[StillwaterTownie]

This one for Stillwater shows 73 on Wednesday, thunderstorms likely, with a low of 55 later that morning! Stillwater Five Day Weather Forecast

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

Rocky, I read in the paper where we will have a high temperature of 74 degrees F. on Wednesday, 8/17/15.

No way! In August? I cannot believe that. But I will be loving it!!!

Sorry it took me awhile to respond..just saw this. Latest data has both OKC and Stillwater not even hitting 70F on Wednesday. Indeed, that's unusual but not unheard of for this time of year. This will be a brief but most welcome respite between now and the next week before a return to more seasonal heat to close out the month. Rainfall wise, at least one half inch for most places, but some area's may pick up around 2 inches in some heavier thunderstorms this evening into Wednesday.

When I have more time, been trying to piece together my fall and winter forecast. I'll tell you this, we're in uncharted territory in regards to the el nino and the correlation with the above normal water temperatures across the entire eastern Pacific.. I'll also give you a sneak peak into next summer's forecast and I'll give you a hint, it may be nothing like the summer we've had this year. Until then...

[_redbird_]

A north wind is always welcome this time of year.

[eddie gein]

This is another thing that drives me nuts about the malcontents on this board. This summer we haven't had more than 10-12 days that have been truly uncomfortable. And most (not all) summers we get these occasional breaks from the heat. With the exception of California, most places that are more temperate in the winter than Oklahoma don't get these breaks. Most of the places that are more temperate in the summers, don't get the number of mild winter days that we get most winters.

Our little friend who moved to Phoenix got 107 today.

[teakboat]

Yes, it is funny to hear people complain about the heat, it has been a very mild summer actually compared to many. Last year was not bad either aside from a few periods. Strange stretches of cool both years. I really think it is generally due to the solar grand minimum we have been gradually entering since the end of solar cycle 23. Also, the Northern Atlantic has gone more or less cold, and the Pacific is getting ready to shed off its vast heat reserves over the next several months.

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by teakboat

Yes, it is funny to hear people complain about the heat, it has been a very mild summer actually compared to many. Last year was not bad either aside from a few periods. Strange stretches of cool both years. I really think it is generally due to the solar grand minimum we have been gradually entering since the end of solar cycle 23. Also, the Northern Atlantic has gone more or less cold, and the Pacific is getting ready to shed off its vast heat reserves over the next several months.

But the heat index got up to around 115-120 last week. That is high even for summer. So no wonder people thought they had something to complain about.

[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by StillwaterTownie

But the heat index got up to around 115-120 last week. That is high even for summer. So no wonder people thought they had something to complain about.

Where I lived in California, the 'Inland Empire' area which is a large inland valley bordering and including desert, that was summer. Sometimes it wasn't an index, but actually was 110 or higher. Add smog and you had a mess. After it had been mostly continuously hot for months, you get somewhat used to it, along with anyplace air conditioned being popular. But when early on when it wasn't supposed to be that hot it just zapped you.

One major reason I moved was to get away from an inland socal summer. Since I've lived here, seven years, there's only been a few which had times equal to that. I was going for someplace not as hot in summer and not too much colder in winter. Interestingly, the winter temps, even when they get way down there, are a lot easier to deal with still than 100 plus with humidity. You can stack on layers, but even shorts and a tank top don't help when it really hot.

[rockyinyourradio]

Time to resurrect this thread out of the grave! A brief update on upcoming weather: I'm becoming reasonably confident that commencing the period around Thanksgiving and lasting into the first week of December, a cold and potentially stormy period is likely for Oklahoma. The chances are highest that we'll see some truly wintry type temperatures that should focus around the last couple of days of the month onward to roughly December 3rd-5th time frame. Storm systems that interact with this pipeline of arctic air that could have a Siberian connection where the snowpack is already at near record levels for this time of year; could give us a potential snow/ice event to accompany this. The timing of the snow and ice is more of a question and just how much arctic air that could be involved with this upcoming system. Current model runs suggest Thanksgiving into the weekend after, could be pretty wet.. maybe excessively so, especially the eastern third of the state. It will be interesting to watch future models to see how those trends go and if it becomes cold enough for some of that rain to transition into freezing rain and sleet.

Afterwards, my guess from around December 7th or so... temperatures will moderate and infact could become quite mild. Temperatures should remain mild at times that will be punctuated by brief incursions of polar air but nothing too extreme. I'm expecting the southern jet stream to become more active with occasional bouts of precipitation that should remain more liquid than frozen. There is a reasonably good chance that once this upcoming arctic siege has modified and moved off to the east.. most of the USA will experience near normal to possibly excessively above normal temperatures.. especially east of the Rocky Mountains and roughly north of I-40. Depending on how active the southern jet stream becomes, area's below I-40 that get affected by storm systems may have slightly below normal temperatures.

Beyond December and for the rest of the winter.. January could experience close to normal temperatures with near normal moisture, February and March on the other hand may be colder and stormier than normal.

Into the spring and summer of 2016: Possibly a stormy start to spring followed by a drier end with above normal temperatures. Summer of 2016? as of now..I give it about a 60% chance of a hotter and drier than normal summer, infact, we may be experiencing severe to even exceptional drought conditions by late summer and fall.. on this part of the forecast, I REALLY HOPE I'm wrong. However studies of past years with similar patterns (97-98 come's to mind), I may be on target. Remember the summer of 1998?

More soon.. let's keep this going folks! Appreciate all your input.

[rockyinyourradio]

For the few that are interested, big changes on the way for the Sooner State. Beginning Saturday the 26th, culminating on Sunday into Monday morning the 28th.. epic, record setting rainfall across the southeast third of the state and possibly, near record amounts of snow to the northwest of a Cordell, Watonga, Alva line.

My current thinking is this: snowfall amounts between Sunday morning thru Monday: Woodward/Ft. Supply, 12-16" Clinton, 6-10" OKC, 2-5" Stillwater, 2-5" Tulsa, maybe up to 2" Lawton area 1-4".

Rainfall: Heavener/Poteau/Talihina, 6-10", up to 12" on the higher elevations of Talihina Skyline Drive. McAlester, 4-7" Tulsa area, 3-5" OKC, 2-4".

Winds will be a SERIOUS factor with this.. gusts could approach 70mph in western and NW Okla. on Sunday. Whiteouts/blizzard conditions almost a certainty even with only a few inches of snow.. just imagine those winds with a foot of snow!!! Not out of the question. The snow will be wet and a transition zone of sleet/freezing rain is likely early to mid Sunday across west central Okla. Depending on how fast this system moves, depends on how long your in the transition zone. A narrow corridor of substantial ice/sleet accumulation is possible. Currently, I think the greatest transition zone for mixed precip. will be from Blackwell/Ponca City to the OKC metro/Chickasha to Lawton. Couple this with very gusty winds... not a good scenario my friends. I DO NOT see this as being another major ice event but locally within the transition zone from rain to snow, up to 1/3rd inch of ice is possible.. hopefully sleet will be more predominate in the aforementioned area's. Flooding in SE OK. will be near HISTORIC!! Be aware of this and take precautions.

It's only Wednesday and the storm is not suppose to hit until Saturday and last until Monday.. the models WILL change some as this event draws near. Should also mention that before the front moves through and the winter games shift into full gear, there will be a threat of severe weather across the eastern 2/3rds of the state. All severe modes are possible.. including a tornado or two.

I will do my best to post an update on Friday/Saturday. Merry Christmas everyone and thanks for taking time to read this.. be safe.

[StillwaterTownie]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:


Message summary: ...strong storm system to impact portions of oklahoma and western north texas this weekend...
It will not be a white christmas for oklahoma and western north texas but it could be a white after christmas weekend for some. A strong storm system is expected to approach and move across the southern plains affecting the area late this week... Through the weekend into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will begin friday night across portions of oklahoma and western north texas. Precipitation chances will then increase across the area over the weekend. Rain will initially be the precipitation type friday night and during the day on saturday. Cooler air will move into the region behind a cold front that moves across the area saturday and cold air aloft associated with the approaching upper low could lead to a transition to winter precipitation for some saturday night. Winter precipitation will then remain possible through monday across portions of the area. The best chance for winter precipitation...
Most likely snow... Will be in parts of northwest oklahoma with a wintry mix possible across north central... And parts of central and western oklahoma... And western north texas. Several inches of snow accumulation will be possible in parts of the area by monday. Strong northerly winds will likely occur behind the front this weekend which combined with the winter precipitation could lead to reduced visibilities in some areas this weekend. In addition to the winter precipitation... Several inches of rain will be possible friday night through monday... Especially across portions of south central and southeast oklahoma. This heavy rain could lead to flooding in some areas. There are still a number of uncertainties with this storm system such as the timing... Path that the system travels... And how much cold air will be in the area. These factors will all have an impact on what kind of winter precipitation occurs... Where it will occur... And how much winter precipitation the area will receive. However... Travel conditions could be impacted so if you plan on traveling friday night through monday check the forecast often for the latest updates... Especially closer to the weekend when the details about this storm system should become more clear.