[Cambium]

Temps will warm up again next week (as usual) but let me get this weekends cold and maybe snow out of the way first.

When you hear the termonology "benchmark" that means the position over the water that brings the best chance and most snow to the region.

They are saying SouthEast of it so a little too far to bring a lot of accumulations but tracks change within hours.

From Upton: Southern CT and Long Island best chance at snow this weekend.

IT APPEARS THAT A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENDING SATURDAY MORNING.

I CAN FORESEE POPS INCREASING AS WE NEAR THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN LOCALES. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HOW FAST LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TO WHAT EXTENT.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADVISORY LEVELS SNOW ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY FOR LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SRN CT...BUT OVERALL FEEL ANY AMOUNTS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER AMOUNTS NW ZONES...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE FCST DETAILS.

AS THE POLAR VORTEX DIVES SE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...TEMPS WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LACKING SUNDAY.

A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
HIGH/S IN THE 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD TREND COLDER IN TIME.

Minimum Temps for Saturday Night.. Not too bad. Below normal but not by much.

[Cambium]

And here it is... Forecast calls for Pushing 50 degrees next week. 60s in Mid Atlantic. 80s in Florida.

[7 Wishes]

Amazing what a "see saw" we've had (and what a brutul winter Europe has had).

Regarding the NWS summary: "Advisory level" means 2-4 inches, so most areas expected to get 2" or less.....unless the track changes of course. Looks like a lot of it will be late Friday night into Saturday morning, so should be over with and cleaned up quickly. Note that NWS seems to think there's general model agreement.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Note that NWS seems to think there's general model agreement.

Winter Weather flights dropped some new data from the system itself last night so all models started agreeing in general coastal Low movement. I Love those flights. Balloon and ground data can only do so much.

[Mixum]

What about next weekend?

[Cambium]

Saturday February 11, 2012 Snowstorm Update:

Wow. Reliable Short range model the NAM model came in West, wetter and stronger. Widespread half foot snowstorm to CT southern Counties mostly New Haven, , Middlesex, New London & Eastern Windham. Rhode Island and Boston would see up to a foot with this solution.

They are all trending West...

Develops off North Carolina, moves up the coast and blows up near Maine (too late for us) into a 984mb low.





Jackpot zone would be Rhode Island and Boston Area.

[Cambium]

Saturday February 11, 2012 Snowstorm Update:

GFS also came in west. If tonights models show similar results then parts of CT will have their first real snow threat since October. If the models back off then we'll have the same snow threat as Jan. 21st.

Here's my guess and I went AGAINST what they are showing today. This is being conservative with a more East track.

My track record sucks this year so we'll see.

[Cambium]

Here we go. I'm shocked they put this out now. They usually wait 12 hours before and start low. They used possible "significant" in their text.



CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FRI NIGHT-SAT ESPECIALLY FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND. LATEST NAM NOW HAS A STRONGER SFC LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 18Z SAT... PRESUMABLY DUE TO A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT TO THE WEST THAT ALLOWS CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CLOSER TO A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IF THIS TREND APPEARS IN OTHER GUIDANCE AND/OR HOLDS WITH LATER RUNS...WE COULD EVEN BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT.

[Cambium]

NWS Boston

[Mixum]

so nothing in hartford? confused