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Summer?! We're barely out of winter here in the freaking Northeast. It's 31 degrees with windchills in the teens here in MA. This is insanity. We definitely got the **** end of the stick for weather this year. Makes my choice to move to Southern California after I finish school even easier!!
You need to get an atmospheric river of storms to go through and break down those exceptionally high SST's
it will start a lot of weather debates if that water in 2016 looks the exact same as 2014 and 2015. I would think it will be quite unprecedented if next year that same huge pool of warm water is there. That would be 3 straight years in a row. I mean we are supposed to be in the cold PDO cycle.
I mean we are supposed to be in the cold PDO cycle.
Yup.. for those not sure... Phases "usually" last 20-30yrs. Warm phase started late 1970s. That would put us right now in the cold phase of the Pacific and its showing.
1 year or couple seasons doesn't = a phase shift. It's just a "pop" and "drop". Just like in the warm phase we had some cold moments in the Pacific. Have to look at the bigger picture and not compare 1-2 yrs to a multi decade phase.
Summer?! We're barely out of winter here in the freaking Northeast. It's 31 degrees with windchills in the teens here in MA. This is insanity. We definitely got the **** end of the stick for weather this year. Makes my choice to move to Southern California after I finish school even easier!!
I think I need to move to Mexico or something after this, there's no possible way the arctic blasts can reach there...right guys? GUYS?!!?
it will start a lot of weather debates if that water in 2016 looks the exact same as 2014 and 2015. I would think it will be quite unprecedented if next year that same huge pool of warm water is there. That would be 3 straight years in a row. I mean we are supposed to be in the cold PDO cycle.
Yeah it probably will.....
I'm sure a pattern like that has occurred many many times over the course of decades or centuries.
I wonder how long the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" as it has been coined lasted during the California mega droughts of the past? You would have to have a similar atmospheric and SST set up to produce those drought conditions right?
Quote:
The longest droughts of the 20th century, what Californians think of as severe, occurred from 1987 to 1992 and from 1928 to 1934. Both, Stine said, are minor compared to the ancient droughts of 850 to 1090 and 1140 to 1320.
I think I need to move to Mexico or something after this, there's no possible way the arctic blasts can reach there...right guys? GUYS?!!?
Wrong. El Paso, on the border with Mexico, reached 1 *F as recently as Feb 2011 (AND had a 15 *F HIGH, some 45 *F below normal, earlier that month), and has gone subzero in the past.
my gut feeling is that we're in for a normal/slightly cooler than normal summer this year. there's many cases of when a very hot summer has been followed by a much colder summer or vice versa here. e.g 93-94 and 97-98
Yup.. for those not sure... Phases "usually" last 20-30yrs. Warm phase started late 1970s. That would put us right now in the cold phase of the Pacific and its showing.
1 year or couple seasons doesn't = a phase shift. It's just a "pop" and "drop". Just like in the warm phase we had some cold moments in the Pacific. Have to look at the bigger picture and not compare 1-2 yrs to a multi decade phase.
How is it showing? The last two years have had the classic warm phase SST anomalies in the Pacific. Cold phase of the PDO doesn't have that crazy warm water along the west coast. So, the last two years popped back to warm PDO. Seattle and places like that get quite cold winters when the PDO is in cold cycle. When this flip backs to the phase we are supposed to be in (PDO cold), they won't be having this ridge sitting over them endlessly.
How is it showing? The last two years have had the classic warm phase SST anomalies in the Pacific. Cold phase of the PDO doesn't have that crazy warm water along the west coast.
You think the Warm phase didn't have cold anomalies sitting there? Look at 1991, 1999 and 2000. We were in the warm phase yet Pacific/PDO was cold those years..
So Again... why are you looking at 2 yrs when a phase = 20-30 yrs worth? Look at the graph.. It's clear what phase we're in (Cold PDO as you said). 1-2yrs of warmth means nothing.
Now.... if we continue with more yrs with a warm Pacific next 10 yrs+, it will be the shortest cold phase we know of. LOL
Which leads to my saying.. our records and knowledge of weather, oceans, and climate is comical.
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