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Old 07-29-2011, 08:55 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
NOTE: Old Farmers Almanac (though I don't buy into them much, they didn't predict the "heat wave" last weekend right, though it seems to have this weekend on target except for the Cape Cod/Maine trop storm landfall) actually is predicting a possible Mid-Atlantic hurricane landfall on Sept 1-3 (preceded by "late" 100 deg weather......the 1940s and 50s had a lot of late August/early Sept heat waves). Still a tropical storm for New England?

Northeast U.S. Long Range Weather Forecast | Farmers' Almanac

By the way, I think that map only goes up to the early-1990s or something. Where is Bertha? (1996, center went right over NYC and southwest CT as a moderate-strong Tropical Storm). Or Charlie? (landfall on western LI in 2004 as a low end trop storm)
And certainly Floyd in 1999?

Also, I think they're listing the state of FIRST landfall (which may be why the storms I mention aren't up there, because they landfalled previously in another part of the US?). Most of CT is blocked by LI in terms of a hurricane/trop storm coming from the sea so of course the "first" landfall would be in NY. Gloria's a good example, though it was still a hurricane when it hit CT. The only way a storm could have "first" landfall in CT is to track east of LI and then somehow turn west into the Sound.


By the way, look up Hurricane Juan in 2003. It never was near any land until hitting NOVA SCOTIA, CANADA as a Cat 2 hurricane.
Farmers Almanac is like Nostradamus..predict enough things and a few of em are bound to be right,...a bunch of hhhooooeyy...I say....
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Old 07-29-2011, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Tornado warnings all over PA and western NY already..cells popping up everywhere and look intense . Heads up tonight!
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Old 07-29-2011, 03:27 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Getting closer guys...not liking this... So many cells heading troward us. Be safe

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
* AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MONROE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HARRIMAN...WEST POINT...POMONA...PEEKSKILL...NEW CITY AND
HAVERSTRAW
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Old 07-29-2011, 06:53 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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According to Channel 7, that tornado went through a good swath of central Westchester County. Looking at the radar when I was watching it, it looked like the storm moved from there to Greenwich and went out into the Sound into LI, though they're not saying it was a tornado in Greenwich. Don't know if any other parts of CT got anything.
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Old 07-29-2011, 09:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
According to Channel 7, that tornado went through a good swath of central Westchester County. Looking at the radar when I was watching it, it looked like the storm moved from there to Greenwich and went out into the Sound into LI, though they're not saying it was a tornado in Greenwich. Don't know if any other parts of CT got anything.
Talk about luck! Wow.. radar was scary as it was moving from Orange then Rockland then Westchester county. It weakened in White plains and then took a turn south towards Port Chester. Otherwise New Canaan, Norwalk was in line. But it would have just been strong storms anyway.

Goshen and Peekskill got it worst. I heard reports of many trees down in White Plains, on Saw Mill and Tarrytown...and Ossining.

Mid and upper layer winds were strong as forecasted.

Here's some pictures that were sent to me...

Port Chester


Scarsdale:
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Old 07-30-2011, 07:03 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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I know this doesn't make those who had real severe weather feel any better, but Philly was 96 yesterday and Baltimore and DC were 104 with lows in the 80s.

There is talk of more storms Monday and Wednesday afternoons so stay tuned!
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Old 07-30-2011, 07:03 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,366,619 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
By the way, I think that map only goes up to the early-1990s or something. Where is Bertha? (1996, center went right over NYC and southwest CT as a moderate-strong Tropical Storm). Or Charlie? (landfall on western LI in 2004 as a low end trop storm)
And certainly Floyd in 1999?

Also, I think they're listing the state of FIRST landfall (which may be why the storms I mention aren't up there, because they landfalled previously in another part of the US?). Most of CT is blocked by LI in terms of a hurricane/trop storm coming from the sea so of course the "first" landfall would be in NY. Gloria's a good example, though it was still a hurricane when it hit CT. The only way a storm could have "first" landfall in CT is to track east of LI and then somehow turn west into the Sound.



Well it looks like your hunch will end up correct. As of today…NWS NYC stands at 80.1 F for the month of July, this is tied for the 6th warmest month at Central Park in 142 years of record keeping. NWS Bridgeport stands at 77.5 F …within the top 5 hottest months of all time at Bridgeport. At this point, even if we have 90’s today, Sun, and Mon, I think NWS Central Park will not make it into the top 3 now. The only months that July 2011 can catch now are 1993 (80.1 F), 1952 (80.3 F ), and August 1980 (80.3). IF July 2011 can end at 80.3 F …it will be tied for 4th place in the all time hottest months in NYC.


As far as hurricane landfalls in the Tri-State area - your right, any hurricane must hit the United States first in NY (long Island) before it can strike Connecticut. What worries me is that recent hurricane weakened between Delaware Bay and Long Island. Gloria (1985), Belle (1976 ), and Donna (1960), all had less than 95 mph sustained winds when they crossed Long Island. So peak wind gusts, storm surge flooding (Belle and Donna arrived at the peak of low tide), and rainfall not too severe in Connecticut. However, Carol (1954) and the 1938 Hurricane, did not weaken between Delaware Bay and landfall on Long Island - so hurricane force winds and storm surges were severe in Connecticut and Long Island. Many people seem to forget that, and newcomers to the Connecticut coast don't really get that they are in a hurricane zone when they are on Long island or coastal Connecticut/Rhode Island.

Worse, people think that tidal wave/storm surges are minimal on the coast of Connecticut because Long Island is there. Long Island only slows down storm surges/tidal surges, it doesn’t stop them. In 1954, 1938, and 1869 (the last storm there is creditable evidence on) produced a sea level rise of 10 to 12 feet above msl along the Connecticut coast (and up to 17 feet above msl on Long Island); In the cyclones of 1954, 1938, and 1869, buildings were swept off their foundations and out to sea, or piled in a mass of wreckage miles inland on the coastal plain in southeast Connecticut:

US 156 out of Old Lyme in 1938:



Mystic after the 1938 storm surge (ocean is on right side). Debris were carried inland more than 2 miles:


East Lyme after the 1938 Hurricane:




1938 (and 1869 of course) is a long time ago, so there few people alive today who remember the 1938 cyclone. However, down here along the southeastern CT coast there’s still a lot of old timers who remember Carol in 1954 and all the destruction. They all say same the same thing…that Carol was the greatest storm they ever saw:

HURRICANE CAROL


.
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Old 07-30-2011, 07:14 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Well it looks like your hunch will end up correct. As of today…NWS NYC stands at 80.1 F for the month of July, this is tied for the 6th warmest month at Central Park in 142 years of record keeping. NWS Bridgeport stands at 77.5 F …within the top 5 hottest months of all time at Bridgeport. At this point, even if we have 90’s today, Sun, and Mon, I think NWS Central Park will not make it into the top 3 now. The only months that July 2011 can catch now are 1993 (80.1 F), 1952 (80.3 F ), and August 1980 (80.3). IF July 2011 can end at 80.3 F …it will be tied for 4th place in the all time hottest months in NYC..
Going to be tricky. CPK currently at 80.1. Official forecast says 91/70 today and 88/70 tomorrow. That's an average of 79.75 for the 2 days combined, which would probably drop it to 80.0. I think this will still be one of the few months ever with an avg. temp of 80 or higher.

However, I've noticed that on days that are fairly hot but with low humidity, the NWS tends to get the high temps a little low (for example, they predicted 85 for Central Park last Tuesday and it ended up being 90). So if those 2 highs end up say 92 or 93 instead and/or the lows end up being a couple of degrees higher (like 72 or 73), it could end as high as 80.3 I think.

As I noted in the last post, we were a lot closer to 100 degree heat yesterday than one thinks, and if it happened, you probably would've been right about this month ending up #3.

BTW nice pictures of the 1938 hurricane. I also want to note Agnes in 1972. While technically a tropical storm locally, it was just a few MPH below a Cat 1 hurricane and the center went right over NYC and southwest FFC and while not to the degree of 1938 or Carol, still had damage in the Northeast that made national news (I don't remember it as I was only 4 1/2 at the time, but I read a lot, my wife who is 2 1/2 years older than I claims she does though).
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Old 07-30-2011, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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Default EF1 Tornado confirmed in Goshen,NY

This was the cell heading right for lower fairfield county. Luckily it weakened beforehand.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
338 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMS A TORNADO IN GOSHEN NY...

EVENT: TORNADO
INTENSITY: EF-1
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 2.1 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
TIME: 459 PM
DATE: FRIDAY JULY 29TH
LOCATION: GOSHEN...NY

DESCRIPTION: BASED ON A DAMAGE SURVEY PERFORMED BY THE NWS...
RADAR SIGNATURES...AND EYEWITNESS REPORTS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO IN GOSHEN...NY ON FRIDAY JULY
29.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR 109 COLEMAN ROAD AND LIFTED NEAR
600 CRAIGVILLE ROAD. ALL ALONG THIS PATH...TREES CONVERGED INTO A
WELL DEFINED NARROW PATH. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE
OCCURRED ON HASBROUCK ROAD...WHERE 2 HOUSES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
STREET FROM ONE ANOTHER (AT 101 AND 110 HASBROUCK) WERE IMPACTED.
AT 101 HASBROUCK ROAD...ROOF SHINGLES WERE TORN OFF...SKYLIGHT
WINDOWS WERE BLOWN IN WITH GLASS THAT SHATTERED...AND DEBRIS WAS
EMBEDDED ALL ALONG THE SIDES OF THE HOUSE INCLUDING A SMALL BRANCH
THAT WENT RIGHT THROUGH A GUTTER. AT 110 HASBROUCK ROAD...TREES
WERE DRAPED ALL OVER THE HOUSE WITH MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

National Weather Service Text Product Display
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Old 07-30-2011, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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Default Microburst in Westchester, NY and Hampden, MA

Couple more confirmed reports came in. Wind speed extimate to be 80mph from microburst in Ossining.

...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED NEAR
WILBRAHAM IN HAMPDEN COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...

LOCATION...WILBRAHAM IN HAMPDEN COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS
DATE...07/26/2011
ESTIMATED TIME...448 PM EDT
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH MAXIMUM
PATH WIDTH...600 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2 MILES
_____________________________________

...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED IN OSSINING IN
WESTCHESTER COUNTY NY...

LOCATION...OSSINING IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY NY
DATE...JULY 29 2011
ESTIMATED TIME...604 PM TO 608 PM EDT
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...0.4 MILES
PATH LENGTH...1.4 MILES


National Weather Service Text Product Display
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