[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Just a few hour drive North and people are using the snowblower making trails still since the last storm.. Other than that theres really no snowpack in the U.S aside from the Mountains out west. Wow.

Other than the Great Lakes (which is a big surprise.....I mean who'd have thought Buffalo would be the one part of the Northeast with no "sticking" snow yet.....), it isn't that unusual, it's still November......

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Other than the Great Lakes (which is a big surprise.....I mean who'd have thought Buffalo would be the one part of the Northeast with no "sticking" snow yet.....), it isn't that unusual, it's still November......

A. Youre right about it still being November.
B. Im getting tired of hearing meterologists saying theres no cold this year because there's no snow cover!
C. Buffalo sometimes has snow cover end of November. Depends on the year.
D. These maps dont do justice because it only shows you on this specific date I chose of November 27th. Doesnt give you what has happened before hand. Snow could have all melted on the 26th and not show up here.

But here are the last 6 years worth of data... Looks like we had more last year BUT we have more this year then 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006 at this time. Go figure. The yellow is the ice...Looks like Hudson bay had a lot more Ice in 2007.

[Cambium]

December 7, 2011 Storm Update

Still working out the details.. one minute its a clipper with light snows, next minute its a coastal(which is obviously stronger).. Still long range but an eye needs to stay open with this one.. interior could stay cold enough for all snow. Precip is light so far (3-5")

There could be an Arctic outbreak around the 11th. Single Digits for great Lakes and low 20s for interior CT.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Other than the Great Lakes (which is a big surprise.....I mean who'd have thought Buffalo would be the one part of the Northeast with no "sticking" snow yet.....), it isn't that unusual, it's still November......

I think your might be right…

Here in the Tri-State area ….snow cover/snow is rather unusual until late December on average. Even then - it seems once you get much south of Northern NY/Massachusetts…temps need to be a colder than normal to have any lasting snow cover. As anyone one knows who lives in this area, there always seems to be a struggle to have a White Christmas on the East Coast south of Massacheuutes/Upstate NY. Although the numbers vary – I think it’s like 1 out of 4 times will we see a White Christmas in the more southerly parts of the Tri-State area (along the I-95 corridor).

Looking ahead right now…I don’t see anything even close to below normal temps for the next month. November will end in 2 days with temps way above normal and zero snowfall at all area NWS stations. We’ll see temps today climb toward 65 F ! Even a week from now, while we might not see mid 60’s....temps will still be in the 50’s with a dry pattern. So this December seems like it will pick up right where our warm and dry November left off.

[htfdcolt]

Speaking of such...Geoff Fox recently said there is historically a "3 in 5" chance of Hartford having a white Christmas. Haven't looked up the stats, but having lived in other snowy areas (e.g. east of Cleveland) this struck me as an awfully high probability for us?

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Speaking of such...Geoff Fox recently said there is historically a "3 in 5" chance of Hartford having a white Christmas. Haven't looked up the stats, but having lived in other snowy areas (e.g. east of Cleveland) this struck me as an awfully high probability for us?

...that sounds about right. Northern CT is like 40% chance I think. I have this NOAA map from the 1990's. Don't know if the long term numbers have gone up/down since then:



.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Looking ahead right now…I don’t see anything even close to below normal temps for the next month.

Holy smokes! I'd love to know where you get your info from or how you come about these conclusions!

The entire month? Nothing close?

Arctic outbreak should push easterward end of next week... Normals are upper 40s..here's the forecast for afternoon of the 7th. highs will only be in the 30s even at the coast.. and 20s in northern CT.

A post like that needs AT LEAST some backup reasoning or source that lets you come to that conclusion, otherwise it is SIMPLY pure wishcasting.

"I dont see" is a FAR CRY from "I dont think"

Provide a source.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think your might be right…

Here in the Tri-State area ….snow cover/snow is rather unusual until late December on average. Even then - it seems once you get much south of Northern NY/Massachusetts…temps need to be a colder than normal to have any lasting snow cover. As anyone one knows who lives in this area, there always seems to be a struggle to have a White Christmas on the East Coast south of Massacheuutes/Upstate NY. Although the numbers vary – I think it’s like 1 out of 4 times will we see a White Christmas in the more southerly parts of the Tri-State area (along the I-95 corridor).

Looking ahead right now…I don’t see anything even close to below normal temps for the next month. November will end in 2 days with temps way above normal and zero snowfall at all area NWS stations. We’ll see temps today climb toward 65 F ! Even a week from now, while we might not see mid 60’s....temps will still be in the 50’s with a dry pattern. So this December seems like it will pick up right where our warm and dry November left off.

Except for the last part (where I think Cambium has some better info) I agree.

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Speaking of such...Geoff Fox recently said there is historically a "3 in 5" chance of Hartford having a white Christmas. Haven't looked up the stats, but having lived in other snowy areas (e.g. east of Cleveland) this struck me as an awfully high probability for us?

He may be talking about Windsor Locks up to Springfield, though 2 in 5 or even 1 in 2 may not be so unusual for Hartford and a little south. Once you get even a little away from the coast there's snow cover for a good part more of the winter. It is about 1 in 4 for NYC itself and the CT coast (maybe even closer to 1 in 5 for NYC down to the Jersey shore), but from say Albany to Buffalo and in most of VT and all but southeast NH it's more like 2 in 3 or even 3 in 4 (now go up to the Caribou/Presque Isle area of northern ME and it's almost every Christmas!)

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

...that sounds about right. Northern CT is like 40% chance I think. I have this NOAA map from the 1990's. Don't know if the long term numbers have gone up/down since then:



.

Here is something to chew on....

Central Park had more snow in the 2000's decade than the 70s', 80's and 90's COMBINED!!!! That is an amazing stat...snow definitely has a strong grip on the northeast corridor in the recent past. ... It may or may not be a white Christmas this year, but the trend toward more snow is obvious in the recent pattern. Not a good trend for warm weather lovers...oh well.

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Wow! That's amazing! Those are the hard cold...snowy facts! Us snow lovers are getting so spoiled, but I think I can get used to it.

Originally Posted by jp03

Here is something to chew on....

Central Park had more snow in the 2000's decade than the 70s', 80's and 90's COMBINED!!!! That is an amazing stat...snow definitely has a strong grip on the northeast corridor in the recent past. ... It may or may not be a white Christmas this year, but the trend toward more snow is obvious in the recent pattern. Not a good trend for warm weather lovers...oh well.