[Cambium]

Yeah, I decided to start the process tomorrow hope to get them in ground after the rain storm. I'll just cover if frost does happen.

Speaking of frost, it must be nice to live in Litchfield. I think there's a chance of 30 for the hills if things stay clear..

338 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SARATOGA
REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW 33 TO 36.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION...WELL AHEAD OF NORMAL
GROWING PACE DUE TO RECENT WARM WEATHER...WILL BE VULNERABLE
TO AREAS OF FROST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[Cambium]

April 21-24 Storm Update:

Get your rain buckets ready.

That precip amount is for a 72 hour period. Yes that says 5" for parts of Maine.

Latest GFS6z.

[Cambium]

A breathable morning. Current temps from 6am.

[7 Wishes]

I guess no sea breeze yesterday as Bridgeport actually got to 81 (they didn't even get to 80 the day before when everyone else was near/above 90), which was actually warmer than both Hartford and Central Park (both topped at 78) and just 1 degree below normally "warm" Newark (82).

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Looking at Central Park, Newark and Bridgeport's "almanacs" we are just about getting to the point where all the record lows for coming dates are above 32-deg. There was a freak cold wave in early May of 1966 that produced a sub-freezing temperature in Bridgeport (and surprisingly in Philadelphia!) but that is pretty much it. Anything's possible and I know you can get "frost/freeze" conditions on the plants when it's a bit above 32, but I think you're pretty much right on this one if you live in/near the coast. Now even a little inland (i.e. Danbury or Hartford) it's a slightly different story though....

True, we have a big advantage in terms of a longer growing season along the I-95 corridor (as well as those on Long Island, eastern New Jersey, and NYC). Those inland and in the higher elevations of NW CT have to worry about frost longer in spring and early in fall. Although just as you say, there are all time record sub-freezing days, otherwise climo wise we are pretty safe from frost now in the above areas. I think for many of us our next frost will be in early November. I see no below normal temps (if not still above normal) for the next two weeks, and after that, well the odds fall fast even far inland and in the NW Hills.

One other climate note:

People keeping asking me and there has been great discussion at work about how the ‘nights’ have been warmer than normal, at least here along the 95 corridor. Besides the above normal temps (meaning daily highs get higher so nights have much further to fall to get even semi-cool)…the only reason I can think of is that SST are above normal off the East Coast/Tri-State area. All this warmth we are getting has to be absorbed to some extent by the oceans. From the best I can tell, we are running about 3 to 5 F above normal SST wise. As of today – SST are 13 – 14 C (55 – 57 F) off Long Island, NJ, CT…and already nearing 16 C (60 F) near Maryland/VA. Also, a growing large patch of 16 – 18 C (64 – 66 F) SST due east of Delaware Bay that will soon overtake the last of the cooler waters (I've been watching this since late March):




It is only mid April. I think we have a real shot of seeing near 26 C (80 F ) SST to Atlantic City by late August. These warm SST will have two (at least) impacts that I think are likely: 1) I think the warmer than normal SST temps in the coming months will keep summer nights very warm and sultry this hot season. 2) Though we are six months away (lol) , I’m now predicting a warmer than normal fall across the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic (similar to last fall).

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I see no below normal temps (if not still above normal) for the next two weeks..

People keeping asking me and there has been great discussion at work about how the ‘nights’ have been warmer than normal, at least here along the 95 corridor.

Bridgeport (aka I95 corridor) has had 8 nights in April of normal or Below normal "night" temps. I used +/- 2 as normal. Surprisingly Hartford has only had 7.

but since March 26th there has been 10 nights of normal or below normal temps.

Hardcore facts here. I wish we had records for every town.

You'll see the normal minimums in the outlined box. The arrow continues to indicate the turn around point.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Bridgeport (aka I95 corridor) has had 8 nights in April of normal or Below normal "night" temps. I used +/- 2 as normal. Surprisingly Hartford has only had 7.

but since March 26th there has been 10 nights of normal or below normal temps.

Hardcore facts here. I wish we had records for every town.

You'll see the normal minimums in the outlined box. The arrow continues to indicate the turn around point.

If you lump everything higher than normal into the “normal range”…then that might be correct - lol. However, normal is normal and above normal is above normal…no matter how you spin it.

April 2012 at NWS Bridgeport has had only 4 nights (April 3, 6th, 7th, and 14th ) when overnight lows were below normal…the rest of the nights this month were above normal. Using your own chart you can see many nights were 3 to 12 F above normal! That is a significant amount in terms of evening temps. My last frost is normally around April 10th (give or take). Yet this year, I’ve seen maybe 5 nights that went below even 40 F.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I guess no sea breeze yesterday as Bridgeport actually got to 81 (they didn't even get to 80 the day before when everyone else was near/above 90), which was actually warmer than both Hartford and Central Park (both topped at 78) and just 1 degree below normally "warm" Newark (82).

Yes, I saw that.

As of today NWS Bridgeport stands at 6.1 F above normal. As for Central Park, monthly mean April temp stands at 55.7 F (beating 1910 and 2005) for the number 10 spot. We might yet again see another top ten warmest month in the Tri-State area.

Still, I’m loving it, not a cloud in the sky here, light winds, and temp of 63 F.

[nei]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

April 2012 at NWS Bridgeport has had only 4 nights (April 3, 6th, 7th, and 14th ) when overnight lows were below normal…the rest of the nights this month were above normal. Using your own chart you can see many nights were 3 to 12 F above normal! That is a significant amount in terms of evening temps. My last frost is normally around April 10th (give or take). Yet this year, I’ve seen maybe 5 nights that went below even 40 F.

Western MA didn't follow that patten. While we might have had only 6 below average, a few were well below average (10°F below average, lowest 21°F). Anyhow, here's the HPC forecast, probably will get revised upward as the models become more certain.



Looks like 1.5-2" for CT.

[Cambium]

Lucky this isn't winter. With the trof going negative like that and the 988mb 3 day storm it would be 2+ feet of snow for some spots..

Lastest GFS continues. Rain Starts Saturday, Ends Tuesday.

Surface map.................Surface Map.....................850(4000') temps..........24 Hour Precip(yes, 24hr rain total)......Back end snows(Litchfield County)

4 inches of rain for Boston in 24hrs. 1-2" of rain for CT within a 24hr period Monday.


Here's the thing.... If that trough digs and phases with the storm as it comes up the coast, it would be one heck of a snow event. Thats exactly what the Euro showed that one time. Just saying what can and needs to happen for a Winter storm.