January 15-18, 2016 Winter Storm (snowfall, warm, record, Chicago)
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Been showing a potential storm for couple days now. Posted in the Winter Thread here....and here.
Keep in mind... it's still 9 days away but the potential for a Jan 17-19 storm is there.. Details Details as we get closer. Could be a fish storm, could be a blizzard for some.
Here is todays Euro12z data for Danbury, CT. Showing a nice snowstorm for Monday 18th.
Temps in the 20s surface and aloft. Decent amount of precip too!
EuroEPS continues to show a blizzard NYC to Maine. This solution would be a memorable one if happens as this shows.
A Sub 960mb storm at Benchmark??? Once again ... we are still 8 days away, this wont be the exact solution but if was would be a MECS (Major East Coast Storm)
We are inside a pattern that supports these big storms. Just about Timing and Location now. Lets see if this storm ends up happening, weak or strong.
Meanwhile.... GFS ... Storm not even on the map. Does show snow in the area but does not phase the Jet Streams. What else is new with that model.
Euro closeup. NUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BTW ... that's intense wind swept rains for the MA cape until the cold air rushes in as the storm leaves.. Hurricane force wind gusts
New Snowstorm in Coming Week?
Winter Storm Hera is moving across parts of the Midwest this weekend, but more snow may be on tap for the region and for the Northeast in the coming week.
An expected change in the large-scale weather pattern over North America and the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean appear to be increasing the odds for a possible impactful winter storm in the East beginning late in the new week ahead or next weekend.
There is broad support in computer forecast model guidance for colder-than-average conditions across portions of the East at times over the next two weeks. That forecast is of relative high confidence.
There are also indications of an increase in storminess, though whether a Southern or East Coast snowstorm actually forms is of much lower confidence, which is a typical conundrum facing meteorologists this time of year.
The result could be snow returning to portions of the U.S. which have not seen much in the way of snowfall so far this season.
This pattern would then allow for more of what meteorologists call "atmospheric blocking." In the case of a negative NAO, the "block" often takes the form of a strong bubble of high pressure near Greenland. This "blocks" the typical west-to-east flow of the jet stream, forcing it to meander northward and southward instead. This results in disruptions of the normal eastward progression of weather disturbances.
Instead of cold air draining from west to east across Canada, the cold air would be forced deep into the Lower 48 States, sometimes locking in place for a period of a week or more.
With cold air in place, an active subtropical, or southern-branch, jet stream (enchanced by the current record-tying El Niño, by the way) in the southern U.S. could bring enough moisture and lift in the atmosphere to produce wintry precipitation there as long as the pattern is in place.
Then, if this southern jet stream's energy can couple with northern-branch jet stream energy, low pressure could intensify, wrapping Atlantic moisture into the cold air, resulting in an East Coast snowstorm.
For now, the details of where and when a potential snowstorm may develop in the East is very unclear. But the big picture of an active more winter-like pattern in the South and East looks likely.
where the energies are at, and are coming from.. so, to give myself some more perspective on how far away we are from anything solid on this.. I bring you the northern and southern stream energies.. where they are at today.
Southern stream, where is it?
North of Japan. Yep.. it still has to traverse the Pacific Ocean.. and we all know that's chalk full of great sampling.
Northern stream, where is it?
This is crazy .. but it's in MN right now.
It basically just rotates around/through the Hudson, then comes back to where it started.. oh, and hangs out for awhile, THEN moves again. I mean, could models really get this timing, path and strength correct this far out? Probably explains why such a difference in handling this feature of the equation between GFS, CMC and Euro.
So now you can understand why its impossible to know the details of an event from 6-14 days away but how models can detect a possibility based on how things are flowing around.
Other than CG helping, I feel like a 1 man crew. Guys, what are your local meteorologists saying? Forecasts? Discussions? Thoughts? Analogs? National meteorologists?
Since we're getting closer in time we should update more. But since models are still all over the place I wont bold anything specific for now. Low confidence
NWS Philly
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016
FRIDAY-WEEKEND...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST USA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY PRETTY WARM SO
INITIALLY WE`RE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH SNOW OR ICE, IF ANY. REFRAINING
FROM DETAILS SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE SOLUTION IS BELOW AVERAGE.
I AM CONFIDENT OUR POPS ARE TOO LOW FOR ONE OF THESE WEEKEND DAYS
NWS NY
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS COMPLEX...WITH POTENTIALLY
TWO COASTAL LOWS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST SHOULD BE THE WEAKER
OF THE TWO STORMS...FORMS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING NORTHERN STREAM 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...THEN
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR LONG ISLAND ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
LOW FORMS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPER 700-500 HPA TROUGH/POSSIBLE CLOSED
LOW THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL TRACK...WITH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF KEEPING IT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT...BUT THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
COAST. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY-SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH THE
FIRST LOW...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST/SNOW IN THE INTERIOR
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT ON SUNDAY. NOTING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH FOR NOW IS PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY W OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH MAYBE AN EXTENSION TOWARDS THE EAST INTO SE
CANADA...THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR TO ULTIMATELY SUPPORT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SECOND LOW.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHAT...IF
ANY IMPACT...THESE SYSTEMS MAY HAVE ON THE TRI-STATE.
If this becomes another Lake Cutter, I'm gonna ...................
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BTW ... that's intense wind swept rains for the MA cape until the cold air rushes in as the storm leaves.. Hurricane force wind gusts
