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Mon 28Aug 5pEDT/4pCDT: Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving North at 8mph(13km/h), pressure 987mb.
Slight bump West in track, Watch/Warnings adjusted accordingly. NHC now with 120mph winds near center while 150miles offshore around 2amEDT Wed morning...leaves room for strengthening in that time before big bend landfall. Storm surge values for big bend up slightly to 8-12ft.
You have more patience than I. I apologize if I misquoted.
I took a look back at his TikTok (6 minutes at most, more my attention span.) on 8/24 - and "Could we have a tropical storm on the west coast of FL? Absolutely and that's what I think is going to happen. If it stays over water long enough and takes a track more over to the Big Bend area then there's a chance it becomes a minimal hurricane".
Now again, I'm not blaming him. I'm saying that whatever is predicting the intensity of these storms is not taking into account the recent records for rapid intensification and the record high SSTs.
He's just answering hypotheticals. 6 days in advance. That's why there's a question mark.
Not sure why you want to fault this guy for being thorough reporting EVERYTHING that's "possible".
But he sure didn't guarantee anything.
So your opinion is the entire weather service business is not realizing something VERY IMPORTANT that YOU realize?
Go away. Don't want to lose power, air conditioning or internet.
It's gonna be a nothing burger for you and me as long as it stays 80 miles or more offshore from me as the core heavy winds will not even get close to the coast unless it pulls a Charlie and dose a freaky hook a few hours before landfall.
I may get wind to 70mph in gust and i hope at least 5" of rain. I need 6" to be normal for this month since i have only had 2" total. You can bank on my pow wow going out around mid nite.
Forward speed will pick up later on Tuse so not enough time to blow up to a super cane with gust to 190mph or more. If the forward speed was super slow and the upper levels were perfect we would have seen a CAT5. This storm won't be super big since the strongest winds will stay 50 or mile offshore unless the track changes.
Never trust these systems until it is a beam of you and moving away.
Whatever forecasters use these days to predict intensity of storms needs to be re-examined. A few days ago local forecasters were saying it would be a TS, maybe a Cat 1 by the time it hit, now we're looking at 3. Wouldn't surprise me if it went to a 4 at the rate it's intensifying, those water temperatures are no joke.
No one can call these storms even a few hours out on tracks or how strong they can blow up into. Only i know what is gonna happen. Gonna be a nothing burger for you as well since you are well inland. Forward speed will be tooo fast for anything crazy on winds.
No one can call these storms even a few hours out on tracks or how strong they can blow up into. Only i know what is gonna happen. Gonna be a nothing burger for you as well since you are well inland. Forward speed will be tooo fast for anything crazy on winds.
You're awfully confident. A little while ago, it was going to be the end of you. A few hours later and it's a nothing burger
Doesn't need to be a "4 or 5" to inflict serious damage, considering these surges. This thing could intensify even greater than the predictions made and catch many sleeping. Water temps are perfect for intensification.
You're awfully confident. A little while ago, it was going to be the end of you. A few hours later and it's a nothing burger
I said it was a nothing burger a day ago bro unless it does something freaky like Charlie did. 110mph winds would take every house in my hood out. It would pull up a bowl of water 13ft high. But if it stays 80 miles offshore from me then i just gotta worry about no A/C as the power goes out if a gnat farts around here.
Doesn't need to be a "4 or 5" to inflict serious damage, considering these surges. This thing could intensify even greater than the predictions made and catch many sleeping. Water temps are perfect for intensification.
Forward speed will be too fast as the dig down from the north grabs it. If the dig down would miss it then it could stall and blow up with gust over 190.
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I apologize if I misquoted.
