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Here is a photo taken of a child in Kherson, after liberation from Russian occupation. Neither he, nor his children if he ever has any, will forgive what crimes against humanity Russia has waged against his family, against his home. Probably not even his grandkids.
That's not exactly how war works, though. War is politics with other means. And the political cost to Russia has been really rather serious. They went to war with the idea that they could dictate foreign policy terms to their neighbors - thinking that they were if not a great power, then at least a regional power. And that is lost already, probably for generations. That has serious implications.
There are 22 republics in the Russian Federation, some of which have had ideas of independence in the past. Some of them are probably looking at the currently rather battered state of the Russian military and wondering if loyalty to Moscow is a winning strategy. (That's to say nothing of the fact that the majority of the cannon fodder comes from the more remote provinces. They're not dumb. They know this, and they resent it.)
And of course, to the East, is China - looking at the resource-rich, thinly populated areas right across the border...
A slice of Ukraine - and a much smaller slice than the one they officially "annexed", at that - is not going to compensate for the huge loss in men, materiel and reputation.
You can be a regional power based on cultural strength, economic strength, and military strength.
Russian culture? Pffft. Art doesn't thrive under oppressive regimes, and they cheat at sports. What they have that's worth the price of admission is decades old.
Economic strength? Turns out being based just on resource extraction - and then having an economy mainly based on "Steal everything that isn't nailed down" - doesn't lend itself very well to power projection.
And the less said about military strength, the better.
Russia has lost influence in the world, and it's not coming back any time soon.
I think you may be on to something here.
Russians athletes are well-known for cheating, and currently banned from the Olympics and other global sports competitions over continual doping. They cheat, of course, by having their athletes compete under the banner of the Russian Olympic Committee. Their judges cheat, or at least their figure-skating judges did back when I was watching. Russian teams have been banned from European soccer tournaments. Probably just as well as the security issues would be a nightmare.
Russia's economic strength remains to be seen, but things are not looking good. A lot of companies left, and the whether there are enough smart, hard-working Russians left to take over what these companies used to do remains to be seen. But even if they are successful, who buys? Iran and North Korea? India?
Russia's military strength is a horrible joke. The photos coming out of Bahkmut are heartbreaking.
As to getting even a slice of Ukraine, I'm not seeing how that happens.
War crimes are piling up, and hard to see Ukrainian soldiers standing down until they reach the Russian border.
We've all played chess against that guy. He'll get into an inextricable situation, then suddenly look you in the eye and graciously extend a hand across board, saying "Shall we call it a draw?" as if he's offering you a favor - before you get a chance to see just how badly he's messed up.
And why on earth would the war end now?
You mean, Putin and Z agree to just stand where they are forever and stop playing war?...... Nah.
Tonight there are reports of Russian equipment being moved through Meriupol to Melitopol. From Russia's view, Melitopol must be held. The road from Ukraine to Crimea goes through Melitopol and then across a fairly short bridge to Crimea.
The other side is the Kerch Bridge that we all know about and it cannot yet withstand the weight of military equipment.
Then there is a 5 mile wide path from Kherson that would be suicide if Russia tried to use it to reinforce Crimea, so if they intend to try to hold Crimea they must go through Melitopol.
Once the Ukrainians liberate Melitopol, Crimea is a done deal.
Even the Ukrainians disappointedly admit they didn't kill enough of them and most escaped. I believe they did inherit a bunch of Russian hardware though. Tough to get much of that out by civilian ferry boats or over a rickety pontoon bridge that seemed pretty banged up by artillery. Looked like mostly a single-file foot path for infantry.
I've been thinking about this ever since the post and article about how well the retreat from Kherson went well, relatively speaking.
A quick Google search confirmed that though a lot of equipment was left behind, a lot of soldiers escaped.
I wondered why. Were the Ukrainians conserving their ammunition? What?
Then it hit me.
Some years ago, at a funeral service for a sweet, kind man, his war buddies got to sharing stories about him. One has always stood out.
He used to crawl through enemy lines in the middle of the night to lay communication cables for the next day's bombardment. His guards were Ghurkas (soldiers from India who served in the British army), who would slit the throat of every other German soldier.
Why every other one? Why not all of them?
So the ones that lived would wake up, realize how close they came to death, and spread the word.
Last edited by GotHereQuickAsICould; 11-22-2022 at 06:30 AM..
Once the Ukrainians liberate Melitopol, Crimea is a done deal.
There are no done deals. The Russians held Crimea for seven years without Melitopol. They can do it again.
Crimea will be much more difficult geographically for the Ukrainians to liberate, and it remains to be seen if there is even western support for that to happen. Anyway at the current rate, it will be many years before that could even be possible.
There are no done deals. The Russians held Crimea for seven years without Melitopol. They can do it again.
Crimea will be much more difficult geographically for the Ukrainians to liberate, and it remains to be seen if there is even western support for that to happen. Anyway at the current rate, it will be many years before that could even be possible.
I think this map shows the real problem. The red and purple areas represent land that Russia currently illegally occupies. Just in Europe alone. They have more in Asia, but that is off the map. Some of this land has been illegally occupied for as long as 80 years, but most of it, more recently.
Russia has a long history of this. They invade, they negotiate, they give back 50% and they keep 50%. They invade again, they negotiate, they give back 50% and keep 50%. It keeps repeating endlessly.
I'm not sure what short of WW3 will ever stop it. Ignoring this problem for 80 years sure hasn't stopped it. It's a very successful formula for them.
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