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Rather cold weather out east, dry and very warm in California. Sound familiar? Similar setup to last winter in many ways. No polar vortex... yet. And the Midwest hasn't seen as extreme cold anomalies, though the Northeast has. Current month to date anomaly is about 4°F colder than average, last January 2°F colder than average. January 2014 had a lot of back and forth between cold and mild along the east coast:
As for California, most of the state has gotten no rain this January in what on average is the wettest month of the year. Very similar ridging pattern.
So, now that we’re once again witnessing a recurrence of a similar high-amplitude flow pattern and an extended mid-winter dry period across California, does that mean that the Triple-R has returned? No–not yet, at least. December’s active weather means that there is not yet a multi-month ridging signature over the northeastern Pacific, and thus the Triple-R as previously defined is not present at the moment. But strong ridging anomalies are now creeping back into monthly averages, and as this pattern continues for the next 1-2 weeks I do expect that a stronger signal will emerge.
An animation shows the pressure pattern of this January vs last. About the same scale as last year's. Other interesting patten is how snowless California is: most of the December storms were very warm. Some sites at 8000 feet are snowless.
This is cold folks... No matter how you slice it, the polar vortex is dropping into the lower Hudson Bay and with that watch out.
Japanese model for February... Major high lat blocking over the pole. You know what that means for Europe and North America
and the CFSv2 ensembles aren't playing around either. Overall pattern next 45 days....
as a side note I've been following soil moisture levels in the Central Plains. There has been a lack of deep snow pack there during this winter causing drought to begin.
If the pattern doesn't switch soon, (snow pack is vital for keep soil moisture) that may be a precursor to a long hot summer in the Midwest
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 01-24-2015 at 01:28 PM..
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