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Could be ...sounds plausible ....isn't Belarus a small country...population about 10 million ...if my
memory is correct....not sure how powerful their military is ...sounds like you or your friend would know...
Ukraine should always keep an eye open for such a threat...I assume they are.
They've got a tiny, poorly supplied military. If Putin tries to overthrow Lukashenko for someone who will put Belorussian troops in the war, Putin is likely to have to send troops to Minsk to put down a rebellion there.
Russia doesn't seem to have developed a competent team of leaders. Don't know what kind of plan they could possibly have that is any better than what they have tried already.
Is it possible the in the West we just do not understand cimplexity of their leadeship that may be directed against our goals but two steps ahead? They, just like here, have a lot of selfish leaders...
Actually, in spite of Russia being an attack danger to the people of Ukraine, I think Russia has pulled-back from some lines while declaring others, not completely held, as strategically important. Cease-fire might just involve Ukraine not attacking Russian positions.
Kissinger wants pre-invasion positions of Russia. That's certainly Crimea but they also had significant logistical support of other areas. And some of those supported areas where bombed by Ukraine. Russia complained that the Minsk Agreement was not held-to. Pre-invasion positions of Russia might include the areas of concern to the Minsk Agreement
.
Is it possibke the in the West we just do nit understand cimplexity od their peadeship that may be directed against our goals but two steps ahead? They, just like hear, have a lot of selfish leaders...
So, they are playing 3d chess with us, and we are only playing 1d?
I don't think so.
The Russian leadership is very bright, they stole the assets of an entire country. One has to have some real balls to try that and get away with it. People like that should expect to be lined up against a wall and dispatched, but this nervy bunch got away with it.
Russia is a kleptocracy, the entire structure is based upon a pyramid of theft and lies.
Unfortunately, that sort of endemic corruption has seeped into all levels of society and from top to bottom of the military. They are so corrupt they are rotten to the very core. Apparently the promotional process is as corrupt as everything else.
It's not like the Peter Principle, which states that people tend to be promoted to a level just above their competence.
It's the Ivan Principle, which states that people tend to be promoted to the level of their buying and networking power.
That doesn't mean that the most corrupt are the most incompetent, it is entirely possible that the most corrupt could even be brilliant military geniuses!
But it's not at all likely, and judging from their performance thus far they are not geniuses. They will blunder on until they come finally to the last poor dead conscript and have run out of options.
Belarus border with Ukraine is 1000 miles long. It just gives Russia more places from which to cross the border and attack.
But WW2 was long ago. Nowadays we can all see where the army is. There will be no such thing as a surprise attack.
Russia may be able to mobilize another 500,000 men, or whatever. But they can't train them and can't equip them.
So, they are playing 3d chess with us, and we are only playing 1d?
I don't think so.
The Russian leadership is very bright, they stole the assets of an entire country. One has to have some real balls to try that and get away with it. People like that should expect to be lined up against a wall and dispatched, but this nervy bunch got away with it.
Russia is a kleptocracy, the entire structure is based upon a pyramid of theft and lies.
Unfortunately, that sort of endemic corruption has seeped into all levels of society and from top to bottom of the military. They are so corrupt they are rotten to the very core. Apparently the promotional process is as corrupt as everything else.
It's not like the Peter Principle, which states that people tend to be promoted to a level just above their competence.
It's the Ivan Principle, which states that people tend to be promoted to the level of their buying and networking power.
That doesn't mean that the most corrupt are the most incompetent, it is entirely possible that the most corrupt could even be brilliant military geniuses!
But it's not at all likely, and judging from their performance thus far they are not geniuses. They will blunder on until they come finally to the last poor dead conscript and have run out of options.
Problem that Russia plays one- d that the know, we play 3-d we pretend to know hiw while really playing one-d too. We can not stop Russia supplying tanks wuthout maintance and know how bases, for example. Russians are systematic, West behaves like Tatar Horde in a plunder war, we can not win, only if we do it long enough to create a color revolution in Russia, but they know this.
Belarus border with Ukraine is 1000 miles long. It just gives Russia more places from which to cross the border and attack.
But WW2 was long ago. Nowadays we can all see where the army is. There will be no such thing as a surprise attack.
Russia may be able to mobilize another 500,000 men, or whatever. But they can't train them and can't equip them.
We have heard that Russia is running out of everything..
They can mobilize 3- 5 MM dependig on pie topping and can equip them while West scramble for 100 used tanks.
We have heard that Russia is running out of everything..
They can mobilize 3- 5 MM dependig on pie topping and can equip them while West scramble for 100 used tanks.
Of course they can. But they will have no future. I guess if you're Putin and you want to sell a land grab as an existential threat, you don't need a future.
You should take a look at this Youtube channel called 1420 and see the general hopelessness average Russians have for their country's future.
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