Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
True, but likely it'd be weaker and almost dissipated at that point. Maybe I'm wrong.
I don't see why it wouldn't regain at least some strength once it goes through Florida/Georgia and goes back out into the warm Atlantic along the Carolinas.
I don't see why it wouldn't regain at least some strength once it goes through Florida/Georgia and goes back out into the warm Atlantic along the Carolinas.
It very well could rapidly intensify after it reaches the warm Gulf Stream waters of the Atlantic
Wonder if Franklin has churned up some cooler water beneath the surface and that will prevent Idalia from restrengthening. Then again it wasn't over that area. We'll see. Idalia will probably lose its steam after land interaction
Also, more models showing the recurve now. GFS goes out 7 days thats why it's showing the further path.
Current map with recent tracks. The blue is the HWF model
Tue 29Aug 5pEDT: Winds 100mph(155km/h), moving North at 16mph(26km/h), pressure 972mb. Cat2. Air recon while ago found pressure 968mb. Pressure lowers, winds increase a little after. Eye visible on infrared satellite now. Visible should clear out soon. NHC still with 125mph near landfall.
Center about 195miles(310km) SW of Tampa, about 300miles(480km) S of Tallahassee. Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 160miles(260km).
Changes:
-Landfall point shifted slightly West from Steinhatchee up to near Perry.
-Hurricane Watch GA coast, part of SC coast added.
-Hurricane Watch discontinued Englewood to Longboat Key.
-Storm Surge Watch discontinued South of Bonita Beach (Bonita Springs / North Naples and Southward)
None of the models really indicated any chance at re-intensification off the Carolinas. I'd guess it's just not the right conditions.
I haven't looked more into the models yet, but NHC in their 5pEDT discussion text says "After Idalia's center moves offshore over the western Atlantic, strong shear is likely to limit re-intensification, and the official forecast essentially flatlines the intensity on days 2-5."
And for the track: " Uncertainty in the track forecast is still quite large after 48 hours, with many of the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane models still show the storm moving out to sea. As a result, the official track forecast continues to show slow motion on days 4 and 5."
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
