Gorbachev on Larry King: Georgia started the attacks not Russia (Putin, Iran)
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1. The citizens of South Ossetia have long expressed a desire to break away from Georgia and, in fact, declared themselves independent from Georgia in the 1990s.
2. On the first day of the 2008 Olympics, Georgia launched an all-out, "shock and awe" attack on numerous civilian targets in Tskhinvali, the capital city of South Ossetia
3. Russia, which shares a border and a long historical connection with South Ossetia, sent troops into the region to fight back the attacking Georgian military.
4. The arms for Georgia's attack on South Ossetia were largely provided by the US.
5. The US and UK news media have successfully managed to portray these events as a random, unprovoked and savage attack on Georgia by Russia.
I would enjoy hearing what Garry Kasparov the Russian chess master and political opponent of Dmitry Medvedev would have to say on this issue. From what I have heard from him, he seemed more pro-western and is a native of Azerbaijan so would know the region and its aspirations well.
I would enjoy hearing what Garry Kasparov the Russian chess master and political opponent of Dmitry Medvedev would have to say on this issue. From what I have heard from him, he seemed more pro-western and is a native of Azerbaijan so would know the region and its aspirations well.
I may have to do a few inquiries.
Wise move, here is a head start:
Mr. Sarkozy is attempting to remedy a crisis he helped bring about. Last April, France opposed the American push to fast-track Georgia's North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership. This was one of many missed opportunities that collectively built up Mr. Putin's sense of impunity. In this way the G-7 nations aided and abetted the Kremlin's ambitions.
Georgia blundered into a trap, although its imprudent aggression in South Ossetia was overshadowed by Mr. Putin's desire to play the strongman. Russia seized the chance to go on the offensive in Georgian territory while playing the victim/hero. Mr. Putin has long been eager to punish Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for his lack of respect both for Georgia's old master Russia, and for Mr. Putin personally.
President Bush's belatedly toughened language is welcome, but actual sanctions must now be considered. The Kremlin's ruling clique has vital interests -- i.e. assets -- abroad and those interests are vulnerable.
Mr. Sarkozy is attempting to remedy a crisis he helped bring about. Last April, France opposed the American push to fast-track Georgia's North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership. This was one of many missed opportunities that collectively built up Mr. Putin's sense of impunity. In this way the G-7 nations aided and abetted the Kremlin's ambitions.
Georgia blundered into a trap, although its imprudent aggression in South Ossetia was overshadowed by Mr. Putin's desire to play the strongman. Russia seized the chance to go on the offensive in Georgian territory while playing the victim/hero. Mr. Putin has long been eager to punish Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for his lack of respect both for Georgia's old master Russia, and for Mr. Putin personally.
President Bush's belatedly toughened language is welcome, but actual sanctions must now be considered. The Kremlin's ruling clique has vital interests -- i.e. assets -- abroad and those interests are vulnerable.
One thing I find most notable but seems absent from many discussions is the presence of Putin himself. Considering that Dmitry Medvedev is the President, little is mentioned of how overshadowed he is by Putin who is obviously the go to guy in all of this.
What I am having trouble getting my mind around was in reference to a link you posted on another thread from back in like March of this year. That piece as well as several others I have found in the course of looking into this, clearly show rising tensions and old bad blood in a very contentious, as well as strategic region of the world. (even Tom Clancy has written a few fictional books and games depicting this as the next volatile hotspot.) During the escalation of these tensions, it seemed to escape our radar that Russia might counter what it sees as aggression by the government of Mikheil Saakashvili, with overwhelming force. This has been fairly standard modus operandi of the Russian in the past... overwhelming by numbers.
More and more each day it appears that Saakashvili was reassured by the US that he had little to worry about. His very statements that the west has abandoned him seems to indicate that there was a good deal of cooperation and influence by the US in Georgia. Wouldn't it be prudent to consider all the possible ramifications that such actions might have on Russia's door step?
With France taking the lead here and intervening diplomatically, this too has the effect of empowering the EU's role in its own sphere of influence (as it should) I have zero doubts that the shift that is taking place globally, to push back upon American hegemonic influence is very real and is becoming more and more obvious.
Going to the UN to seek out sanctions against Russia also has its own set of consequences as then we can forget any hope of support from Russia against our desires to stop the Iranian nuclear development. With Russia having both a large number of personnel and a great deal of money tied up in the Bashir plant, any aggressive moves against Iran will in all likelihood be met with an equally forceful response. Do we risk this? Which is more important in the short term, Russia or Iran?
Shy of instating a draft, there is little we can do in terms of responding forcibly and militarily. Drop a few bombs and lob a few missiles? Will the UN be so eager to jump into the fray and intervene, I doubt it. Truth be known, there isn't a damn thing we can really do about it at the moment, unless shrub plans on using the football.
I don't think a well coordinated plan was hatched between the US and Georgia.
While certainly not privy to the details, I know a bit about the main players involved in this relationship. It wouldn't surprise me if Saakashvili discussed the problems he was having with Russia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and asked if we would provide some support with his resistence. I would suspect this would result in some "soft" assurances that we would be understanding of his desires, and with Saakashvili's penchant for risk taking might have assumed more help than realistically would be available.
But this is just speculation (though I'll bet it isn't all that inaccurate).
The question is where to go from here. Obviously we need Germany to take the lead in letting Russia know that Europe finds it unacceptable for Russia to remain in Georgia (less the two disputed regions). France just ain't up to the job.
I have mentioned other steps in multiple postings too, and don't want to keep repeating myself. I don't see an armed conflict here for us, though.
I don't think a well coordinated plan was hatched between the US and Georgia.
While certainly not privy to the details, I know a bit about the main players involved in this relationship. It wouldn't surprise me if Saakashvili discussed the problems he was having with Russia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and asked if we would provide some support with his resistence. I would suspect this would result in some "soft" assurances that we would be understanding of his desires, and with Saakashvili's penchant for risk taking might have assumed more help than realistically would be available.
But this is just speculation (though I'll bet it isn't all that inaccurate).
The question is where to go from here. Obviously we need Germany to take the lead in letting Russia know that Europe finds it unacceptable for Russia to remain in Georgia (less the two disputed regions). France just ain't up to the job.
I have mentioned other steps in multiple postings too, and don't want to keep repeating myself. I don't see an armed conflict here for us, though.
Well I certainly agree that it wasn't very well coordinated, that seems rather evident. However, his assurances may not have only come from the US but also Israel which apparently has very close ties with Georgia, not to mention a blossoming series of arms deals, information exchange, and military advisement. (according to Haaretz as I posted in other thread...just can't remember which now)
To be quite frank, I would like to see the EU take the lead on this issue all around. Not that we don't have a stake as we obviously do, but this is an issue literally on their door step and within their sphere of influence. It just gets old seeing the United States leading in either the diplomacy department or the force option when dealing with every stinking issue on the face of the globe.
Well I certainly agree that it wasn't very well coordinated, that seems rather evident. However, his assurances may not have only come from the US but also Israel which apparently has very close ties with Georgia, not to mention a blossoming series of arms deals, information exchange, and military advisement. (according to Haaretz as I posted in other thread...just can't remember which now)
To be quite frank, I would like to see the EU take the lead on this issue all around. Not that we don't have a stake as we obviously do, but this is an issue literally on their door step and within their sphere of influence. It just gets old seeing the United States leading in either the diplomacy department or the force option when dealing with every stinking issue on the face of the globe.
I had read your Haaretz article a bit differently, it looked to me like Georgia had hired a few guys who were in formerly in the Isreali military as part of their organzation, similar to us hiring a few of the former scientists from the old USSR to help our government in international negotiations back in the early 1990's.
Also, it appeared to me that the Georgian government used these relationships to help establish a pipeline for weapon purchase. If so, this would be substantially different than an official military assistance relationship between Georgia and Israel.
Overall, it appears to be a series of contractual relationships, much of it being training for the use of systems being sold by Israel to Georgia (especially the drones, which require a lot of training and support to control, program, maintain and interpret the data).
I had read your Haaretz article a bit differently, it looked to me like Georgia had hired a few guys who were in formerly in the Isreali military as part of their organzation, similar to us hiring a few of the former scientists from the old USSR to help our government in international negotiations back in the early 1990's.
Also, it appeared to me that the Georgian government used these relationships to help establish a pipeline for weapon purchase. If so, this would be substantially different than an official military assistance relationship between Georgia and Israel.
Overall, it appears to be a series of contractual relationships, much of it being training for the use of systems being sold by Israel to Georgia (especially the drones, which require a lot of training and support to control, program, maintain and interpret the data).
From that very same article, I would like to point out this particular quote:
Quote:
To a reporter's question about Jews who have fled the fighting and come to Israel, he said: "We have two Israeli cabinet ministers, one deals with war [Defense Minister David Kezerashvili], and the other with negotiations [State Minister for Territorial Integration Temur Yakobashvili], and that is the Israeli involvement here: Both war and peace are in the hands of Israeli Jews."
I think it is pretty safe to say that Israel plays a fairly substantial role in what is taking place in Georgia and is likely a source of many of Mikheil Saakashvili ideas.
Outside of this external influence on Georgia, be it from Israel or the United States, I have been watching some video of Saakashvili and he gives me the impression that he is a questionably unstable personality to begin with.
France and Germany have limited clout on how Russia manages political and military events in or around it's territory. Germany gets over half of its natural gas imports from Russia (Western Siberia) via pipelines. Other countries in western and central Europe also get similar portions of their energy supplies from Russia. France has a little more independence because they generate over 80 percent of their domestic electricity from nuke plants, but France imports a lot of Nat Gas from Russia too.
A few years ago, Ukraine went though a mini-revolution that tossed out disputed election results that favored a pro-Russia candidate and instead brought a new president to power that is pro EU and pro NATO. Not long after that, Russia announced a new higher price structure for Nat Gas sales to Ukraine, and Ukraine complained bitterly about those prices to no end. Not much later, gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine were shut off. Didn't take Ukraine long to agree to the new higher prices. Rest of western and central Europe is in the same boat as Ukraine. You can whine and call the bear names, but don't throw punches at the belly of the bear or the bear will strike back. Georgia was pretty dumb to punch the bear in the belly, militarily and geographically.
I'm surprised the Pres of Georgia didn't look at what happened not far away in Grozny (Chechnya) - Russia was willing to level a city in the far (from Moscow) southern reaches of it's own national territory to crush and destroy a separatist militia. Putin's strong unconditional victory over separatist armed groups in Chechnya won him big political support in nearly all parts of Russia. (Bush could only dream of such support).
Russia has a lot of security and economic interests along it's southern border region with the Caucusus area (belly of the bear). South Ossetia has been essentially adopted by Russia for the past 15 years, even though on the map it is within Georgia. The strong Russian military response to being attacked without warning in South Ossetia by Georgia's military should not come as a surprise. Not a surprise either that Russian military would go after Georgia military bases anywhere close to South Ossetia - simply making sure that Georgia's military infrastructure is crippled enough so they don't come back anytime soon to repeat the attack on South Ossetia.
Russia's oil and gas wealth has enabled their geopolitical and military strength to be re-born, and in many ways eclipse the power of the former USSR. The former USSR was a military power due to nuclear weapons, but an economic basket case. The new Russia is the energy superpower of the 21st century, and it has much of Europe feeding the wealth to them by keeping the piplines flowing. The new Russia will require a far different approach than dealing with the old USSR - problem is few of our political leaders understand the real change that has occured in Russia and think it is a "cold war" starting all over again. It's no longer about ideology - for Russia it's building more economic power and keeping NATO or any military threat (and missile defense shields) away from it's borders.
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