Winter Storm January 12-14, 2019 (rainfall, world, traffic, South)

[LynnBBQ]

I live in the St Louis metro area and we're already planning our milk / bread / egg runs for Thursday night!

[westsideboy]

I'll vote #2. That's where I live, and a weekend snow storm would be very nice.

[Cambium]

Poll closes midday tomorrow. Get your vote in soon.

Originally Posted by LynnBBQ

I live in the St Louis metro area and we're already planning our milk / bread / egg runs for Thursday night!

Here's the NWS discussion for your area. Interesting they are going with the GFS

Area Forecast Discussion..
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
539 AM CST Wed Jan 9 2019

Models continue to advertise a potential winter storm for our
area beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday night.

Precipitation should spread east-northeastward into much of central
and eastern MO, west of the Mississippi River Friday afternoon as
upper level divergence increases ahead of a southern stream
shortwave over the southern Plains with low-mid level warm air
advection increasing across southeast MO and southwest IL on the
nose of a southwesterly low level jet. This precipitation should
spread into west central and southwest IL Friday evening as the
southern stream shortwave tries to phase with a northern stream
shortwave dropping southeastward through the northern Plains. With
strong evaporative cooling at the onset due to dry air in the low
levels of the atmosphere along with intensifying vertical motion the
precipitation type should favor mainly snow as the forecast
soundings show the low level temperature profile cooling to the wet
bulb temperature. There may be enough of an elevated warm layer
Friday afternoon and night to generate some sleet, mainly across
central and southeast MO. It appears that there may be break in the
precipitation Saturday morning or at least a period of lighter
intensity precipitation, but the intensity may ramp up again across
southeast MO and southwest IL Saturday afternoon into the evening as
the 850 mb low moves northeastward from AR into the TN Valley region
with the surface low moving into MS and AL further south.

Followed the operational GFS model solution as it has been consistent the
past several runs and looks reasonable.

Discounted the NAM model at
this time as it appears a little too strong with the southern stream
shortwave, is a little overdone with its QPF, and looks a little too
far north with the position of the 850 mb and surface lows.

ECMWF model develops a closed low at 500 mb by early Saturday
evening and is a little further north with its 850 mb low moving it
through southeast MO Saturday evening while the surface low moves
northeastward into northwestern TN. The ECMWF model solution would
keep significant accumulating snow going through Saturday night,
particularly across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
At this time keep pops and light QPF going Saturday night, but not
of the magnitude that the latest ECMWF model run would warrant.
Still too early to pin down where the best snow amounts will occur,
but confidence is increasing that significant accumulation is likely
across parts of our area which will hamper travel, mainly Friday
night and Saturday and also possibly Saturday night as well.
Flurries may continue on Sunday with low level moisture still in
place and a positively tilted upper level trough over our area. Any
precipitation should end by Sunday night as the upper level trough
shifts south-southeast of our area with a relatively strong surface
ridge over the region..

[Cambium]

Here's a look at the latest GFS snow totals. This is based on 10:1 ratios.


Good 3-4" for St Louis. Check out Virginia! Let me grab a discussion from there see what they are saying.





NWS Blacksburg, Virginia

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1210 PM EST Wed Jan 9 2019


Will see increased cloud cover from west
to east with lows in the mid/upper 20s to near 30 Friday night.

Then eyes turn toward the storm system that still appears to affect
our region Saturday into Saturday night. Confidence continues to
increase on wintry weather potential beginning sometime in this
period, which could be quite notable but there remains a
considerable deal of uncertainty on details from thermal structure
and interplay of mid-level synoptic details. Guidance generally
appears to indicate late Saturday into Saturday night as a starting
point for potential impact. However, among other things, the
mid/upper flow pattern is pretty complex (featuring an omega block
in the west and a northern stream shortwave trough affecting New
England).


Any subtle change in these mid-level features will exert
significant influence on the forecast. Models also show a somewhat
milder trend with the 850 mb 0C line hugging the VA/NC border or
just south, so there are still questions on precip type at least for
our roughly southern third of counties. Official forecast will call
for increasing PoPs but will cap them at high Likely for Saturday
night and as snow, but how far north warmer air aloft can make it if
at all could introduce snow/sleet into the mix. So the potential
exists for some wintry weather impact for the weekend but the extent
of those impacts and what/how substantial accumulations may look
like is still unclear.

Forecast confidence is overall moderate to high through Friday
night. While there`s an increasing potential for a storm system to
affect the region starting Saturday into Saturday night, model
variability in details renders confidence at moderate levels.

[Cambium]

Great Graphics. You always need the Jet Streams to Phase (Merge together) to create a big storm!

IMO I think its going to be Senario #2 here. No phasing. They stay separate. Southern Stream Jet will be the main reason for the snows south of NYC and be a weaker storm

https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1082744139450671104.

[TheseGoTo11]

Richmond over a foot, more than their avg annual total!

[user491]

Looks like I’m going to get a decent snow out of this. I’m planning on going snowboarding at Snowshoe on Saturday or Sunday, depending on when the storm arrives.

We got a 12 in storm in December, and I’d love to get another significant storm this weekend. Some of the maps in this thread have me around 8 inches.

[Cambium]

ECMWF for Philly.


00z on left, 12z on right. Actually a tad less with the new run.

00z: 0.32" (3-4" snow)
12z: 0.26" (2-3" snow)

Cold enough at the Surface and mid levels for sure.. Look at those 5000' temps! (850mb in the teens F°!)


New run says it will be 11°F in Philly at 7am Monday. LOL. Might be a bit too low.





For Danbury CT the new run actually increased the precip amount. Interesting.

[Randomguy1234]

I vote for region 1. It contains Buffalo.

[twingles]

.1 inch for Raleigh, we'll have a delayed opening on Monday