Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (fit in, homeschooling)

[sanz7887]

Originally Posted by EDS_

You are fumbling much of that badly.

The CDC botched the first round of tests. A melange of bureaucratic foot dragging, much within The FDA, slowed academic and private development. Over time people will write books about this and careers will rightfully be ruined. And hopefully we can get to a place in which The CDC, NIH and others do not have to wait for the FDA during emergencies.

Dr. Fauci is Director of The National Institute of Allergy and infectious Diseases. Blame belongs at feet of The CDC and FDA.

I agree we did botch up the whole testing cycle. Although they have picked up otherwise apart from US , there is no country who has done close to 3 million tests

[Ralph_Kirk]

Originally Posted by calgirlinnc

I said "limited shut downs". I never claimed that I nor anyone else was in favor of ignoring the whole thing. I have said repeatedly that the elderly and the fragile could/should be isolated while young and healthy people do the work of the country.

"Elderly and fragile" in the US is 30 prcent of the working adult population, once you include risk factors. But a good proportion of white collar workers are working from home anyway, so we're talking about service sector workers who will come into the greatest contact with multitudes of people, which puts them at even greater risk.

Herd immunity means the virus can find no hosts. If it has no hosts, how does it live?

"Herd immunity" does not mean the virus cannot find a host. Herd immunity means that, at the 80% level, four out of five persons will not become hosts.



Herd immunity is all we had before the vaccine for each disease was created. "herd immunity" has never resulted in any disease, ever, disappearing.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by sanz7887

I agree we did botch up the whole testing cycle. Although they have picked up otherwise apart from US , there is no country who has done close to 3 million tests

What are the per capita numbers, though? It seems silly to talk about absolute numbers of tests.

[calgirlinnc]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

1. Herd immunity requires 50% of the population to become infected (that's the bare minimum -- could be more like 70%). How does that solve our problem? We'd have 150 million plus cases (minimum) and possibly a million deaths. What you are suggesting is that we simply allow so many people to become infected that no one else can be infected since they've already been infected. This doesn't even take into account how we'd protect the older folks from the younger folks.

2. Did you see the numbers I posted regarding 18-64 year-olds? If 70% of them got it, we'd have 6 million plus hospitalizations, and that's assuming zero older or younger people got it. How would we manage that if we only have 900,000 hospital beds?

The opposite approach is to keep the world shut down for 18 months to two years.
The goal is to keep millions of people from dying. That is the track we are currently on.

Since you like throwing out hypotheticals and assumptions, let's imagine it's July 2021 and we are still in quarantine. Nobody has attended school or church for over a year. Homelessness is rampant. People do not have food.
(Even now the supply chains are threatened. Farmers are breaking eggs and dumping milk due to the drop in purchasing.)

Other diseases like measles are now out of control because people don't have health insurance or money to get their children vaccinated. There will be riots and looting in every major city in America. We will run out of money to run the hospitals or pay doctors and nurses. Opioid addiction is now even worse, as is alcoholism. There will have to be a nationwide curfew enforced by the military because it will otherwise be impossible to keep people in their homes.

Community ties will have broken down because everyone is fearful and no one can gather together to celebrate anything from a birthday to an athletic event.

And millions of people will STILL die.

So before you imply that I am being callous, maybe try looking at this from another perspective.

And again, since you missed it the first time, I really am done discussing anything with you.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by sanz7887

I agree we did botch up the whole testing cycle. Although they have picked up otherwise apart from US , there is no country who has done close to 3 million tests

Getting a good number of tests in the field even a few weeks earlier would have saved much sickness, many lives and likely trillions of lost dollars.


https://www.technologyreview.com/202...virus-testing/

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by calgirlinnc

The opposite approach is to keep the world shut down for 18 months to two years.
The goal is to keep millions of people from dying. That is the track we are currently on.

Since you like throwing out hypotheticals and assumptions, let's imagine it's July 2021 and we are still in quarantine. Nobody has attended school for a year. Homelessness is rampant. People do not have food.
(Even now the supply chains are threatened. Farmers are breaking eggs and dumping milk due to the drop in purchasing.)

Other diseases like measles are now out of control because people don't have health insurance or money to get their children vaccinated. There will be riots and looting in every major city in America. We will run out of money to run the hospitals or pay doctors and nurses. Opioid addiction is now even worse, as is alcoholism. There will have to be a nationwide curfew enforced by the military because it will otherwise be impossible to keep people in their homes. Millions of people will STILL die.

So before you imply that I am being callous, maybe try looking at this from another perspective.

And again, since you missed it the first time, I really am done discussing anything with you.

1. I'm not into assumptions. I'm into data. I'm deliberately trying to avoid assumptions here.

2. You're presenting a false dichotomy. We don't have to choose between sending all of the young people back to work now and waiting for two years. We are at or very near peak virus right now. To open things up would be terrible. Our case numbers will likely be much lower in a couple of months. If we can combine widespread testing, quarantining of positives and mandatory masks, we might be able to open things up for a lot of industries in a couple of months. It will have to be strategic, but to open things up now really would be like stopping a round of antibiotics halfway through, only to have to start the round all over again when the premature stop doesn't kill the bug (thanks to Katana for that analogy).

Remember, our half million plus cases in the US started with one case (or a handful). Business as usual with several hundred thousand active cases as the "seeds" would be catastrophic. I'm not advocating that we stay completely shut down for two years, but we do need much lower case numbers and a strategic plan, along with resources like masks and testing capacity (preferably at-home tests).

[Ralph_Kirk]

Originally Posted by calgirlinnc

T



Other diseases like measles are now out of control because people don't have health insurance or money to get their children vaccinated. .

So why has herd immunity not worked with measles? There was no vaccine for measles when I was a kid over half a century ago, so it should have died out long ago because of herd immunity, right?

[elan]

The Food Bank lines this weekend really alarmed me. As soon as we peak, we need to get back to work. The elderly and ill can stay in. I don't say this lightly, however we can't go on like this.

[Ralph_Kirk]

Originally Posted by elan

The Food Bank lines this weekend really alarmed me. As soon as we peak, we need to get back to work. The elderly and ill can stay in. I don't say this lightly, however we can't go on like this.

Most elderly and sick live with those who work.

[sanz7887]

Antibody Testing Could Help North Texans Learn if They Already Recovered from Coronavirus

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...virus/2350210/

Hopefully from this Friday we would be able to know