Winter Storm January 12-14, 2019 (snow storm, warm, temperature, precipitation)

[Cambium]

Where is the storm right now? 3000+ miles away in the open Pacific.

Impressive how models see these storms happening week into the future but without good data coming from over the oceans details and exacts arent known better until that energy comes on land. Maybe this thing will shift north more still!

https://twitter.com/NWSStLouis/statu...13354005856257

[Cambium]

Bernie is live. Hopefully link works when he's off.


https://www.pscp.tv/w/bwT-IzF4a1FEWU...rsA1iitAC45SMN

[Cambium]

Here, this should do it. "Its certainly going to snow in DC & Philly, question is how much" @7:25

At the end he mentions why he likes split flows. This is one time I hope the cold northern jet stream trough is weak and doesn't push south too much.

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status...31206800625665

[Saritra]

I'm going to say...somewhere in Missouri, south of the Missouri River.

Also, your zones are weird. Missouri has much more in common climatically with Kentucky and Virginia than with Tennessee and North Carolina.

[Solstodur]

Lots of uncertainty in 12z EURO and 18z GEFS, this one could go either way. Will wait until 0z before committing.

[Saritra]

Originally Posted by Saritra

I'm going to say...somewhere in Missouri, south of the Missouri River.

Also, your zones are weird. Missouri has much more in common climatically with Kentucky and Virginia than with Tennessee and North Carolina.

To elaborate on this...I'll put the center near Mark Twain National Forest.

[Adaminaby Angler]

I'd wager region II; the most maritime-influenced, hence the greatest exposure to Central Atlantic systems.

[Cambium]

New Euro.
Hartford nothing but very cold
NYC 1-2"
Philly 3-4"
Virginia 6"+
Missouri 10"+

https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status...87138780368896

[Cambium]

Latest models for the weekend storm with 850mb temps.

Pretty weak storm now. Missouri-Kentucky-Virginia seem to be in the line of snow consistent run to run.

GFS & Canadian the strongest out of these at 1005mb. But notice the track... suppressed.
New version GFS the fastest and furthest north. Americans just can't figure it out.
Euro the weakest but also pretty flat.


Note the cold air around too and the High Pressure in Quebec. Euro model is pretty cold for New England with -12C temps aloft. Too strong....Too Cold....No Blocking... This thing isn't coming up the coast. We'll see.

[Cambium]

Friday afternoon the snow starts spreading. Heaviest around St Louis. Could they be the jackpot zone??






Saturday night the snow starts spreading Eastward into Mid Atlantic





Sunday a new coastal storm takes over and we'll see how far north it comes with the snow. D.C in a good spot to get a few inches. Cold air is coming into place tomorrow so it's great timing for them.






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