Predict the outcome of Russia-Georgia (Putin, Israel, borders, independent)

[rbryant]

I know there are several threads on the conflict in Georgia and South Ossetia. As such, there are some very informative posts on the subject.
So, to get down to business, what do you guys/gals think will happen in Georgia. Do you think that Russia will annex Georgia, then perhaps take aim on Ukraine? Or do you think that Russia will occupy parts of Georgia and send a message to the leadership.
My take: I think Russia will eventually bargain with Washington and NATO. Part of the bargain will involve the missile defense system in the Czech Republic. I don't see the US backing out of their plans to install interceptors, so other concessions will be made. I doubt very seriously that the US and NATO will become militarily involved...in fact, I think Saakashvili probably frustrated the west by playing into Putin's hands. More than that, the US and NATO don't wish to pick a fight with Russia over Georgia. So, I don't think we will see a replay of the 1999 NATO bombing in Serbia. All in all, this thing gets wrapped up by diplomacy and some concessions from Washington.

[NewToCA]

Too early to tell, the subsequent actions likely depend upon who wins the election here.

[ottomobeale]

Ukraine unlikely. Georgia created the opportunity for Russia. Georgia was being a ****head. The Russian bear had an excuse to give a bear hug. So they did.

Think of it as hunting a bear with a BB gun. You only **** off the bear and do no real damage to it.

[scuba steve]

I doubt that Russia will try and keep the entire country. There's a good chance that stir things up more than they would like to. I see this as more of an Israel / Lebanon type of conflict. Shelling, moving into parts of the country, but not with the goal of taking it over. Of course it has the side effect of sending a message to Ukraine, just a friendly reminder of who holds the power in their neighborhood..

[oz in SC]

Russia has already stated Georgian forces won't be allowed back into Abkhazia or South Ossetia,basically making both regions Russian.

Russia also stated Georgian forces wouldn't be allowed near the borders of said regions,thus surrendering more of Georgia to Russia.

[mackinac81]

I wonder if this will encourage the western powers to speed up Georgian and Ukrainian membership in NATO and/or the EU (??)

[oz in SC]

Originally Posted by mackinac81

I wonder if this will encourage the western powers to speed up Georgian and Ukrainian membership in NATO and/or the EU (??)

Hopefully it will...or these nations will form a pact of their own to defend against Russian aggression.

[Luke29]

Originally Posted by oz in SC

Hopefully it will...or these nations will form a pact of their own to defend against Russian aggression.

Serious?....the former soviet republics need US/UK to protect themselves from Russia.

[oz in SC]

As Russia consdiers most of these independent nations under their control to some extent I would think they need to band together or join NATO to counteract Russian aggression.

[Raphael07]

I think Russia will just Annex Abazakhia and South Ossetia, I doubt they will annex Georgia because that would just make the West and the UN angry at them.