Spring 2015 thread (Northern Hemisphere) (climate, warm, ice, average)
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To conclude, taking everything into account, after the present well above normal temperatures under high pressure moving from the British Isles to SE Europe, there is a high risk of temperatures lowering to normal across Europe to slightly below normal in the west through the later part of April and into early May, possibly more below normal according to the CFS version.
Yes, but even further below average for us in eastern North America. What else is new. I guess May will be well below average here with that warm water in the NE Pacific getting even warmer.
I've got a trip to Paris booked for 19-26 May, and yes, I'm quite excited.
I do have a few concerns about the weather, though. I've been checking the current forecasts, and it's showing highs of 20-21 C, with lows above 10 C, which is what I expected for when I'll be there, based on historical averages.
Realistically, what can I expect in terms of weather when I'm there in the later part of May? Do I need to be concerned about nasty heat and 100% sunny days for the whole week, or would it be realistic to expect at least some "average" weather of 20 C? (Which I consider perfect for being out and about, especially with a breeze.) What's the worse I could expect in terms of heat at that time of the year? Is 30 C common in late May? (too hot, I hope I don't see that.) What's the best I can hope for on the cool, cloudy side? 15 C days with heavy overcast and perhaps a bit of rain? (That would be ideal too - I'd not have to wear shorts...lol.)
At least I didn't make the mistake of planning the trip for June, or god forbid, July or August...lol.
We have a Parisian on board, so he might give a better answer, but I'm quite familiar with the climate. May is the season when the diurnal ranges are the highest. So be prepared for some warm days and crispy nights. Definitely keep your jacket at hand if you're staying out for the whole evening, lows around 5C are not unheard of! As in May the Mediterranean and Northern Africa is just starting to heat up, the chance of an oppressive heatwave is almost zero - last year the highest temp in May at Paris-Montsouris was just 26.1C! The weather is variable, so it might be cool and rainy one day, and sunny and warm the next.
Despite the variable weather and new weather systems bursting in from the Atlantic, I think it's safe to say that you don't have to take any special precautions, if you're expecting hurricanes, torrential rain, heatwaves, frosty nights - no. Won't happen.
And oh, leave your shorts at home, they will shout "tourist". Use long pants even if it's 100C. Parisians don't wear shorts, they're for hillbillies.
I've got a trip to Paris booked for 19-26 May, and yes, I'm quite excited.
I do have a few concerns about the weather, though. I've been checking the current forecasts, and it's showing highs of 20-21 C, with lows above 10 C, which is what I expected for when I'll be there, based on historical averages.
I know you said May but here's next 16 days per latest GFS6z. We all know anything past 10 days can change a lot so don't put too much thought into forecasts especially 6 weeks away.
Feel free to ask me for the data again beginning/mid May
These temp projections kinda looks similar to here actually.
523cm of snow on zugspitze. the most i've seen there. has snowed quite much there recently...
some statistics on snow depth there would be appreciated.
We have a Parisian on board, so he might give a better answer, but I'm quite familiar with the climate. May is the season when the diurnal ranges are the highest. So be prepared for some warm days and crispy nights. Definitely keep your jacket at hand if you're staying out for the whole evening, lows around 5C are not unheard of! As in May the Mediterranean and Northern Africa is just starting to heat up, the chance of an oppressive heatwave is almost zero - last year the highest temp in May at Paris-Montsouris was just 26.1C! The weather is variable, so it might be cool and rainy one day, and sunny and warm the next.
Despite the variable weather and new weather systems bursting in from the Atlantic, I think it's safe to say that you don't have to take any special precautions, if you're expecting hurricanes, torrential rain, heatwaves, frosty nights - no. Won't happen.
And oh, leave your shorts at home, they will shout "tourist". Use long pants even if it's 100C. Parisians don't wear shorts, they're for hillbillies.
Good to hear - this makes me feel a bit better. I especially like the big diurnal ranges - I love sleeping in cool weather. I also like the prospect of changeable weather - we'll use the rainy days for things like the Louvre, and the sunny days for the Eiffel Tower, etc. Good to know that I won't have to worry about 30 C weather - 26 C I can handle, but no more than that...lol.
Unfortunately, shorts are a necessity for me at temps above 20 C, especially if it's sunny and not breezy, since I sweat much too easily, especially when I'm doing a lot of walking. I guess I need to plead with the weather gods for a cool, cloudy week while I'm there if I don't want to stand out too much...lol.
Yes, but even further below average for us in eastern North America. What else is new. I guess May will be well below average here with that warm water in the NE Pacific getting even warmer.
You can take the longer range CFSv2 with a grain of salt, but at least it's not showing negative anomalies for my region, with basically average to above average conditions from now through August..... We shall see
523cm of snow on zugspitze. the most i've seen there. has snowed quite much there recently...
some statistics on snow depth there would be appreciated.
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the most i've seen there. has snowed quite much there recently... 
I especially like the big diurnal ranges - I love sleeping in cool weather. 
