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Tue 29Aug 11aEDT/10aCDT: Winds 85mph(140km/h), moving North at 14mph(22km/h), pressure 977mb. Satellite shows 'hot towers' firing around center...getting it's core/eye together. Steady strengthening - we'll see pressure drop faster when rapid intensification starts.
Changes:
-NHC with 125mph winds about to make landfall 8am in the morning.
-Surge raised for:
Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...6-9 ft
other areas look about same.
-Watch/Warnings expanded North along Carolina's (again just time based issued).
Tides are also higher with current moon cycle.
Surge Obs - Gulf, from South to North:
Key West +0.8ft
Vaca Key +0.4ft
Naples +1.2ft
Fort Myers (location at city on the river, not beach) +0.7ft
Tampa Bay +0.9ft
Clearwater +0.7ft
Ceadar Key +0.8ft
Apalachicola +1.1ft
Surge Obs - Atlantic, from South to North:
Jacksonville / St. John's River: +0.3ft
Fernandina Beach, FL +0.6ft
mouth of Savannah River / near Tybee Island +1.0ft
Charleston Harbor, SC +0.8ft
Myrtle Beach, SC +0.6FT
Current forecasts would have it make landfall in pretty much the emptiest part of Florida's coast. All the media and chaser types may find it difficult to cover this given the lack of a road network and urban areas in that section of Florida. The few towns that you find along the coast there are usually one way in and out and don't offer much for shelter. It would be a risk to go anywhere west of US 98.
No, the loop back south is because of a trough digging down in the East, thats why its not coming up the eastern seaboard and also blockage in the Atlantic so its projecting the curve back south.
Interesting that the GFS is keeping it a cat 1.
As for me, rain and a bit of wind. Finished all my prep this morning. Now we wait.
Anywhere with winds around 40mph or higher can expect to start and see scattered tree/power issues begin.
Reminder impacts will reach far inland with a major hurricane. Can view some of those risk areas here (click the "Threats and Impacts" tab for interactive map): https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=tae which can kind of be seen in this graphic:
And some local NWS products they've posted as well:
Tallahassee really on that border line of major impact or not (GFS brings over, Euro keeps East).
Current forecasts would have it make landfall in pretty much the emptiest part of Florida's coast. All the media and chaser types may find it difficult to cover this given the lack of a road network and urban areas in that section of Florida. The few towns that you find along the coast there are usually one way in and out and don't offer much for shelter. It would be a risk to go anywhere west of US 98.
Is that because there are no beaches hence no development?
Hopefully the wetlands in that area are relatively intact to help buffer the storm.
Interesting that the GFS is keeping it a cat 1.
As for me, rain and a bit of wind. Finished all my prep this morning. Now we wait.
Yeah, it keeps it weak. NHC still has it a Cat 3 right before landfall.
Rain bands hitting the west side coast. Center of it still WELL off shore.
As of 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
...IDALIA STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
Tue 29Aug 2pEDT: Winds 90mph(150km/h), moving North at 15mph(24km/h), pressure 974mb. Outflow on satellite improving. Still steady strengthening. Forecast track unchanged. Center about 240miles(390km) SW of Tampa. Hurricane winds extend up to 15miles(30km) from center, TS winds 160miles(260km).
Changes: all Watch/Warnings for Cuba discontinued. Heavy rain bands still affecting tho.
Per WPC the band over South / West FL has a low but non-zero chance of tornadoes. Low enough to not warrant a tornado watch although it has had a tornado warning earlier. Their discussion says more favorable environment as moves up more later into Ft Myers / Tampa region. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2058.html
There’s also a chance that it could recurve after it reaches the Atlantic, then hit FL again on the east coast of the state.
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