Winter 2011 Thread (icy, 2015, precipitation, storm)

[FVWinters]

For Oregon's Willamette Valley, it has been a very atypical start to our winter. Since December1, we've had no precipation and none is forecast for at least the next 7 days. Nearly two weeks rain free is unusual enough during any winter month under any circumstance but a strongly negative PDO (Pacific Decadial Oscillation) amplified by a La Nina on steroids makes this dry spell almost unique.

Extended rainless periods during our normally sloppy winters are often accompanied by howling winds and extreme (for us) cold. Other than Saturday, when we were fog bound and temperatures remained in the 30's (0-2), we have enjoyed mostly sunny skies and nearly average temperatures. I feel blessed.

This is certain to go away sooner or later. The deep weather cycle I have described in previous posts relating to our recent brutal spring sentence us to a strong likelihood of a wetter than average and colder than average winter and another chilly and damp spring. More slop and gloom, as if we already didn't have a bellyfull of it last year. Another round of Edinburgh or Copenhagen visiting western Oregon, if you will.

My prediction for the coming winter season - actually a mere guess based on what we've past experienced during similar oceanic/wind patterns - is 20 to 40% above average precipitation with sticking snow amounting to 4" (10cm) or more at least once (don't laugh, this is very rare out where I live). It is possible we'll see sticking snow as much as half a dozen times through the next three to five months. I don't expect a record cold winter but would be surprised if any month between now and April manages to claw its way to within 2 (1.2) degrees of average.

[Dreamnine]

Another smattering of snow this morning.

[dunno what to put here]

Here's a picture of snow in northern England (Durham/Cumbria/Yorkshire border)

[Boompa]

Sitting on the Mexican Border with snow on the Mountains, barely above freezing today. I may go visit relatives in the midwest where its warmer

[ilovemycomputer90]

Flood Watch in effect tomorrow, though there has been some heavy downpours this afternoon.

More interestingly, a Winter Storm Watch has been issue for tomorrow night into Thursday. Possibility for 3-8 inches of snow in the higher elevations. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[ben86]

Originally Posted by dunno what to put here

Here's a picture of snow in northern England (Durham/Cumbria/Yorkshire border)

Wow, how nice is that?! I'm hoping for some of that when I go back to my parents' place at Christmas (probably my best chance for snow this year, plus I don't like the snow in London as much for all the chaos it brings), only three Christmases in a row with lying snow (and about six or seven in the past 20 years) would be pushing the laws of probability a bit far. As for here we've had fairly bright skies (though the sun doesn't clear the roofs/trees for much of the day so not much actual sun) and seasonal temperatures with lows around 2 and highs around 7, but a chilly wind. Still no frost here yet never mind snow.

[dunno what to put here]

We got our first snow before our first (air) frost.. something isn't right here!

[nei]

It's 59°F with a dew point of 57°F and rain.

But expected to drop in the next few days.

[txsizzler]

Been an unusually cold start to our winter here in S. Texas. Many areas experienced a VERY early freeze in November (first freezes usually average mid to late December), and the weather has been running below normal fairly frequently since. The sad thing is, we are not getting the rains that N. Texas is getting plowed with, so the Exceptional Drought conditions continue to persist.


Ian

[Weatherfan2]

Thankfully it's going to be around 8-9 degrees tomorrow, which will melt the remains of all that evil ice outside.

Glad we're getting all the cold below average weather out the way now, hopefully Jan-Feb will be really nice and mild.