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The Pentagon emphasized that its initial focus would be on providing relief supplies, but announced Wednesday that it would also begin efforts to rebuild the Georgian military.
Over than 90% of people that live in South Ossetia are russian citizens, and 1500 of them were killed by Saakashvilly at one night. Russian 58th Army came to free Chinval only after 16 hours of it's bombing.
Over than 90% of people that live in South Ossetia are russian citizens, and 1500 of them were killed by Saakashvilly at one night. Russian 58th Army came to free Chinval only after 16 hours of it's bombing.
Although I feel that Georgia was baited by the Kremlin, Saakashvilly made a terrible miscalculation. I think and hope this should keep Georgia away from NATO. The last thing we need is to sign a mutual defense pact with an unstable,former USSR republic. For that matter, I think American and NATO interests should stop at Poland and the Czech Republic. It's time to quite meddling in the Russians' backyard and establish a buffer zone, if for nothing else to cool things down for awhile.
Although I feel that Georgia was baited by the Kremlin, Saakashvilly made a terrible miscalculation. I think and hope this should keep Georgia away from NATO. The last thing we need is to sign a mutual defense pact with an unstable,former USSR republic. For that matter, I think American and NATO interests should stop at Poland and the Czech Republic. It's time to quite meddling in the Russians' backyard and establish a buffer zone, if for nothing else to cool things down for awhile.
before WWII, America stated that their interests stopped at hawaii. can't find the quote at the moment but look what happened. Japanese invaded the Phillipines!
NATO/EU influence should keep spreading. In military strategy, you always want to be on the offensive. only defend when absolutely necessary. When u go on the defensive, you lower morale and limit your options.
Spreading NATO/EU influence creates a bigger buffer. Cooling things down will make you look weak in the Russians' eyes. They rape anything that looks weak.
If you quit meddling in Russia's backyard, how are you going get the oil out? Energy demands in America demand their oil. You do not want to russia's slave like germany.
Well since we are playing... look into the crystal ball, I'll bite.
Georgian support by the west will be cursory at best and likely in the form of simple aid but I doubt actual confrontation will take place in the military sense.
Georgia will eventually be divided as Kosovo and Serbia did from their parent state, into an independent state allied with Russia and a smaller Georgian state. This guarantees Russian desires to have a land access to the Middle East and Iranian energy supplies.
The US will hurl words, seek UN sanctions but I doubt will push too hard because in doing so they risk quashing any attempts at preventing Iran's nuclear aspirations. Since Iran appears to be a larger tactical target at the moment, we will capitulate to Russia on this.
In a broader scope, the EU which relies heavily on Russian energy sources will also hurl a few words but ultimately give in. At the same time, those smaller states that have attempted to resist American influence will likely be embolden further, so I would expect to hear more out of the mouth of Chavez types around the world.
In the end, we will have little say in what the outcome will be.
I know there are several threads on the conflict in Georgia and South Ossetia. As such, there are some very informative posts on the subject.
So, to get down to business, what do you guys/gals think will happen in Georgia. Do you think that Russia will annex Georgia, then perhaps take aim on Ukraine? Or do you think that Russia will occupy parts of Georgia and send a message to the leadership.
My take: I think Russia will eventually bargain with Washington and NATO. Part of the bargain will involve the missile defense system in the Czech Republic. I don't see the US backing out of their plans to install interceptors, so other concessions will be made. I doubt very seriously that the US and NATO will become militarily involved...in fact, I think Saakashvili probably frustrated the west by playing into Putin's hands. More than that, the US and NATO don't wish to pick a fight with Russia over Georgia. So, I don't think we will see a replay of the 1999 NATO bombing in Serbia. All in all, this thing gets wrapped up by diplomacy and some concessions from Washington.
Remember both the missle defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland need to be approved by Parliament in each country. Prior to the offensive there was widespread majority public support against it in each country and after this it will probably only grow. Each government has a narrow hold on power and I have posted links (other threads) saying it is likey neither parliament will approve. Also not all of NATO is in favor of and most noticeably the support is weaker in Western Europe. Russia has sent a strong message about approving it to both countries. Do you really think Iran is targeting Poland or The Czech Republic in any scenario?
Location: Russia's Georgia-Invasion-Planning Press Center
133 posts, read 338,525 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rbryant
Although I feel that Georgia was baited by the Kremlin, Saakashvilly made a terrible miscalculation. I think and hope this should keep Georgia away from NATO. The last thing we need is to sign a mutual defense pact with an unstable,former USSR republic. For that matter, I think American and NATO interests should stop at Poland and the Czech Republic. It's time to quite meddling in the Russians' backyard and establish a buffer zone, if for nothing else to cool things down for awhile.
Moreover, all these NATO's efforts are rather useless. What are they for? For defending from Russian nuclear attack? there is no use in sending this attack over the Czech and Europe. Open your globe and see that Russia has the direct border with the US on Far East and nothing would prevent those bombs from setting off from there... Moreover!! Nobody's going to!
They'd better spend all these money, oh no, !your money!, for something helpful... charity for instance...
Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: Missile Defense in Europe Falls to Next Administration (http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/missiledefense/articles/073008_md_update/ - broken link)
On July 8, the United States and the Czech Republic signed an initial agreement to build a missile defense radar on Czech soil. However, the agreement has to be ratified by the Czech parliament and perhaps even survive a public referendum. According to Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, the widespread unpopularity of the plan could bring down the government this fall. Topolanek's three-party governing coalition controls just 100 of the 200 seats in the Czech parliament's lower chamber, which is not enough to ratify the agreement. An opinion poll last month showed that nearly 70 percent of Czechs oppose placing a radar on Czech soil
The above is from the link.
This is one of the links referred to in my previous post
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