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Looks like St Louis will be all snow but some places will be rain changing to snow. Starts this morning but becomes heavy this evening. Tonights Commute will be rough in Missouri.
The meteorologists are freaking out a little with the inconsistency in the models. We're going with 3-6" west-to-east in Kansas City, 6-10" in the Truman lakes area, and 10-15" from Columbia to St. Louis. Travel will be largely impossible in mid-Missouri, I expect.
Just started in St Louis and conditions will deteriorate now.
Quote:
Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019
Areas affected...East-central Missouri...far west-central Illinois
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 112000Z - 120200Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected over the next several hours, with
up to 1 in/hr rates likely in some spots, especially along the I-70
corridor, including the St. Louis metropolitan area.
DISCUSSION...As a mid-level trough continues to progress across the
Central Plains during the afternoon, the northward advection of a
deep, moist airmass will continue across the region along with
increasing large-scale ascent. Recent Mesoanalysis has indicated
700-500 mb frontogenesis is underway across the area, where an
800-1000 m deep, near-saturated to saturated dendritic layer is
present, fostering the potential for efficient snowfall production.
Latest KEAX and KLSX dual-polarimetric data suggest a transition to
all snow north of a west-east oriented line approximately through
Cass County to Jefferson County in Missouri.
While several locations are above freezing at the surface, 10+F T/Td
spreads and a sub-saturated sfc-850 mb layer suggest that
evaporative cooling with the onset of the initial precipitation will
cool and saturate the lower-level troposphere to foster occasionally
heavy snow, with up to 1 in/hr rates possible in some areas. Latest
high resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the
greatest threat for heavy snow will remain confined in a narrow
corridor across portions of central/eastern Missouri through the
evening hours.
Snow is falling at a moderate rate in Platte County, MO, northwest of Kansas City. It is sticking to roofs, cars, railings, and similar things, as well as some but not all paved surfaces. It has been falling since around 1:05 (central time) and accumulating since around 2. The temperature is 33F.
Snow is falling at a moderate rate in Platte County, MO, northwest of Kansas City. It is sticking to roofs, cars, railings, and similar things, as well as some but not all paved surfaces. It has been falling since around 1:05 (central time) and accumulating since around 2. The temperature is 33F.
How much accumulation in cm would you predict there will be at the end of this?
How much accumulation in cm would you predict there will be at the end of this?
No idea. It could be anywhere from 3 to 20+. The best meteorologists we have here in KC are all saying different things, and none of them are all that sure of what they're saying either. I've looked at the models myself, and...you could run this weather scenario 10 times and get 10 different outcomes.
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