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...............First we heard how incompetent the Russian military is, how outdated and unmaintained their Soviet era equipment is.
But yet they've been making gains, slowly and methodically............
Nope. They occupied a good 1/3rd of the country weeks after they started, but have had to settle for the sliver right next to their border.
They started the war with 10%, increased to 30% and are now down to 20%. Not very good, I'd say.
Gains are measured in how many streets were taken in cities we never heard of. But they can't keep their gains because when actual soldier show up the Ukrainians keep killing them!
Russia will lose by becoming impoverished. Like North Korea. Cuba. Venezuela.
Ukraine will fight as long as it wants to. When the war ends, it will only end for Ukraine. Russia will have to deal with sanctions for many years.
In the end the Russian army will revolt and simply walk home.
that's your twisted logic understanding of the UN's responsibility here...here's how they really feel about it...
Quote:
UN resolution against Ukraine invasion: Full text
UN General Assembly demands Russia stop its offensive in Ukraine, voting 141 to five with 35 abstentions.
Only a certified paranoid nutcase (maybe Putin qualfies?) would make that argument. Ukraine was no threat to Russia. It was not preemptive self-defense. It was an aggressive war against another country to intervene in their internal affairs and steal their land and resources.
He sounds like he knows what he's talking about... esp since he never uses any partisan language to describe Russian hardware and skill sets.
Basically Russian's warfare machine is antiquated and not as "powerful" as they like other countries to imagine.
You have problems with equipment, mapping, skilled soldiers and of course with mounting failures and a prolonged war you will have supply issues, fatigue and obviously low moral in your troops.
Putin knows he can't win the war he instigated and is getting desperate to save face. I wonder how long until his high ups turn on him and make him disappear.
On Russian state TV, State Duma Defense Committee's head Andrey Kartapolov proposed taking Ukrainian children from occupied territories and shipping them off to military boarding schools in Russia. Not one word about asking for their parents' permission or even their own wishes.
Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukraine and may be halting the Slovyansk campaign for the time being.
The Russian withdrawal of some troops from northern Donetsk Oblast will deprive the Slovyansk effort of necessary combat power, in the same way that Russian forces neglected the Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts fronts during offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast.
ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the killing of 53 Ukrainian POWs in an explosion at a Russian-controlled prison in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast on July 28.
Two US officials anonymously confirmed to Politico on August 1 that no traces of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Ukraine’s most precise artillery system, were found at the prison site.[4] The Kremlin alleges that Ukraine fired HIMARS and precision-guided rockets to kill Ukrainian POWs and deter Ukrainian defectors. Satellite and other imagery from the site indicate that the attack only damaged one building, did not collapse the walls of that building, and did not leave any shell craters in the vicinity, very strongly suggesting that the destruction of the prison was the result of either a precision strike or an internally planted incendiary or explosive.[5] One US official told Politico that “the evidence showed the attack was not conducted by Kyiv.” If Ukraine had used something other than HIMARS to conduct the strike, the attack would almost certainly have left collateral damage around the facility, including craters and other damaged buildings. Given the US assessment that HIMARS were not used in the attack, ISW assesses that Russia was responsible for this attack on Ukrainian POWs in violation of the Geneva Conventions.
Key Takeaways
Quote:
ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the July 28 attack on the Olenivka prison that killed 53 Ukrainian POWs; two anonymous US officials confirmed that there is no evidence that Ukrainian forces used US-provided HIMARS, some of the only munitions Ukraine has that are precise enough to do the kind of limited damage seen in satellite and other imagery, to strike the prison.
Russian forces are transferring elements of the Eastern Military District (EMD) from the Slovyansk area to support defensive positions along the Southern Axis.
Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations north of Slovyansk or around Siversk.
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements south and southeast of Bakhmut.
Russian proxy authorities did not claim any territorial gains near Avdiivka as Russian forces launched unsuccessful ground assaults on Avdiivka and Pisky.
Russian regional officials are reportedly failing to provide promised payments to the “Atal” Volunteer Battalion of the Republic of Chuvashia.
The Kremlin is likely prioritizing propaganda and sham referenda over the welfare of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Russian occupation forces are likely increasing efforts to deter and suppress partisan movements in occupied territories as partisan attacks on Russian officials and Ukrainian collaborators continue.
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas
Quote:
Russian occupation officials are enhancing propaganda efforts and collaborator recruitment efforts to further the façade of a popular campaign for Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories. The Russian Zaporizhia Occupation Administration head, Yevheny Balitsky, announced the establishment of ZaTV, a new “information flagship” regional television channel for Zaporizhia Oblast, on August 1.[43] Balitsky thanked local and Russian specialists for their support in establishing the station and “explaining the situation” to Zaporizhia Oblast residents. Balitsky delivered his remarks in front of a banner reading “Melitopol - Russia." Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 1 that Russian occupation officials opened a recruitment center in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast to recruit and pay collaborators to participate in pro-Russia demonstrations.[44] The GUR reported that occupation authorities are struggling to find sufficient numbers of Ukrainians willing to participate in such activities, even when offered monetary and aid incentives, and that occupation authorities are continuing to link the provision of humanitarian aid to cooperation with occupation forces, including participation in pro-Russian demonstrations. The GUR reported that the Kremlin sent Russian public relations specialists to Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast to foment pro-Russia protests and the creation of Russian propaganda. Members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party are staffing many humanitarian aid distribution stations and are likely participating in and coordinating the sham protests.
The Russian tying of humanitarian aid to pro-Kremlin demonstrations and the prioritization of propaganda before electricity both demonstrate that Russian occupation authorities are more concerned with controlling the Ukrainian information space and preparing for sham referenda than with providing basic services in occupied territories. Euromaidan Press reported on July 31 that trucks equipped with LED screens and speakers were set up to play Russian television channels in Severodnetsk, Luhansk Oblast. Most of Severodonetsk likely remains without electricity or running water.[45] The Russian Kherson Occupation Administration head, Kirill Stremousov, shared a video on July 31 depicting a United Russia representative promising to solve the concerns of Kherson residents. Stremousov said that the video demonstrated that the people of Kherson are “ready to become one big family with Russia.”[46] The increasing prevalence of United Russia members in occupied Ukrainian territories suggests that the Kremlin is focused on propaganda production not just to deter Ukrainian resistance, but also to placate the domestic Russian audience with falsified, feel-good stories about Russians providing aid to ”liberated” Ukrainians who seek to join Russia.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on August 1 that the Russian-sponsored organization “Volunteers for Russia” will take the lead on organizing the sham annexation referendum in occupied Kherson Oblast under the supervision of Russian forces.[47] The SBU reported that the group plans to disperse throughout the oblast to “imitate local support for the occupiers” and to create “staged stories” for Russian television audiences. The SBU reported that Russian collaborators are telling their handlers that Kherson residents are uncooperative and believe that Ukrainian forces will soon liberate the oblast.
Separately, Russian occupation forces are likely increasing their efforts to deter and suppress partisan movements in occupied Ukrainian territories as popular demonstrations and partisan attacks on Russian officials, Ukrainian collaborators, and militarily valuable targets continue. A partisan IED targeted the car of Ukrainian collaborator and local mobster Vitaly Efimenko in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast on July 30, landing him in the hospital.[48] Partisans also reportedly set fire to a factory in Mariupol on July 31.[49] The advisor to the Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushenko, claimed on August 1 that Mariupol residents protested against occupation efforts to demolish damaged homes in the city and that Russian forces had to intervene to protect Russian occupation mayor of Mariupol, Konstantin Ivashchenko, from angry protestors.[50] Andryushenko claimed that Ivashchenko’s failures to pacify the remaining population are driving rifts in the occupation administration and could lead to Ivashchenko’s ouster. If so, Ivashchenko and other occupation authorities are likely incentivized to authorize increasingly draconian measures to repress partisan and anti-Russia activity and defend their positions.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on August 1 that occupation forces are intensifying repressive actions in response to an increase in successful partisan activity.[51] Those actions include wearing civilian clothes and driving cars with Ukrainian plates during raids, using drones to monitor mass gathering places like markets and public squares, and evicting Ukrainians from areas surrounding possible partisan targets. The Center reported that Russian forces evicted all residents who lived within a 400-meter radius of the railway station in Brylivka, Kherson Oblast so locals could not inform partisans of shipments of military equipment. The Center also reported that Russian occupation forces are intensifying checks of residents’ homes, smartphones, computers, and personal documents and are searching houses to seize any weaponry. Intensifying measures are likely having limited effects due to popular support for partisan activities.
But because Russian leadership is corrupt down to its marrow, it became a kleptocracy instead, basically what would happen if the Mafia ran a country.
The corruption and resulting economic malaise were inevitable. It's been that way for 500 years. It's a national pastime, to wax cynical about the inevitability of bungling and failure, sometimes leavened by sheer cruelty. If there's any sense to the epigram that some nations a predestined to fail, Russia would be Exhibit #1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by illtaketwoplease
What does an invading force do when it wants to win a war and take over a country ? Research that and get back to us...
They begin by taking out the defenders’ radar, early-warning systems, command-control-communications systems and principal air-to-ground threats. That allows invading aircraft to enter with overwhelming force, establishing air superiority. No air superiority means no successful invasion… so that has to come first. Then, degrade the defenders’ own air power (aircraft, missiles, drones, fuel dumps, runways, …) and achieve air dominance. Along the way, aim for high-value targets with precision strikes. And only then, commence the ground-invasion.
Nope. They occupied a good 1/3rd of the country weeks after they started, but have had to settle for the sliver right next to their border.
They started the war with 10%, increased to 30% and are now down to 20%. Not very good, I'd say.
Gains are measured in how many streets were taken in cities we never heard of. But they can't keep their gains because when actual soldier show up the Ukrainians keep killing them!
Russia will lose by becoming impoverished. Like North Korea. Cuba. Venezuela.
Ukraine will fight as long as it wants to. When the war ends, it will only end for Ukraine. Russia will have to deal with sanctions for many years.
In the end the Russian army will revolt and simply walk home.
Where are you getting your news from?
Russia has taken nearly all of Donbas. They have all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine.
How will they be impoverished? They are nearly self-sufficient other than in the non-tech space. They are trading commodities to the rest of the non-US aligned world for the items they cannot produce.
China and Russia alone can provide each other with whatever they lack themselves.
Seriously...
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