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Yes, anyone is more likely to die in a car accident than from the CV.
Does that mean we should ban cars and make everyone walk? (That is the equivalent to the CV response). No, we take reasonable precautions such as speed limits and seat belts and air bags and so forth.
Actually, that's false. We average 38,000 deaths on roadways in the US per year, and Covid will likely eclipse that in 3-4 months.
What you're also missing is that, if we didn't take the precautions we are taking with Covid, it likely dwarf car crash deaths. Per many expert predictions, nearly everyone in the US would get Covid if we didn't take serious precautions. If 200-300 million people got infected, we'd have 2-3 million deaths. Even if the number were half of that, it would far outweigh the number of car crash deaths.
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Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
Some like Dr. Fauci have stated that the US needs to remain shut down until there are 0 new cases and 0
deaths...all while ignoring the tens of thousands of deaths every year from other diseases. Why this reaction? Why now?
Then we have "experts" like Bill Gates pontificating that the world cannot move forward unless everyone gets vaccinated. Interesting considering he did not have his own children vaccinated against common childhood illnesses.
1. Where did Fauci say we need to remain shut down until there are zero cases?
2. Regarding the "but X disease kills more" argument: This is only true because we are taking these precautions with Covid. If we didn't, Covid would be the number one killer in the US. Most predictions show that it could be close to matching deaths by all causes in the US.
Also, and this is important, we have a short-term timeframe with Covid. If we could ensure there would be no car crash deaths in the future if we shut down for a month or two, we might do it. Ditto with heart disease. But that's not the case. To bring car crash deaths down by 90%, we'd have to stop driving cars forever. For Covid, we have a limited timeframe pitted against very, very large numbers of deaths if no action is taken.
3. That's completely false about Gates' kids. Come on. He's one of the biggest vaccine champions there is.
I think you're playing fast and loose with a lot of facts (Fauci, Gates, car crash figures, etc.).
The number of non-COVID pneumonia deaths look very high lately.
Texas has 2481 deaths from Pneumonia with 3 related to COVID-19 from 02/01/20 to 04/04/20. In 2016, there was 1437 deaths for the whole year. It would be bout 240 deaths for February and March of 2016.
Is it possible that the total COVID-19 deaths is 2000 lower than it should be(2481-240= 2241)?
That's really sad actually. (I was only joking regarding my marriage though).
There was a half funny/ half sad tweet that tagged HGTV, something to the effect that when this is all over, the open concept floor plan will be out of vogue. Everyone will want rooms that can be closed off.
Yeah. My office is one wide open space with cubicles tightly packed in. The whole 6 feet for social distancing just wouldn't work. That's why I wonder about the reopening the economy by May if there are still thousands of deaths a day. I would give anything to have a closed off office.
The number of non-COVID pneumonia deaths look very high lately.
Texas has 2481 deaths from Pneumonia with 3 related to COVID-19 from 02/01/20 to 04/04/20. In 2016, there was 1437 deaths for the whole year. It would be bout 240 deaths for February and March of 2016.
Is it possible that the total COVID-19 deaths is 2000 lower than it should be(2481-240= 2241)?
Actually, that's false. We average 38,000 deaths on roadways in the US per year, and Covid will likely eclipse that in 3-4 months.
I didn't say "in the US." Over 1.3 million people die worldwide each year from car accidents.
And in the US, fatalities in car accidents are the leading cause of death ages 5-29. If a parent is worried about their child dying, don't put them in a car.
Right now the worldwide death toll from CV is a little over 114,000 people.
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What you're also missing is that, if we didn't take the precautions we are taking with Covid, it likely dwarf car crash deaths. Per many expert predictions, nearly everyone in the US would get Covid if we didn't take serious precautions. If 200-300 million people got infected, we'd have 2-3 million deaths. Even if the number were half of that, it would far outweigh the number of car crash deaths.
What you missed is that we were discussing odds. Your odds from dying in a car crash are approximately 1 in 77. Your odds of dying from CV are approximately 1 in ? I've seen it as high as one in 12,500. But the data is constantly changing.
Maybe our response is out of proportion to the risks, because our response also has a cost.
Further, it is illogical to be petrified of dying from CV but not from any other thing. I am more worried about MY child's health now that he can't go do the things that keep him mentally strong than I am from him dying from CV.
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1. Where did Fauci say we need to remain shut down until there are zero cases?
"At Wednesday’s White House briefing, Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-diseases expert and the face of the U.S. response, said we could “relax social distancing” once there’s “no new cases, no deaths,” but the real turning point won’t come until there’s a vaccine."
2. Regarding the "but X disease kills more" argument: This is only true because we are taking these precautions with Covid. If we didn't, Covid would be the number one killer in the US. Most predictions show that it could be close to matching deaths by all causes in the US.
Also, and this is important, we have a short-term timeframe with Covid. If we could ensure there would be no car crash deaths in the future if we shut down for a month or two, we might do it. Ditto with heart disease. But that's not the case. To bring car crash deaths down by 90%, we'd have to stop driving cars forever. For Covid, we have a limited timeframe pitted against very, very large numbers of deaths if no action is taken.
That is not a given. If you had watched the videos linked up thread, you might have learned about how herd immunity is important, especially in respiratory diseases like CV, and how we might have shortened this whole catastrophe to 12 weeks...but how now, it is likely to come back.
Another poster showed some data up thread about the number of deaths from flu/pneumonia in 2018-2019. What many people are asking is why we ignore those deaths, but have ruined millions of lives by worrying about *these* deaths. That is a valid question.
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3. That's completely false about Gates' kids. Come on. He's one of the biggest vaccine champions there is.
I already apologized for not fact checking that. Seems to me you have posted incorrect information before.
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I think you're playing fast and loose with a lot of facts (Fauci, Gates, car crash figures, etc.).
No, I am not. Apart from Gates, my other information is correct and verifiable. For the record, I do not watch nor listen to Alex Jones. I read a lot and from a variety of sources and shockingly they aren't all conservative either.
It's one thing to disagree with someone and another thing to basically call someone a liar.
And then there's this:
"But no society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its overall economic health. Even America’s resources to fight a viral plague aren’t limitless—and they will become more limited by the day as individuals lose jobs, businesses close, and American prosperity gives way to poverty. America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown."
Why couldn't we try to protect the elderly, the ill, the fragile, and let the young and the healthy keep the country going? It's not a question of taking NO measures, but taking reasonable measures.
Last edited by calgirlinnc; 04-12-2020 at 04:37 PM..
No point arguing about odds of death and things like that in the midst of a pandemic that will take many more lives. The whole point of these drastic measures is so the numbers don't get out of control. Govt and health officials know it's lose-lose because if it's is successful, people will say it's an overreaction because not that many people died but people are stubborn. If staying home is driving people crazy, that's better than going crazy cause a loved one died due to people not following rules.
I didn't say "in the US." Over 1.3 million people die worldwide each year from car accidents.
And in the US, fatalities in car accidents are the leading cause of death ages 5-29. If a parent is worried about their child dying, don't put them in a car.
Right now the worldwide death toll from CV is a little over 114,000 people.
Does the number of fatalities in car accidents increase exponentially over time?
If we were to shut down most countries in the world, what would the number of fatalities from car accidents be like?
I didn't say "in the US." Over 1.3 million people die worldwide each year from car accidents.
And in the US, fatalities in car accidents are the leading cause of death ages 5-29. If a parent is worried about their child dying, don't put them in a car.
Right now the worldwide death toll from CV is a little over 114,000 people.
What you missed is that we were discussing odds. Your odds from dying in a car crash are approximately 1 in 77. Your odds of dying from CV are approximately 1 in ? I've seen it as high as one in 12,500. But the data is constantly changing.
You said anyone is more likely to die from a car crash than Covid. Surely "anyone" includes Americans, no? We've hit nearly the annual death toll from car crashes with just a month and a half or so of coronavirus deaths. I don't see how that doesn't disprove "Anyone is more likely to die from a car crash."
And no, your odds of dying in a car crash are not 1 in 77. That is absurd. Again, you need to do more fact checking. 328 million Americans divided by 38,000 crash deaths gives us 1 in 8,361.
You misread the link you posted with the 1 in 77 figure. It was saying that the odds of any given death being the result of a car crash is 1 in 77. That is a very, very different thing.
Again, you need to look at the facts you are using much more closely. If we had a 1 in 77 chance of dying in a car crash each year, we'd pretty much all be dying in car crashes! We'd have a greater than 50% chance of dying in a car crash before the age of 40!
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Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
That is not a given. If you had watched the videos linked up thread, you might have learned about how herd immunity is important, especially in respiratory diseases like CV, and how we might have shortened this whole catastrophe to 12 weeks...but how now, it is likely to come back.
Herd immunity doesn't really happen until about 50% of the population has gotten the virus. That's over 150 million people. Sure, we could have made the curve much shorter, but the death toll would have been much higher.
Btw, I hadn't seen the Fauci line. Interesting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
Another poster showed some data up thread about the number of deaths from flu/pneumonia in 2018-2019. What many people are asking is why we ignore those deaths, but have ruined millions of lives by worrying about *these* deaths. That is a valid question.
No one is saying we should ignore any deaths. But don't you see that a virus that could kill a million plus is a bigger deal than something that kills 30,000?
Quote:
Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
No, I am not. Apart from Gates, my other information is correct and verifiable. For the record, I do not watch nor listen to Alex Jones. I read a lot and from a variety of sources and shockingly they aren't all conservative either.
It's one thing to disagree with someone and another thing to basically call someone a liar.
I'm not saying you're a liar. I'm saying you are missing the details in some of the "facts" you are passing on. This was true with the Gates bit, and it's true with the 1 in 77 stat you passed on above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
And then there's this:
"But no society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its overall economic health. Even America’s resources to fight a viral plague aren’t limitless—and they will become more limited by the day as individuals lose jobs, businesses close, and American prosperity gives way to poverty. America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown."
Why couldn't we try to protect the elderly, the ill, the fragile, and let the young and the healthy keep the country going? It's not a question of taking NO measures, but taking reasonable measures.
Because the best experts in the world think that plan sucks. Even 18-49 year-olds have a 3% hospitalization rate. 50-64 year-olds have an 8% hospitalization rate (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...e3.htm#F1_down). There are 138 million 18-49 year-olds and 63 million 50-64 year-olds, so we'd be looking at 6.5 million hospitalizations just from those two age groups if 70% of them got it. For reference, that is six times the number of hospital beds we have in this country.
Further, those young people also care for the old people. A world in which 70% of the people under 60 get the virus is not a world in which no old people get the virus. There is a reason no experts think this is a good plan.
You said anyone is more likely to die from a car crash than Covid. Surely "anyone" includes Americans, no? We've hit nearly the annual death toll from car crashes with just a month and a half or so of coronavirus deaths. I don't see how that doesn't disprove "Anyone is more likely to die from a car crash."
And no, your odds of dying in a car crash are not 1 in 77. That is absurd. Again, you need to do more fact checking. 328 million Americans divided by 38,000 crash deaths gives us 1 in 8,361."
No one is saying we should ignore any deaths. But don't you see that a virus that could kill a million plus is a bigger deal than something that kills 30,000?
Deaths from the flu and pneumonia are often more than 30,000 annually.
All of this is based on models, models which have been incorrect.
All I am saying is that the economic shutdown is causing hardship for millions. It is a disaster in its own way that we haven't even started to see fully.
I was not wrong about Fauci either, but I notice how you buried that in the middle of your condescending diatribe.
That's lifetime risk, not annual risk. Annual risk is easy to calculate: 38k deaths over 328 million Americans means the odds are about 1 in 8,361.
This is what I'm talking about. You are glossing over the details to try to support your view.
Quote:
Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
Deaths from the flu and pneumonia are often more than 30,000 annually.
All of this is based on models, models which have been incorrect.
All I am saying is that the economic shutdown is causing hardship for millions. It is a disaster in its own way that we haven't even started to see fully.
I was not wrong about Fauci either, but I notice how you buried that in the middle of your condescending diatribe.
I clearly said that I didn't know that about Fauci, and it was interesting.
No on is arguing that there is no hardship caused by the shut downs. I agree that it is a disaster.
But that doesn't mean it is a cure that is worse than the disease. You are vastly underestimated the risk presented by Covid.
I'll take models put forth by experts any day. What's the alternative? Guess? Say that the best epidemiologists in the world don't have knowledge that is any better than that of Joe Everyman?
And FWIW, those flu figures are without us taking the approach we have with Covid. That is what you keep missing. If Covid ends up killing 50k and the flu kills 50k, that doesn't mean Covid isn't any worse than the flu.
Last edited by Wittgenstein's Ghost; 04-12-2020 at 06:18 PM..
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