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It's a forecast. I analyze weather from data - not forecasts!
Metservice forecasts are fairly accurate. You make it sound as though they generate their forecasts using a random number generator.
By paying attention to MetService forecasts I predicted both snowfalls this year nearly a whole week in advance and people scoffed at me (including several members of this forum). Turned out I was right.
Sometimes you notice their forecasts changing from day to day, but if they consistently predict a spell of cold weather the odds are very strong that it will in fact come to pass.
keep the house up to a livable temperature (at least 16°C)
16 C? I never let the temp in my room go below 22 C. To hell with wearing jackets indoors! I just have a little electric fan heater that I use to keep the temp consistently in the 22 - 25 C range. This is during waking hours, mind -- it drops down to the low teens overnight.
16 C? I never let the temp in my room go below 22 C. To hell with wearing jackets indoors! I just have a little electric fan heater that I use to keep the temp consistently in the 22 - 25 C range. This is during waking hours, mind -- it drops down to the low teens overnight.
That (was) the temperature in the hall. Individual rooms such as my computer room would be kept to at least 20°C. It would have cost ridiculous money to heat the hallways etc... up to 20°C.
Our house was made from stone with no wall cavities or insulation so very very cold and just keeping it up to 16°C in winter was some achievement.
But I am not living there now, so it will be interesting to see how this place in margate copes. It has very large windows all across the western side, and given this is a relatively sunny place, the sun all afternoon helps to really heat up the apartment in the day. But the westerly wind cools it down a lot at night. So I'd expect quite large diurnal ranges in here.
Well not everyone sticks the heating on willy nilly. 13c here at the moment and the heating is off. Only need a light jacket to to outside, don't even need one in the sun.
The past few nights have dropped down to about 41 F / 5 C and we haven't turned the heat on. Current temperature inside is 60 F / 15.5 C and it feels fine in here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChesterNZ
What makes you think that? The extended forecast doesn't give me much hope.
This forecast is objectively horrible -- all days bar Wednesday have below average temps (many of them well below average):
Tomorrow
19 Sep
Max 13°C
MIN 3°C
Rain and fresh cold southwesterlies from late morning.
Issued: 4:39pm 18 Sep
Tuesday
20 Sep
Max 12°C
MIN 3°C
Showers clear to fine weather. Southwest dies out.
Issued: 1:29pm 18 Sep
Wednesday
21 Sep
Max 16°C
MIN 8°C
Cloudy periods. Northeasterlies developing.
Issued: 1:29pm 18 Sep
Thursday
22 Sep
Max 16°C
MIN 5°C
Cloudy, some rain at times. Northeast dies out.
Issued: 1:29pm 18 Sep
Friday
23 Sep
Max 14°C
MIN 3°C
Dry. Light winds.
Issued: 1:10pm 18 Sep
Saturday
24 Sep
Max 14°C
MIN 4°C
Dry with northwesterlies.
Issued: 1:10pm 18 Sep
Sunday
25 Sep
Max 12°C
MIN 3°C
Showers with westerlies.
Issued: 1:10pm 18 Sep
Monday
26 Sep
Max 12°C
MIN 4°C
Showers with westerlies.
Issued: 1:10pm 18 Sep
Tuesday
27 Sep
Max 13°C
MIN 4°C
Showers with westerlies.
Issued: 1:10pm 18 Sep
Not sure about the lows, but those highs are only slightly below to around average. What else would you expect this time of year? BTW, yesterday I viewed a live webcam of Christchurch and the sun was out. Of course it may have not been out all day, but it was still shining nonetheless at one point.
Metservice forecasts are fairly accurate. You make it sound as though they generate their forecasts using a random number generator.
By paying attention to MetService forecasts I predicted both snowfalls this year nearly a whole week in advance and people scoffed at me (including several members of this forum). Turned out I was right.
Sometimes you notice their forecasts changing from day to day, but if they consistently predict a spell of cold weather the odds are very strong that it will in fact come to pass.
True enough, but only data counts. The worst outcome you will get is a colder than average September - which will probably apply to most of NZ - but not a wet one (in fact members of the forum I referred to are already talking about likely water restrictions later in the season). In that case there's a pretty good possibility of a bounce back in temperatures in October. If you want to raise your hopes a little, consider 1961 when the SI east coast had a wet and cold September (also very cloudy). The Oct-Dec that followed was amongst the warmest and driest on record. September's conditions only tell you something about September.
Well not everyone sticks the heating on willy nilly.
We do not "stick the heating on willy nilly", we happened to live in a very cold house, in a cold climate, and it happens therefore, by logical deduction, to cost a lot more to keep the house up to a livable temperature (at least 16°C) than if the climate were warmer.
The heating in our house ran by thermostat, guessing most of you northerners don't know what they are as you seem to think people just "put" the heating on or off, Er no, the heating will come on whenever the temperature indoors gets low enough (below 16 degrees) and hence can even come on in summer if it is cold enough. That is not wasting money or heating, it simply means we have a cold house and in cold weather heating is needed to keep the temperature up to the specified level in the thermostat. Matters like this are clearly too complex for you.
Not all houses like the one you might live in are built to retain heat. Without being modernised and upgraded (also at great cost) rooms in my house when the heating had gone off, would get down to 7-10°C in the winter and spring.
Just another reason why the cold stinks and is not a natural condition for humans to live in, hence why things like houses with all these things to retain heat, artificial heating, etc,,,, are required in these awful climates.
Ummmm....AC is also required in warm/hot climates, in fact the US South didn't really begin to grow until the AC was invented. If your heater breaks in a cold climate you can use wood to heat up your house, how are you gonna cool off in a hot, humid climate if the AC breaks? Spend 12 hours a day in a cold shower?
Ummmm....AC is also required in warm/hot climates, in fact the US South didn't really begin to grow until the AC was invented?
Not interested in the AC/heating etc.. debate again. It's been beaten to death before and just goes round in circles. I have no desire to sit in a cold house and so have a thermostat to control the heat so that's the end of it, for me. One reason AC is required is actually because of housing designs being made to retain warmth so well in winter that they also retain heat in summer during the night and it doesn't cool off indoors unless AC is used even when it does cool down outside!
Quote:
Originally Posted by alex985
[
. If your heater breaks in a cold climate you can use wood to heat up your house
Where will the wood go? We don't have open fires in our house. What do we do, put the wood in a pile in the middle of the room and suffer smoke inhalation.
Last edited by Weatherfan2; 09-18-2011 at 02:30 PM..
Haha, you are the one that brought into debate in the first place by saying "cold stinks and it's not a natural condition for humans to live in, which is why most houses have artificial heating"
And I'm sorry I didn't know you didn't have a fireplace, but still you can throw on a sweatshirt or make yourself a hot beverage..we're warm blooded mammals it's a lot easier for us to warm up than cool down, we're not cold-blooded reptiles that need to be in the sun all day to be warm.
Haha, you are the one that brought into debate in the first place by saying "cold stinks and it's not a natural condition for humans to live in, which is why most houses have artificial heating"
And I'm sorry I didn't know you didn't have a fireplace, but still you can throw on a sweatshirt or make yourself a hot beverage..we're warm blooded mammals it's a lot easier for us to warm up than cool down, we're not cold-blooded reptiles that need to be in the sun all day to be warm.
We do have fireplaces but they were fitted with gas heaters instead, for some reason.
I find I take far longer to warm up than cool down (but Im sure I'm a mammal....) especially my feet and hands. Tall and thin with low blood pressure so I prefer warmth. I don't like hot drinks (I like only drinks which are near freezing when served) and I already were thick clothing so as not to get too cold. I am aware I may be an exception in this case. Paradise to me would be living somewhere like Singapore, always what I would call a "temperate" level of warmth.
In colder climates if there were no heating a lot of people would die, espcially old people, like what happened last year when British Gas put the prices up and we had the terribly cold winter. People dying in their own homes due to hypothermia. So heating for most people is required because of the cold, and will make living expenses higher which was the whole jist of the "argument". AC too will do this but for a much shorter period in the year at higher latitudes and not at all in the UK which is where I was really talking about.
So the best climate is one which is neither hot nor cold and has the smallest range of temperature and fewest heating or cooling degree days, from the heating or AC point of view.
One reason I'm glad I moved here is because heating costs are worlds lower than in Buxton due to the milder weather.
Last edited by Weatherfan2; 09-18-2011 at 02:57 PM..
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