[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

::Posted August 4th:: RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN.......< That's a lot of rain.

Sunday.
This is a 24hr total. The X is the 3.85" total. System moves from the West to East.

Won't be 3"+ or flooding but there's a lot of rain in store. Atmosphere loaded. Should be like this till Tuesday (off and on) then again Thursday.

I heard some storms for Tuesday but I havent checked lately..

[7 Wishes]

Depending on how sunny vs. stormy it is, we might sneak a 90+ degree day in tomorrow.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Depending on how sunny vs. stormy it is, we might sneak a 90+ degree day in tomorrow.

Looks like Central Park only hit 89 F on Sunday. So far NWS Central Park has hit 90 F or higher 19 times, and August and Sept can often have many 90 days. I think Central Park could see 30 days of 90 F or higher when the hot season ends in September.

Also, don’t know if you saw this…looks like July 2011 sneaked in as the 5th hottest of all time. More shocking is that NWS Bridgeport had its 3rd hottest month of all time.

NOUS41 KOKX 052022 CCA
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-060224-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS AVERAGE JULY 2011 TEMPERATURES AND
CORRESPONDING RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. CENTRAL PARK NY
RECORDED AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 80.2 DEGREES FOR JULY
2011 WHICH IS THE 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD. NEWARK NJ RECORDED THE WARMEST AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WITH 82.7 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD JULY MONTHLY AVERAGE RECORD OF 82.5 DEGREES SET IN 1993. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

*****AVERAGE JULY 2011 TEMPERATURE READINGS AND RECORDS*****

LOCATION AVERAGE RANK RECORD YEAR
TEMPERATURE

CENTRAL PARK NY 80.2 5TH 81.4 1999
NYC/LA GUARDIA AIRPORT 80.4 7TH(TIE) 82.8 2010
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 79.8 2ND 80.7 2010
NEWARK AIRPORT 82.7 1ST 82.5 1993
ISLIP AIRPORT 77.6 3RD 78.6 1999
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 77.6 3RD 1994

When you think that 77 to 81 F is the "normal" June through Sept monthly mean temps in the subtropics and even tropics - you appreciate the modern advances in things like A/C and climate controled cars (lol).

How did they get through working the docks of the old subtropical port cities like New Orleans, Charleston, St. Augustine, Brisbane, ...etc back in the 1800's in summer (lol).


.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Looks like Central Park only hit 89 F on Sunday. So far NWS Central Park has hit 90 F or higher 19 times, and August and Sept can often have many 90 days. I think Central Park could see 30 days of 90 F or higher when the hot season ends in September.

Yeah, only Newark hit over 90 locally yesterday (they topped at at 94! I originally put that in as another skeptical example in my "why is Newark so hot" thread on the Weather forum but I then noticed everyone south of them like Philly and Atlantic City were 90-95 so it didn't seem as impossible). Bridgeport had a high of 88 though which means the winds had to mostly be from the west and not off the water.

Today they thought was a better chance of a 90-degree day, but it looks like Central Park already topped out at 87 (though sometimes it warms back up later in the afternoon). While 11 more 90+ days to get 30 is not impossible (last year August had 12 90-degree days on top of July's 16), I don't think it's likely unless we have a very warm Sept. or change in the forecast. The 10-day forecast doesn't see ANY 90+ days in Central Park (though some of the days forecast mid-upper 80s so I think we'll see at least one 90-degree day the next 2 weeks, I'm sure we'll at least crack 20 for the season and I give it a 50-50 shot at 25). As for Sept., according the NWS site, NYC averages 1 90+ Sept. day, there were 3 last year which was the most since 1983, when there were 7 (the record is 8 in 1961).

[7 Wishes]

As I suspected, it did warm back up in the afternoon and all of the Tri-State Area (including Central Park and Bridgeport) got to 90. Probably the last one for awhile (though I doubt the last one of the whole summer).

[Cambium]

Gonna welcome this with open arms. Falls temps in the models...

40s and 50s filtering down to Vermont, MA, CT, NY, PA and WV. Just for morning of August 12th. Won't last long though.

These are Minimum Temps

[Cambium]

Heres a closeup... It could even get to upper 40s in parts of Litchfield and Hartford counties. Latest run isnt as cool but either way these temps would happen at 6am but warm up quickly.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Yeah, only Newark hit over 90 locally yesterday (they topped at at 94! I originally put that in as another skeptical example in my "why is Newark so hot" thread on the Weather forum but I then noticed everyone south of them like Philly and Atlantic City were 90-95 so it didn't seem as impossible). Bridgeport had a high of 88 though which means the winds had to mostly be from the west and not off the water.

Today they thought was a better chance of a 90-degree day, but it looks like Central Park already topped out at 87 (though sometimes it warms back up later in the afternoon). While 11 more 90+ days to get 30 is not impossible (last year August had 12 90-degree days on top of July's 16), I don't think it's likely unless we have a very warm Sept. or change in the forecast. The 10-day forecast doesn't see ANY 90+ days in Central Park (though some of the days forecast mid-upper 80s so I think we'll see at least one 90-degree day the next 2 weeks, I'm sure we'll at least crack 20 for the season and I give it a 50-50 shot at 25). As for Sept., according the NWS site, NYC averages 1 90+ Sept. day, there were 3 last year which was the most since 1983, when there were 7 (the record is 8 in 1961).

Yes, I did see that.

Not really surprised however, the whole eastern seaboard has really had a hot summer – only from Boston northward has the monthly mean temps been close to normal. I always notice that when Atlantic City has a lot of 90’s (meaning the flow is more southwest, than off the ocean) NWS Bridgeport has a warm month.

Another issue that seems to be just starting to get some attention is the drought; I think it will have some impact on the temps in the short term across the whole eastern USA. When there is persistent drought in the interior south/southern plains (although our local area has had little rain in July and August as well), high pressure seems to anchor south of us. Since there is so little moisture to evaporate ... all the sun’s energy goes into heating the ground (and dir air heats faster than moist air as you know). The end result is normally a late summer/early fall pattern of high pressure, a lack of rainfall, and mean temps above normal. I think September and October will have monthly mean temps at least a bit above normal (0.5 F or so), but mean temps as much as 2 F above normal from the Tri-State area southward would not surprise me at all.

As far as how many more 90 F days who really knows? For some reason I see a lot of the 1950’s summers in the weather we have been having lately (in the 1990’s and 2000’s). Normally we always think of the deep heat as being in late June, July, and up to mid August. I always remember that to this day (since 1856) the longest number of consecutive 90 F days occurred from the last week of August into the first week of September:

Untitled Document


I guess we'll find out...

[Cambium]

Too close for comfort? Still long range...lets watch it...


&#x202a;GFS 12z Tropics 8-10-11&#x202c;&rlm; - YouTube

[Cambium]

Actually New model just hot off the press....... Big hit for us on this run... Even though its waaay long range...Its been consistantly showing it now which worries me.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwwMWw-YNo8