Atlantic -Idalia forms August 27, 2023 (locations, date, flood, Tampa Bay)

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

Tampa ain’t ever going to get any hurricanes. They got a shield.

It's me is the reason. Anywhere i go it won't rain or get a real cane. Now it's even a much bigger nothing burger as it is so far west i won't get much wind or any rain to amount to much. Be lucky to get 2". All the heavy rain is way on the east side of the state or south of me.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Winterbeard

Define nothing burger? I think I'll likely get 3-4" of much needed rain. I call that a win for my area, you wanted rain too, and you'll get some. It's the best case scenario for our area, nothing apocalyptic but certainly breaks the monotony of 95 degree days with rain always just out of reach on the eastern horizon.

Where ever it does make landfall, I'm thinking Steinhatchee-ish area, it's going to make a whole mess, and Idalia will be the latest "I" name storm to be retired.

It's gonna go even more west since i posted so even a bigger nothing burger. I sure won't see 3 to 4" of rain. It is has been a curse the last 4 years it has been so dry.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Star691

There’s also a chance that it could recurve after it reaches the Atlantic, then hit FL again on the east coast of the state.

Not gonna happen as the high is building in and keeping it west. The CDO is looking better with time.

[Star691]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Not gonna happen as the high is building in and keeping it west. The CDO is looking better with time.

Anything can happen. Even with todays technology, they can still be difficult to predict.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Star691

Anything can happen. Even with todays technology, they can still be difficult to predict.

Well there is no time for it get any closer to me as it is already close and gonna go a beam of me in a few hours. This is another miss for me.

[Psychoma]

Some random obs: as of 7pEDT

Surge Obs - Gulf, from South to North:
Key West +0.8ft (peak was maybe +1ft)
Vaca Key +0.6ft
Naples +2ft
Fort Myers (location at city on the river, not beach) +1.3ft
Tampa Bay +1.5ft
Clearwater +1.4ft
Ceadar Key +1.7ft
Apalachicola +1.2ft
Panama City Beach +1ft

Surge Obs - Atlantic, from South to North:
Jacksonville / St. John's River: +0.4ft
Fernandina Beach, FL +0.4ft
mouth of Savannah River / near Tybee Island +0.7ft
Charleston Harbor, SC +0.9ft
Myrtle Beach, SC +0.7ft
Wrightsville Beach, SC +0.5ft
Morehead City / Beaufort, NC +0.5ft

[Cambium]

8 PM EDT Tue Aug 29
Location: 26.9°N 84.7°W
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pres: 965 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Rapid intensification is official
(70 to 105 mph in 24 hrs)

7 mb drop in pressure, winds to follow

High-end Cat-3 hurricane likely, maybe more

It’s coming together now, whole structure is

[Psychoma]

Tue 29Aug 8pEDT: Winds 105mph(165km/h), moving North (just East of North at 10degrees) at 16mph(26km/h), pressure 965mb. Cat2. Air recon while ago found pressure 968mb. That's 7mb drop in 3hrs. Pressure drops, winds rise thereafter.

Center about 155miles(250km) WSW of Tampa, about 245miles(390km) S of Tallahassee. Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 160miles(260km).


*Jinx, lol, actually you beat me to it by 2min

[Psychoma]

Per WPC the large band just along/off the W FL coast will bring the tornado threat, tornado watch will likely be issued later this evening as well. Tornado threats will continue until storm offshore in Atlantic, mainly to the NE of storm center, and Northward moving bands across FL. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2060.html


Now up to 10k without power across FL (some of this will be normal outages or not direct hurricane impact, but will grow due to storm as evening goes on). https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida


Edit: and there's the tornado Watch now issued:

[Psychoma]

Reminder that hurricanes tend to wobble around, moving in an average direction: