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As for Ethiopia, they’re just not happy with the western world because said western world is calling them out over their current attempts at Tigray genocide
We all know that Russia is pro-genocide so that plays a role in them getting along fine right now.
AFU had around 6km success north east of Bakhmut and managed to regain control over the Chasiv Yar arterial.
At the same time Wagner yesterday made a major breakthrough in Bakhmut and are now 400 m away from the said arterial INSIDE the city.
If they manage to do today, what they did yesterday and, break through those 400 m of the 9 story buildings, arterial will be severed INSIDE the city, making AFU maneuvering in Bakhmut impossible and their days counted. No supplies, pretty much, trapped inside those buildings, easy pray for artillery and gliding bombs.
The entire success is now hung on resilience of the regular RAF north east of Wagners.
Otherwise, nothing else worth mentioning happened. Well, deep Ukrainian territory missiles attacks, all the way into the L'viv region. Massive.
2 Russian helicopters and 2 jets were successfully demilitarized and denazified in Bryansk. The SMO continues according to plan. Our goals will be achieved. We wish further fruitful work in this sphere. Multipolar problems require multipolar solutions.
I’m seeing multiple unconfirmed reports about 2 jets and 2 helicopters being shot down today over the Bryanst region of Russia. Speculation leans towards friendly fire. Here’s one tweet about it:
<<In the Bryansk region today, there are serious losses in aviation - 1 Su-34 and 2 Mi-8. Plus one more side (aircraft) that has not yet been installed (reported), an Su-34 or Su-35. The pilots are dead.>>
Costly provocation if that's what it is and I am not buying the idea of partisans... Patriot is within range technically but that is not realistic. All shot down at the same time so that is a key factor here.
Right now it looks like friendly fire caused by some sort of alert possibly due to Ukrainian drones or other "aircraft" entering Russian airspace.
Russian SAM crews have never been much for target identification. But they did at least hit something, so...
There has been recent evidence of decoys being used. These systems can digitally capture radar signals, manipulate them and send them back in real-time. They can make themselves look like anything they want, a group of b-52’s, a single plane at a different location and speed, etc. basically they can paint any radar picture they want. I wonder if they played a role here.
Another possibility is that these forces do not exist as you think they do.
Why is there this idea that the Russians are still holding back?
What happened to the million man army that supposedly existed before the invasion? And now they created 500,000 more?
Someone is not counting correctly.
From my research Russia could only field about 250,000 total boots on the ground at the start of the war. They committed around 75% into Ukraine at the start of the invasion. That force is now completely gone.
Rather than thinking this is some kind of sophisticated strategy, it could simply be that Russia cannot muster what is needed.
Of course these Russian forces exist. They are just not being used. There had even been a mobilization a few months ago that added even more.
If Russia had fielded 250,000 total boots on the ground at the start of the war as you had said (75 percent of total forces) and now that force is completely gone, why are the pitiful remnants of the Russian forces still in Ukraine? Ukrainian forces should have completely driven them out, supplied as they are and propped up by the West. Why are Russian forces still making progress in Ukraine and the Ukrainian forces cannot stop them, a pitiful Russian shadow army? This reasoning simply doesn't make sense.
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