[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Not sure I completely understand still. I think I know what your asking. Real feel is just how the air feels using current conditions but Im sure you knew that so I bet your asking if they are basing the "feel" using 0% humidity or 50%.

Because 85 to me might feel different to you. I think its a general idea that 100 degree temp at 70% humidity will feel like its 105 without the high humidty. Maybe they use 50%?

Just found this.. get technical but looks like 50% is the right idea . Heat index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Did you know Accu weather patented the "Real Feel" temp? How We Calculate Real Feel Temperatures - Weather Glossary - AccuWeather.com

"We recognize that it feels much hotter with no wind and a searing summer midday sun than it does with a 20 mile per hour gusty breeze and thick clouds. Only AccuWeather's exclusive RealFeel Temperature reflects this difference

And, as The RealFeel Temperature is protected by two patents ..."

Yeah, that's what I was looking for, thanks. Interesting about AccuWeather's "Real Feel" always wondered why the number is often different from the Heat Index.

Originally Posted by Cambium

So What happened??? I come back to see everything disapprearing now? It hasnt rained here since the 27th. I thought that batch heading for NYC was coming here for sure. Now look at it. Almost all disappearing.

meanwhile NW CT getting some flooding reports and really heavy downpours.

And NYC itself didn't get much from it either, I think either just a T or 0.01", meaning it's likely they will stay at the #2 June all time.....

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

That is interesting and very believeable actually. Deep down inside I kinda felt like this was "normal", mostly because it's something I've been complaining about almost every summer since the 80s. I remember less summers of weather enjoyment and more complaints from me because of the moist muggy air. So that itself should of told me this is pretty normal for us here. Even just recent memorys there's rarely times dewpoints stay in the 50s around here in the summer for days on end.

However, curious about the setup itself. Having normal tropical feel doesnt mean the setups are all the same each summer and that there's no end in sight to the chances of rain/clouds. Question is, when was the last time we had this stuck pattern in the summer?

Or maybe an easier question is: Is this normal tropical feel "because" of this Bermuda High Ohio Trough setup?

Yes, I thought it was quite interesting as well.

I also think that over the last 20 – 30 years summers seem to have become more humid, but not necessarily hotter. Yet, talk to any older generation and they will give you the same line (which may or may not be true) that summers in “the old days” were even more humid. So who knows? I think the article has a point in that a southerly flow is our direction for high humidity/dew points and weak tropical lows that bring heavy rains. Think about, many times tropical storms strike areas to our south (FL to NC) then the weak/dying low pass up through the Mid Atlantic/Tri- State area. These tropical systems can only reach us when there is a decent southerly flow.

As to this Bermuda High/ Ohio Trough setup and the East Coast summer monsoon that shows itself once in a while – maybe this is a true monsoon setup? Monsoons are interesting and complicated: From the little I understand of the East Asian monsoon, not only does the subtropical high contribute to the southerly flow from the tropical Pacific, but the "thermal low" in the center of Asia that also helps to draw air from the sea to the land. While it’s true that some of the very heavy rains in the East Asian monsoon are created orographically - it is the strong inward flow of air from the sea to the land created by the combined high and the thermal low that drives the Southwest Monsoon in East Asia.

That sounds awful familiar right now if you look at the set up – we have the Bermuda High (subtropical high) creating a southerly flow up the East Coast, while a low/trough is in the center of the mainland also is helping to keep our flow onshore (SSW) rather than offshore (NNW). Of course in our case right now the trough is not a heat low. I think the position of the Bermuda High was also the same during the summer of 2004 the article mentions. In East Asia the typical monsoon flow is onshore (S/SW) in the hot season and offshore (NNW) in the cold season. That too sounds like the prevailing seasonal winds around here as well….cold winds come from the NNW in winter.....and warm/humid and wet winds come from the SSW in summer. So who knows. I think the author was trying to convey that there is more of a semblance of a monsoon on the East Coast, and even then, it’s only periodic.

In any case, I could use more sun, so I hope either the trough moves west or the Bermuda High builds west. We’ll see what happens this week.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Upton:
"It seems that the best focus is along the stationary front that is over eastern PA and upstate NY. There is also some greater lift offshore so Long Island and southern Connecticut are caught in between where there may be some subsidence (or downward motion). The marine layer also may be playing a role. The coastal environment is very challenging!"

Coastal weather is very challenging indeed

Looks like we weren't the only coastal area dealing with the Marine Layer today. Ever wonder how it is on the West coast. Pretty cool stuff!!

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Looks like we weren't the only coastal area dealing with the Marine Layer today. Ever wonder how it is on the West coast. Pretty cool stuff!!

Indeed. I'm headed out there on vacation soon and will get to experience it. Because the ocean temps are closer to 60 F, the marine layer feels very refreshing or downright chilly...especially up near the SFO & Monterey areas.

[Brian26]

The weather was very strange along the shoreline today. Was almost like we were in the clouds. There was soo much moisture in the air that I had to use the wipers despite nothing showing on the radar. Almost felt like the pacific northwest out there today.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Indeed. I'm headed out there on vacation soon and will get to experience it. Because the ocean temps are closer to 60 F, the marine layer feels very refreshing or downright chilly...especially up near the SFO & Monterey areas.

Even in L.A. when you're RIGHT on the ocean it can be pretty cool out. I remember the first time I ever was at LAX, and it was in June (read up on "June gloom" there) and I was shocked how foggy, cool and almost "San Francisco-like" it was. Then more shocked how when my aunt and uncle drove us the 20 or so miles to their home in the San Fernando Valley, and how it was sunny and a very dry 90-deg out.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Yes, I thought it was quite interesting as well.

I also think that over the last 20 – 30 years summers seem to have become more humid, but not necessarily hotter. Yet, talk to any older generation and they will give you the same line (which may or may not be true) that summers in “the old days” were even more humid. So who knows? I think the article has a point in that a southerly flow is our direction for high humidity/dew points and weak tropical lows that bring heavy rains. Think about, many times tropical storms strike areas to our south (FL to NC) then the weak/dying low pass up through the Mid Atlantic/Tri- State area. These tropical systems can only reach us when there is a decent southerly flow.

I think (and the moving "30 year average" for most Northeast stations, especially near the coast and in "Megalopolis" supports this) that the high temperatures for summertime have stayed steady if not gone a tiny bit down, but the nighttime lows have definitely climbed. In that sense I think we have higher humidity now (records also show average summer precip is higher now too) since I think this is one way it would manifest itself. Now whether that's due to "global warming", a natural cycle change or a little of both is hard to say.

[Cambium]

Windsor Locks,CT(BDL) finished 2nd wettest June on record since 1904 with 10.79".
Bridgeport, CT(BDR) finished 3rd wettest June on record since 1948 with 9.48"

Plume of moisture still riding along. No dry air near us. Still near Bermuda and Tennessee.

[Cambium]

Marine layer can only win so many battles. LOL

Thudnerstorm warning for Westchester County but more importantly reports of flooding and raining like no tomorrow.

You ever see a line like that that forced Flash Flood Warnings up along it? It is torrential raining under most cells out there. Atmosphere is loaded!

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I think (and the moving "30 year average" for most Northeast stations, especially near the coast and in "Megalopolis" supports this) that the high temperatures for summertime have stayed steady if not gone a tiny bit down, but the nighttime lows have definitely climbed. In that sense I think we have higher humidity now (records also show average summer precip is higher now too) since I think this is one way it would manifest itself. Now whether that's due to "global warming", a natural cycle change or a little of both is hard to say.

If that is the case (the warmer nights/higher humidity/more summer rainfall), then perhaps our climate is becoming more monsoonal - meaning our seasonal precip pattern is becoming more like other areas located in the same geographic position (i.e East Asia).

If summers become wetter perhaps winter will become drier. I wouldn't be a bad climate change for us, since the summer rains benefit crops while the winter rains/snow does not.

[Cambium]

Stay off roads in Fairfield County that will flood easily for the next hour or so.

1031 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

* AT 1030 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.