[Mixum]

Been without power since last Sat. Cambium... nice job on the storm. Should have taken it more seriously. Buying a generator next week. Having no power for a week humbles you.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

Been without power since last Sat. Cambium... nice job on the storm. Should have taken it more seriously. Buying a generator next week. Having no power for a week humbles you.

Thanks Mixum, really appreciate that and Im sorry to hear that. At least mother nature cooperated with us and gave us dry beautiful weather afterwards.

I'm actualy looking to get solar now after seeing the air alert from generators being used I see how harmfull they are to the enviroment and "our" health. I can always take the solar panels with me if I move and I can use them even when I do have power. :-)

Hang in there.... makes you appreciate how they lived just 150 years ago huh. or makes you think how crazy it must have been. lol

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Interesting read.

"Record snowfall in the spring, record snowfall in the autumn, skiing on the 4th of July, and glaciers growing in the Rockies.

This is how ice ages begin. Not by huge glaciers slowly grinding out of the north, not by temperatures plunging to Siberian levels, but by more and more snow."

This is how ice ages begin

"According to Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, three of the four snowiest winters in the Northern Hemisphere have occurred in the last four years."

http://iceagenow.info/wp-content/upl...st_winters.jpg

[wavehunter007]

Here is the latest ECMWF long range model outlook through early December. The model shows no sustained cold across North America into early December...just as I predected:


AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Long Range Model Forecast Update into early December (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/57369/long-range-model-forecast-update-into-early-december.asp - broken link)

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

It shows seasonable temps for the northeast.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Here is the latest ECMWF long range model outlook through early December. The model shows no sustained cold across North America into early December...just as I predected:


AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Long Range Model Forecast Update into early December (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/57369/long-range-model-forecast-update-into-early-december.asp - broken link)

[wavehunter007]

Exactly:

Yet, AccuWeather in their October winter forecast on 10/1/2011…. PREDICTED that early winter would be colder and snowier than normal across much of the USA. However, beyond the marketing angle…this was untrue, and not based on any real scientific reason. I tend to think AccuWeather knew this…but they need market share to sell to their advertisers.

Like I predicted...as long as NW Canada stays warmer than normal (like they are now and have been since late summer)…it will be very hard to get cold air down into the United States. There may be some cold air in the Rockies, that trough will give wet and cool weather to California in the coming weeks, and there will be some Lake Effect snows in the coming weeks…but in the main deep sustained cold in the central and eastern USA is nowhere in sight.

Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind

It shows seasonable temps for the northeast.

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Do you consider the last week of November and the first days of December early winter? I've heard some say its going to be a cold and snowy first half of winter and others say that it will be a 2nd half winter. I thought I read somewhere that the NAO is going to tank later this month. We actually did have an early taste of winter in October here and in Denver. Let's see how it plays out since long range forecasts are always subject to change as they were last year.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Exactly:

Yet, AccuWeather in their October winter forecast on 10/1/2011…. PREDICTED that early winter would be colder and snowier than normal across much of the USA. However, beyond the marketing angle…this was untrue, and not based on any real scientific reason. I tend to think AccuWeather knew this…but they need market share to sell to their advertisers.

Like I predicted...as long as NW Canada stays warmer than normal (like they are now and have been since late summer)…it will be very hard to get cold air down into the United States. There may be some cold air in the Rockies, that trough will give wet and cool weather to California in the coming weeks, and there will be some Lake Effect snows in the coming weeks…but in the main deep sustained cold in the central and eastern USA is nowhere in sight.

[wavehunter007]

The pattern than takes hold in late October and early/mid November often is the pattern the coming winter will have. Several NWS stations have done a few studies that show that about 75% of the coldest winters had a colder than normal October and November. The snow that occurred on the 30th was really a blip in a very warm October. This October was warmer than normal at most NWS stations in the Tri-State area (including NWS Bridgeport where it was more than 2 F above normal). There is ZERO real evidence that the NAO will go into negative range in the near future. Even if it does, that might me colder temps, but not always snow. Unlike the Tri-State area - snow in fall in Denver is not unsual.

As we head into the middle of November, we should have seen many nights with temps in the lower teens in the upper Midwest already…instead temps have struggled to get into the upper 20’s so far up there, and the pattern looks like it will not change anytime soon.

Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind

Do you consider the last week of November and the first days of December early winter? I've heard some say its going to be a cold and snowy first half of winter and others say that it will be a 2nd half winter. I thought I read somewhere that the NAO is going to tank later this month. We actually did have an early taste of winter in October here and in Denver. Let's see how it plays out since long range forecasts are always subject to change as they were last year.

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Were October and November of 2010 and 2009 colder or warmer than normal? We dont need to have the coldest winter pattern to have snow. It just has to be cold enough to support snow and sometimes its better if its not too cold since this type of pattern usually suppresses storms. What is the outlook for the NAO for the months of December - February?

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

The pattern than takes hold in late October and early/mid November often is the pattern the coming winter will have. Several NWS stations have done a few studies that show that about 75% of the coldest winters had a colder than normal October and November. The snow that occurred on the 30th was really a blip in a very warm October. This October was warmer than normal at most NWS stations in the Tri-State area (including NWS Bridgeport where it was more than 2 F above normal). There is ZERO real evidence that the NAO will go into negative range in the near future. Even if it does, that might me colder temps, but not always snow. Unlike the Tri-State area - snow in fall in Denver is not unsual.

As we head into the middle of November, we should have seen many nights with temps in the lower teens in the upper Midwest already…instead temps have struggled to get into the upper 20’s so far up there, and the pattern looks like it will not change anytime soon.

[7 Wishes]

This is starting to sound like that funky commercial for the Weather Channel a few years ago where two guys are in a sports bar, one with his face made up to look like a cold front, and the other with his face bright read and they are rooting for warmer vs. colder weather.......(it ends with "warmer! Yeah, who looks stupid now").......