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It may not even be necessary for Ukraine to launch an honest-to-God thunderous offensive.
It looks like the Russian army is dissolving at the mere thought of one.
Interesting if true. Worth recalling that the Kinzhal was supposed to be the unstoppable carrier killer missile, a weapon designed for high-value strategic targets. Now they're fired at power transformer stations.
Also worth recalling that one side only had an unstoppable missile system in 1944. Didn't win the war.
Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows Russian forces fleeing Ukrainian artillery fire on the southern bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir, about 4km northwest of Bakhmut. This footage visually confirms claims made by a number of Russian milbloggers that Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Bakhmut in the area between Bohdanivka and Berkhivka. One Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) lost their positions in the area between Hryhorivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka (about 6km northwest of Bakhmut). Several Russian sources warned that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to encircle the Wagner Group within Bakhmut. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Priogozhin emphasized that Ukrainian forces are approaching Berkhivka and claimed that Ukraine now holds positions within 500m of Bakhmut’s northwestern city limits. Russian milbloggers additionally reported that Ukrainian troops are counterattacking towards Khromove (3km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut). One Russian milblogger claimed that the situation southwest of Bakhmut near Mayorsk has stabilized following Ukrainian attacks on positions of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) rejected claims made by other Russian sources regarding Ukrainian advances and claimed instead that elements of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Luhansk People’s Republic) and 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) repelled all attacks in the Berkhivka area â€taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhivske Reservoir.â€
It may not even be necessary for Ukraine to launch an honest-to-God thunderous offensive.
It looks like the Russian army is dissolving at the mere thought of one.
Maybe. But it could also be a trap. Hopefully their drones and US satellites are giving them enough info not to fall into one.
BRICS represents 40% of the population of this planet. I think it is a mistake to underestimate what it might become. Not now, not next year, but 10-20 years down the road. Ties are being formed and I think trade connections will shift in the coming years.
Western countries are beginning to do the same, trying to shift supply chains to friendly countries.
A tight common currency is difficult to develop even among far more economically stable countries. The Euro had a rough time of it early on and assorted debt crises in places like Greece and Italy had many people wondering if the euro could survive that.
The most stable of the BRICs is China but there’s long been distrust of China’s central bank manipulating the Yuan in order to maintain a favorable exchange rate for export purposes.
The US dollar is just too historically useful in too many places for it to get dumped quickly as the world’s reserve currency. And those that don’t like the USD already have nice stable and predictable options in the euro and to some degree the Swiss franc.
The fact that there would be one, yes. The timing, no. Ukrainian OPSEC has been pretty impressive, actually.
I thought Bahkmut and Luhansk was their counteroffensive? Admittedly, Luhansk was blink-and-you'll-miss-it between "jumping off" and "bogging down".
There has been talk, accurate or not about the timing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive by the Ukrainians for months now. It was going to start within weeks and then got postponed, and then got postponed again. Of course, there was no precise time given when it would happen, but general time-frames were given nevertheless.
Bakhmut and Luhansk were not real offensives since they involved only a tiny fraction of the total Russian forces available. Bakhmut is a "tar baby" designed by the Russians to have Ukrainian troops throw themselves into that city and keep getting eliminated by Russian artillery and missiles.
There are advantages to an offensive in the south as Denys says. It would shorten defense lines while lengthening Russian lines in Crimea.
An offensive in Luhansk would increase the lines Ukraine would have to defend.
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