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I have tried to avoid the media feeding frenzy over a relatively irrelevant state called Iowa (no offense, Iowans). But the early results are interesting, and if I were a die-hard Republican party official, I'd be wetting my pants right about now. It's too early to tell, but if last night is to be believed, we could be headed for a genuine, knock-down, drag-out civil war within the GOP.
On the one hand, we have the well-funded, articulate, polished, clean-cut, even if a bit too slippery for dye-in-the-wool conservatives, candidate in Romney. He's clearly the one guy above all others in that party who is capable of defeating Barack Obama. There's simply no question that he would be the most formidable among them.
And yet, it is clear after last night that the true conservatives in the party are no jerking around when they say they have no intention of voting for him. In fact, they're more serious about not voting for Romney than they were about McCain. At least with McCain, they had a bad-ass war hero that they could kinda, sorta respect, and he had established his conservative credentials/occasional center pragmatist.
Not so with Romney, apparently. No, apparently, in the eyes of a significant voting bloc within the party...a vote for Mitt is no different than a vote for Obama. And that's a huge hole that doesn't seem to be getting any shallower, no matter how much Mitt tries to spend his way out of it.
The more obvious problem for Republicans beside the tepid support for Romney is, he's not going away. He is so financially powerful, so well-connected, so well-organized at this point, that he has essentially assured himself relevance right to the bitter end of the primary season and onto the party convention in August. And that, my friends, could be an even bigger problem for the Republicans than the Billary-Obama split. Because unlike 2008, Republicans don't have a savior who caught fire and energized the party, as the Democrats did with Obama.
Another problem for the Republican party is the other guy who isn't going away: Ron Paul.
Paul is a guy who's candidacy in 2012 is actually a good 4 to 8 years in the making -- perhaps longer. For most of his career, he's been regarded by the establishment on both sides as a complete lunatic. And he continues to be downplayed by Republicans and their propaganda machine. It's not that they fear that Paul could win and turn their party upside down; it's that they know he cannot win, but that he could siphon a significant number of voters away from the GOP to help Barack become re-elected. He is the GOP's Ralph Nader. Hell, he's the GOP Nader on steroids. He's Nader/Perot. He's a genuine GOP party problem, but he's not going away. And he's not going away because the GOP simply doesn't have the means to control him or his candidacy. Paul's novel strategy avoids the mainstream media and instead relies on a growing online cult of voters who are born to be rebels. There's no shutting them up. No shutting them down. Such efforts, in fact, only fuel their fire. Like it or not, GOP, Paul is here to stay...right to the bitter end. And unlike in the past, people in Paul's camp are so angry at the 'mainstream' GOP that they just might be fed up enough to declare themselves a third party. Even if Republicans kept them off of all major ballots, they would still not succeed in motivating the Paul voters to vote for their GOP puppet, so the bottom line is still the same.
And what we're left with is a third voting block in the GOP. The voting bloc that Karl Rove and Fox News have been cultivating over the past 15 years. A blend of social values conservatives, American nationalists, and corporate welfare advocates. This is the so-called 'mainstream' of the Republican party. This is what's left. This is the voting bloc that Rick Santorum represents. If this were 2000 and 2004, Santorum would be a serious threat to take the White House. He would be bankrolled well, and most of the party would be behind him. But this is 2012, and the country has a lot of anger and a lot of issues right now. There's no candidate that really stands out for the GOP. If I were the RNC chair, I would be doing all I could to get Santorum and others to drop out of the race by next month, and I would be trying to focus Romney's message to occasionally acknowledge Ron Paul and his committed voters while balancing that with tougher rhetoric on social issues. He's probably the one guy who can do that and somehow find away to get away with it. But the longer the race continues with a divided caucus, the greater the risk for an epic disaster in summer for the GOP.
I had one Bible study teacher as a young teen that tried to teach a class on 'other religions' as cults, and when I told my parents they said I didn't have to go back to her class. I am so glad I was not raised with such stupidity.
I'm so glad you weren't raised with such stupidity, either dixiegirl. Thank you for being a voice of reason when it comes to religious bigotry. (Tried repping you but I couldn't yet. I guess I've got to spread the love around a little bit.)
I should imagine that sensible Republicans are horrified by their primary process so far. Lets be honest, it has been more of a circus than a political debate and it has failed to unearth a truly high-quality candidate. Romney is probably the best of a not very imposing bunch.
Nothing any Republican does during the primary season can be anywhere near as horrifying as the Obama presidency.
It all comes down to delegates, and at this point, it looks like they will be evenly split. I suggest you take a crash course in American election process before opening your mouth again.
I have tried to avoid the media feeding frenzy over a relatively irrelevant state called Iowa (no offense, Iowans). But the early results are interesting, and if I were a die-hard Republican party official, I'd be wetting my pants right about now. It's too early to tell, but if last night is to be believed, we could be headed for a genuine, knock-down, drag-out civil war within the GOP.
On the one hand, we have the well-funded, articulate, polished, clean-cut, even if a bit too slippery for dye-in-the-wool conservatives, candidate in Romney. He's clearly the one guy above all others in that party who is capable of defeating Barack Obama. There's simply no question that he would be the most formidable among them.
And yet, it is clear after last night that the true conservatives in the party are no jerking around when they say they have no intention of voting for him. In fact, they're more serious about not voting for Romney than they were about McCain. At least with McCain, they had a bad-ass war hero that they could kinda, sorta respect, and he had established his conservative credentials/occasional center pragmatist.
Not so with Romney, apparently. No, apparently, in the eyes of a significant voting bloc within the party...a vote for Mitt is no different than a vote for Obama. And that's a huge hole that doesn't seem to be getting any shallower, no matter how much Mitt tries to spend his way out of it.
The more obvious problem for Republicans beside the tepid support for Romney is, he's not going away. He is so financially powerful, so well-connected, so well-organized at this point, that he has essentially assured himself relevance right to the bitter end of the primary season and onto the party convention in August. And that, my friends, could be an even bigger problem for the Republicans than the Billary-Obama split. Because unlike 2008, Republicans don't have a savior who caught fire and energized the party, as the Democrats did with Obama.
Another problem for the Republican party is the other guy who isn't going away: Ron Paul.
Paul is a guy who's candidacy in 2012 is actually a good 4 to 8 years in the making -- perhaps longer. For most of his career, he's been regarded by the establishment on both sides as a complete lunatic. And he continues to be downplayed by Republicans and their propaganda machine. It's not that they fear that Paul could win and turn their party upside down; it's that they know he cannot win, but that he could siphon a significant number of voters away from the GOP to help Barack become re-elected. He is the GOP's Ralph Nader. Hell, he's the GOP Nader on steroids. He's Nader/Perot. He's a genuine GOP party problem, but he's not going away. And he's not going away because the GOP simply doesn't have the means to control him or his candidacy. Paul's novel strategy avoids the mainstream media and instead relies on a growing online cult of voters who are born to be rebels. There's no shutting them up. No shutting them down. Such efforts, in fact, only fuel their fire. Like it or not, GOP, Paul is here to stay...right to the bitter end. And unlike in the past, people in Paul's camp are so angry at the 'mainstream' GOP that they just might be fed up enough to declare themselves a third party. Even if Republicans kept them off of all major ballots, they would still not succeed in motivating the Paul voters to vote for their GOP puppet, so the bottom line is still the same.
And what we're left with is a third voting block in the GOP. The voting bloc that Karl Rove and Fox News have been cultivating over the past 15 years. A blend of social values conservatives, American nationalists, and corporate welfare advocates. This is the so-called 'mainstream' of the Republican party. This is what's left. This is the voting bloc that Rick Santorum represents. If this were 2000 and 2004, Santorum would be a serious threat to take the White House. He would be bankrolled well, and most of the party would be behind him. But this is 2012, and the country has a lot of anger and a lot of issues right now. There's no candidate that really stands out for the GOP. If I were the RNC chair, I would be doing all I could to get Santorum and others to drop out of the race by next month, and I would be trying to focus Romney's message to occasionally acknowledge Ron Paul and his committed voters while balancing that with tougher rhetoric on social issues. He's probably the one guy who can do that and somehow find away to get away with it. But the longer the race continues with a divided caucus, the greater the risk for an epic disaster in summer for the GOP.
It all comes down to delegates, and at this point, it looks like they will be evenly split. I suggest you take a crash course in American election process before opening your mouth again.
Could someone please pass me a bucket pf popcorn and a Snuggie because watching the Republicans backbiting, sniping and snarking is becoming highly entertaining.
Ron Paul did not win the bragging rights in Iowa, but he walks away with just as many Iowa delegates as Romney and Santorum. Paul is sitting at 2nd place currently in NH and is 3rd in both SC and FL.
SC and FL haven't polled recently enough and we're pretty much blind there. We've no idea what's going on in those states. All Paul needs is to stay a close second before super-Tuesday as all states but Florida split the delegates.
It all comes down to delegates, and at this point, it looks like they will be evenly split. I suggest you take a crash course in American election process before opening your mouth again.
True, to a point. If delegates were the only concern, then Bachmann would not have dropped out, and Newt Gingrich would not have been P'Oed with a 4th place finish.
The point is - the Iowa Caucus is NOT about the delegates - it is about the momentum. It helps to narrow the field and throw support behind 3-4 candidates to move onto the future contests. Do you think that Obama would have won in 2008 if he had come in 3rd or 4th and Clinton was 1st? Probably not - they all got close to the same number of delegates from the state. The point was - Obama gained traction, got tons of money and support, and pushed forward.
The same could happen with Santorum. And Romney's survival, in a state which he was not expected to win, could also help him later in SC, especially if he has a decisive win in NH.
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Romney Won in Iowa, Ron Paul Lost
