January 15-18, 2016 Winter Storm (days, moving, lows, forecast)
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So models now agree its a Friday 15th, Saturday 16th Storm.
Euro throws us a bone? Not really. What a waste of a coastal storm.
Basically it doesn't merge (phase) the northern Jet Stream (& storm) with the Sub Tropical Jet (& coastal storm)...
If it can do this south of NJ then cold air will come rushing into the storm.
This would be rain, mix, crap
Do you see how the "circle" around the pressure bars start extending towards the coast? (see arrow). Then there's a gap in there. That's the Clipper and Coastal storm starting to merge together
Continuing the loop, this Euro run does not phase the 2 so they stay separate as they move Northeast. This doesn't allow true cold air to come into the juicier coastal storm.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL STILL SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX
LOW PRES SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP...WHICH WILL BE ALL
IMPORTANT IN PTYPE. MODELS DO HAVE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SETTING UP
ZONE FROM ACROSS NY STATE TO ACROSS THE REGION...BUT DIFFER IN THE
ALL IMPORTANT DETAILS. DO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GGEM AND ECMWF
DEVELOP STRONG LOW PRES PASSING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.
STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL OCEAN TEMPS OFF THE COAST...IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS TO AROUND 50 OFF THE S COAST.
THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WITH DEVELOPING E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
EFFECT THE PTYPE ISSUES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...PROBABLY
KEEPING PRECIP MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO NO STRONG HIGH ACROSS
QUEBEC THAT WOULD LOCK IN COLD AIR ACROSS REGION...ANOTHER SIGN
THAT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET HEAVY SNOWFALL /AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT/. WILL STILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM.
I have to admit at least this is exciting to be tracking something but it is frustrating on the other hand.
what Ed is saying here is that if the storm that's going toward the Great Lakes, or the energy of it, is weaker, that will allow a quicker transfer to the coastal storm that will develop.
as I've been saying it needs to transfer faster and south more like Delaware for a snow storm NJ Northward
Interesting. It's like the GFS heard us. Look what it does...
Friday 10pm notice the storm over Indiana is now opening up to the storm over North Carolina.. That means it's phasing earlier than shown before.
Problem is .. the warm air is already in... But because its 10pm, some surfaces are getting a mix or snow/sleet but that's mostly rain you see.
Then watch...
3 hours later at 1am Saturday... Merge is complete. It's now 1 storm off the Delaware coast and will strengthen. It's night time and the cold air is rushing into the storm but warm air is winning. Its a cold rain still for many of us..
Then watch ...
Saturday morning 10am a strong NorEaster off the Long Island coast. Notice where the 850mb freezing line is now.. This changed rain to an interior snowstorm.
Here are the snow totals from that run...
So again .... we need that transfer to happen soon like GFS showed but with colder temps around
Last edited by Cambium; 01-12-2016 at 10:30 AM..
Reason: Typo
Storm heading to Great Lakes is weak and makes the transfer off Virginia!
Powerful NorEaster sits at benchmark Saturday afternoon... Thick blue line important. South of that its rain. North its snow but that could trend colder still.
Big changes today trending colder and stronger with the coastal.
BUT WAIT ... THERES MORE???
Sunday another storm spits out from south to Mid Atlantic and this time there is cold air around! Notice where the darker blue line is now....over the Atlantic..
See the darker greens over CT? That's snow Sunday midday
Crazy active but what a mess for forecasters!!
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