January 15-18, 2016 Winter Storm (Canada, South, raining, Michigan)

[Cambium]

Do you guys have any idea how close this Saturdays storm was to becoming a major snowstorm for NYC to Boston?

• Track: Perfect
• Strength: Amazing
• Precip: Not a lot but enough
• Temps: Not supportive enough

And to say that in mid January is pretty darn sad.


I think Northern New England does well but Latest GFS Snow totals... Precip really lacking on this run. Only Maine does well....again. So 2 Snowstorms for Maine (Today 1/13 & Saturday 1/16)

[Cambium]

FRIGGIN RIDGE.


Needed the trough to dig down more in the East and the Arctic air would of been sufficient enough for this this to be a Philly to Boston Snowstorm!


For now, lets watch New England get some more snow.

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/687275312472801280

[Millkr4]

So will we get any snow in ct soon? All the weather apps I've checked don't say anything about snow here

[Cambium]

Ok, lets go over some frames from the GFS12z just out.. (doesn't mean it's exact or right, just pointing things out)


1. Saturday 1am. First off, GFS12z doesn't merge the storms. That's even worse for us. Second.. notice where the freezing line is at 4500'. It's pushed up to the Canadian border! So that green is pretty much rain even in PA and Buffalo. (I think this wasn't a good run)


But you get the idea that the storm you see right there over the Great Lakes is pushing the warm air north over land!





Look what happens Saturday 4am. Temps at the mid Level crashes over MA and CT. Why? Bare with me ...


Do you see on the image above how there are 2 complete black circles around the storm? Now look down here at 4am... There is a gap with the 2nd black line. This is the first indication that the storms are merging together and that in turn is pushing Arctic air into the area, hence the crashing of the temps aloft.


I don't know why its not showing it for PA and NY. Could be other reasons like Cold Air Damming from New England!


But notice where there heavier precip is ... near the storm and it's just too warm.





Now, Saturday 7am... Storm is off Long Island. GREAT SPOT!!! But just bad timing and too late of the phasing between the 2 storms.


However... notice the cold air crashing to the coast. Now we got some mixing going on but again.. notice where the heaviest precip is ... wrong side of the freezing line for snow!





Moving on a little further... Saturday 4pm.. Storm off the coast of Maine.. GFS STILL DOES NOT merge the 2 storms completely. But notice the Freezing line at 4500' now off the coast. Temps dropping but its too late.. precip moved out.





Details Details... I AM GLAD I AM NOT A FORECASTER!!

[AJ1013]

Snow for the south? Looking likely now! Where's NorthStarDelight?, Atlanta might get hammered. Rain, then lows in the 40's for me if this pans out *Yay*. I hope we can lock this pattern in. By far my favorite storm track

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by AJ1013

Snow for the south? Looking likely now! Where's NorthStarDelight?, Atlanta might get hammered. Rain, then lows in the 40's for me if this pans out *Yay*. I hope we can lock this pattern in. By far my favorite storm track

Holy Crap!!! That's a nice little snowstorm for the mountains down there and North Carolina! And that's the next day too (Sunday). Did you see where it goes?! Snowstorm for here Sunday night. LMAO.


What a crazy pattern!


I think the Euro say No to that solution. In fact had clear skies. So is the GFS being the GFS or is it onto something?!

[Cambium]

Thanks AJ1013 I almost didn't check the entire run... GFS12z...


After that Nor'Easter this Saturday ...


Look at next day, Sunday Evening. Another Nor'Easter!! Now look where that freezing line at 4500' is! Closer to the center of the storm and off the coast! SNOW!!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by AJ1013

Snow for the south? Looking likely now! Where's NorthStarDelight?, Atlanta might get hammered. Rain, then lows in the 40's for me if this pans out *Yay*. I hope we can lock this pattern in. By far my favorite storm track

Look at the Canadian. Nope. NADA. Euro yesterday said NADA too.


GFS up to its old tricks?

[Cambium]

Ummm. Euro12z, what?


I saw this and had to check the details... Notice.. Storm off the coast .. 850mb freezing line not as far north as before.





Closer look. 2 storms at the same time. Euro says temps are colder then previously thought. So I check further...





Yup. For Danbury, not worried about the surface in mid 30s. 850s are below freezing with precip. Have to check the sounding when it uploads and will post snow totals. Judging by this .. the storm is lacking precip but still... 1-3" of snow, not 1" of rain.