[debbie at bouontiful]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

One of the few things I dislike about Oklahoma... a lack of multiple feet of snow and 10 below!!

I feel the same way.

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

More to follow.. to be continued.

You tease! We want more snowglobe weather!

I mean some of us do!

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

You tease! We want more snowglobe weather!

I mean some of us do!

Well, later today and tonight is what I think will be winter's last hurrah (unless one vigorously prays for more snow!) ... and based on the latest data, most of us will see around 1-3 inches of snow and sleet with the system moving in today. Locally higher amounts are possible, but overall, this event will be far from what has happened this time of year in the past.

Now.. unto the weeks ahead. Starting Friday.. a nice warm up ensues with bountiful amounts of sunshine with moderately above normal temperatures. This should last at least through about Thursday/Friday of next week.

What happens after that has put me in a quandary of question marks as one reliable long term model (the European model) suggests the unseasonably mild tranquil pattern will last into the following weekend. The GFS on the other hand plunges us into an unsettled period commencing the following weekend along with more anomalous cold .... and even more frozen precipitation possible!. So if you are a praying person, pray hard.. it may work!

My thoughts on this: I do think we will be going into a wetter pattern starting around the 15th. I think potentially our first severe weather scenario may unfold close to that date as we may indeed settle into a stormier pattern. I think what the long range models are hinting at is something to watch in terms of more snow/ice for at least parts of Oklahoma, but I give this around a 25% chance of this happening. I am more confident however that we will see at least two good precipitation events that will yield at up to one, even two inch amounts of rain each, most likely anywhere in the state with the exception of the panhandle.

Further ahead, toward the last week or so of March and thru April and May: I still am on board with brief but strong shots of arctic/polar air masses penetrating into Oklahoma that may give us some unseasonably late frosts and light freezes. This could occur as late as April 10th or so, then we seriously get into spring time temperature wise. As for rainfall: overall, close to normal for March and April, and possibly below normal for May. While other climatologists that study long term weather trends (and who has a degree in meteorology and I do not) think we may have an above normal frequency for severe weather events, especially in April and early May... I think our severe weather season will be below normal in terms of tornadoes. Keep in mind that below normal DOES NOT mean NO tornadoes, but I think it will be below normal overall this spring. My reasoning behind this; a continuation of strongly above normal water temperatures off of the west coast of the US, and an unusually low snow pack in the Rocky Mountains (however that has been quickly catching up lately). The sea surface anomalies though I think is a catalyst for my reasonings in my forecast along with what may be an overall Northwest flow pattern to our upper level jet stream that more often than not will be configured over our region. That flow pattern is not conducive to severe weather outbreaks for Oklahoma, although large hail events can be.

Temperature wise for later April/May: some anomalous heat is possible that could last for 3 to 5 days at a stretch during this period that could be punctuated by periods of temperatures that are moderately below normal. So overall, close to seasonal norms for this period.

And even further down the road.. the warmer than normal ocean temperatures off the west coast may be part of the reason for what may be a hotter than normal summer.. and potentially lengthy periods of little if any rainfall. Also, moisture deficits still plague the southern high plains into southwest Oklahoma can contribute to excessive heat and dryness if rainfall this spring remains below normal. HOWEVER, one glimmer of hope. A computer model that has captured my attention that has not been far off the last two summers.. is predicting a slightly cooler and slightly wetter outlook for the summer here in Oklahoma. Oh, how I want to believe that!!!... I do expect a return to an overall La Nina pattern commencing in the fall and may last through 2016. This normally brings drier than normal weather to Oklahoma.

More to come as conditions and time warrant. Thanks again for keeping this thread alive. All input is welcomed. Let us know what's happening around where you live. All the best!!

[_redbird_]

I hope everyone stays off the roads unless they absolutely need to be out there. Our rain started last night and turned to sleet here in the past hour or so. The temps are dropping below freezing making the roads slick.

Be safe!

[educator1953]

Here in Duncan, it's wet and the wind is blowing like crazy. I don't see any sleet or freezing rain here at my house yet.

My husband is out on the road going to his dentist appointment. He called and said the roads are still fine for now.

I'm just sitting here watching the wind blow through the bare branches of our many trees. I have a roast cooking for dinner. I started it earlier this morning so if the power goes out later due to the predicted ice it should be cooked by then. Our area is known to have power outages even in good weather.

I remember the huge ice storm we had a few years ago. I know this one won't be as bad, but I like to be prepared just in case. That last ice storm was horrible. We learned many lessons from it.

[rockyinyourradio]

The possibility of a brief return to winter weather for Oklahoma is dwindling for the following weekend leading me to believe we are done with winter for all but maybe the far northwest and the panhandle. Good chance of rain for the southeast half of Oklahoma now from a system coming up from Texas for Sunday and Monday coming up. Mild and dry weather commences afterwards and should last through most of the following week afterwards. A cool down still is expected thereafter maybe as early as the 14th to 16th or so, but not so much where wintry precip could occur. Still looking at a more unsettled pattern to close out the month.. from around the 20th to 31rst.

[_redbird_]

Having 68 degrees F. the day after snowfall is one of the reasons I love okie winters. We never get slammed like the northeast U.S.

I like this season of "no bugs". Now I only have about 7 months to wait until next winter.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

Having 68 degrees F. the day after snowfall is one of the reasons I love okie winters. We never get slammed like the northeast U.S.

I like this season of "no bugs". Now I only have about 7 months to wait until next winter.

Disadvantage of snow and then 70F is immediate loss of soil moisture and higher level of evaporation. In areas that do receive more snow during Winter, the moisture gets absorbed into the soil at slower rates dependent on temperature.
Hopefully the pattern becomes more favorable for precipitation in Oklahoma, latest drought monitor indicates drought conditions presently.

[rockyinyourradio]

Well, March is off to a good start for rainfall, especially across the eastern half of the state below I-44. I think by the end of next weekend, we could see a generous amount of rain if models keep up with what it's forecasting. As of now, the period from Wednesday the 18th thru Sunday the 22nd may indeed be a wet one. Places like McAlester, Hugo and Idabel could see up to 3 inches with a general 1-2 inches a good bet.

An overall more active pattern is still expected for the rest of the month thereafter with continued diminishing chances for any winter like weather, but still some frosts are a good possibility into early April as I still believe we may be subject to some late season polar outbreaks that could clip our area. Stay tuned and have a great weekend.

[_redbird_]

We are in the season of "near perfect" weather.

I love the spring and fall temps. The frogs are in frog heaven!