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Whatever forecasters use these days to predict intensity of storms needs to be re-examined. A few days ago local forecasters were saying it would be a TS, maybe a Cat 1 by the time it hit, now we're looking at 3. Wouldn't surprise me if it went to a 4 at the rate it's intensifying, those water temperatures are no joke.
The science that goes into meteorological forecasts can only do so much. It is the same way with forecasting blizzards in the north and nor'easters on the east coast. Once you catch wind of a storm brewing, you pay attention to forecasts over the coming days. No one with a crystal ball is going to tell you 4 days out the precise impact and location of a storm.
The science that goes into meteorological forecasts can only do so much. It is the same way with forecasting blizzards in the north and nor'easters on the east coast. Once you catch wind of a storm brewing, you pay attention to forecasts over the coming days. No one with a crystal ball is going to tell you 4 days out the precise impact and location of a storm.
Oh I understand that, but it seems foolhardy, knowing they can't predict it, to tell people 5 days out that it will only be a tropical storm (Dennis Phillips btw, probably the most trusted local forecaster) when we know rapid intensification of hurricane systems with warmer waters is feasible. Just say there's a storm coming, be prepared. I guess if they say be prepared for a major hurricane they get accused of fearmongering. They can't win either way.
Seems like the actual models need to be looked while we have these higher SSTs.
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Originally Posted by brownedbits
The science that goes into meteorological forecasts can only do so much. It is the same way with forecasting blizzards in the north and nor'easters on the east coast. Once you catch wind of a storm brewing, you pay attention to forecasts over the coming days. No one with a crystal ball is going to tell you 4 days out the precise impact and location of a storm.
Except, I think most of us have a memory of forecasting being better in the past.
there are some animations on youtube of Hurricane tracking cones from previous years, and it seems there was some shift after 2016 where these storms became less predictable.
Here's NHC's historical verification page for storm location and intensity from the last several decades through 2022. Data varies year to year (and storm to storm) but overall as a whole storm location and intensity predictions do improve from NHC over time, some years better than others, sometimes improvement flat or wrong way for a few years, but long term average becomes better. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml
Also, they are testing a 7 day storm cone map in house but that will be several years before ready.
Mon 28Aug 11aEDT/10aCDT: Winds 65mph(100km/h), moving North at 8mph(13km/h), pressure 990mb. Satellite view improving. Likely hurricane soon. TS winds extend up to 105miles(165km) from center, mainly East and South.
Some Watches changed to Warnings as they are time based and now we're closer to event time. Watches for the FL East coast, GA and SC coast likely come later today.
NHC has started doing live videos going over general storm info and impacts (using products from their home page so not much new info but if you want a video w pics of their current thinking): next one is scheduled for 1130a Mon: http://youtube.com/user/NWSNHC
Oh I understand that, but it seems foolhardy, knowing they can't predict it, to tell people 5 days out that it will only be a tropical storm (Dennis Phillips btw, probably the most trusted local forecaster) when we know rapid intensification of hurricane systems with warmer waters is feasible. Just say there's a storm coming, be prepared. I guess if they say be prepared for a major hurricane they get accused of fearmongering. They can't win either way.
Seems like the actual models need to be looked while we have these higher SSTs.
Well this critique is a good example of "can't win".
Say "there's a storm coming"??
There are meteorological SYSTEMS they can show and categorize those "storms" but they don't need to bother our pretty little heads about it?
I never heard anyone say "it's ONLY going to be a tropical storm" five days out.
Funny that you suggest that guy said and believes that as if he's not as intelligent as the average viewer.
I never heard anyone say "it's ONLY going to be a tropical storm" five days out.
Well then you missed his update on Friday night. And I quote "Beneficial rain, we get stronger wind gusts from our regular afternoon thunder storms, nothing to worry about, a tropical storm". He's my go to in situations like this, but it appears he's being misled by the models.
I'm not blaming him, I'm suggesting that the models need to take into account unusually high SSTs which I don't think they're doing. They've been caught out by Idalia, Ian and Michael and possibly some others in recent times. Perhaps intensity shouldn't be forecast until 24 hours before landfall, I don't know the answer. Just an observation really.
Oh I understand that, but it seems foolhardy, knowing they can't predict it, to tell people 5 days out that it will only be a tropical storm (Dennis Phillips btw, probably the most trusted local forecaster) when we know rapid intensification of hurricane systems with warmer waters is feasible. Just say there's a storm coming, be prepared. I guess if they say be prepared for a major hurricane they get accused of fearmongering. They can't win either way.
Seems like the actual models need to be looked while we have these higher SSTs.
The forecasters are darned if they do and darned if they don't. I can't begin to count how many times people have been wildly upset because a hurricane wasn't as bad as possibly predicted. Instead of being grateful, they are mad at the forecasters and the media for "fearmongering". They expect exact predictions of where, when and what intensity every time.
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