[rockyinyourradio]

Heads up for most of us in the northwest 2/3rds of the state for what may be a wild ride for severe weather commencing the middle of this afternoon into this evening. If I would pick a place to be ground zero for highest probabilities to experience severe storms.. it would be from around Cache, OK. to Anadarko, on up to the OKC area between 5pm until 9pm. All modes of severe weather likely including at least a couple of long tracked tornadoes. Currently as of this writing.. storms are already firing in the eastern TX. Panhandle and will move east and northeast into NW Okla. BUT, is expected to slowly weaken. Then, the main energy moves out this afternoon and IF we can get a few hours of at least partial sunshine this afternoon across central and southwest Okla. .. it's "Katie bar the door" time. However, if we stay mostly cloudy in the aforementioned area's, then the severe weather threat will be somewhat mitigated but still will be formidable. A tornado watch will be almost certainly warranted for this afternoon and this evening, regardless how much clearing occurs. So be weather aware!!

Further ahead: We are in for an overall wet pattern from now into the first few days of June.. and maybe beyond that, but climatologically, we do normally start to dry out some by mid June and I think this is still no exception. However, some of the long term models suggest we may be in a cooler and moderately wetter than normal pattern that could last until mid June, not sure how much I buy into that, but it's something I'm paying close attention to. I am very confident though that Oklahoma City will establish an all time record monthly rainfall for not only May, but for any month since records have been kept going back over 110 years.

For the summer in general; Still my thinking is slightly above normal temperatures, but not by much and normal rainfall overall. I do think that early in summer (June) will feature excessive humidity with some days having near 80 degree dewpoints. Couple that with mid 90 degree temps. .. the misery index will be stratospheric, at least with yours truly here who deplores such conditions.

One thing I think we won't be dealing with in the near future is any extended periods of dryness that would propel us back into extreme drought. With a resurgence in el nino conditions, my thinking is we will be enjoying a bountiful year of rainfall, especially in the fall, but as is always the case.. this is Oklahoma.. the land of weather extremes. I anticipate after a wet fall and a possibly wet and chilly winter to come, the el nino will fade, we will also eventually go back into a negative Pacific decadal oscillation phase (after a brief but strong positive anomaly like what is being experienced now).. and we may return into a drought like pattern starting in the summer of 2016. That however leaves room for much speculation and change. More soon.. again keep weather aware, not just today, but later next week as well. All the best and stay safe.

[_redbird_]

I love this weather, Rocky! Our lawn is loving it too! Are we going to hit 100 inches?



https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/we...rainfall_table

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

I love this weather, Rocky! Our lawn is loving it too! Are we going to hit 100 inches?

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/we...rainfall_table

Redbird.. The day any location, even in southeast OK. hits 100 inches for a year.. then maybe we can blame global warming. Looking at the latest data.. area's south of I-40 and east of I-35 may take in an additional 3-5 more inches of rain between now and the end of the month. Becoming more confident that we transition into a more summery pattern after around June 5th or so but, with all the incredible ground moisture, that can go a long way to induce more precipitation. As stated in my last post, we will be in a sauna with unusually excessive humidity, especially where rainfall has been the heaviest as we head through June into July, but should keep the temperatures in check.

[rockyinyourradio]

0.89 here at the farm 5 miles NW of Piedmont thru 7am this morning. This brings the total to 7.74 for the month. I heard that up to 6 inches fell yesterday east of Sulphur, OK. So my prediction of 3-5 inches of rain between now and month's end has already occurred. Fascinating pattern we're in. Looks like more rain this weekend put severe weather chances are minimal but definitely not non existent. Still thinking this excessively wet pattern will at least be tempered by high pressure building in later next week, but rain chances still will be there. More info when time warrants. Meanwhile, what is happening in your corner of the state?

[Johnhw2]

Lacke texoma has gone from a few feet below full to almost 20 feet above it in a matter of maybe a month. Prolific rainfall along the red river in central southeastern Oklahoma lately.i know since this benefits texoma it's a less important Oklahoma story. But durant has had incredible rainfall the past month.

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by Johnhw2

Lacke texoma has gone from a few feet below full to almost 20 feet above it in a matter of maybe a month. Prolific rainfall along the red river in central southeastern Oklahoma lately.i know since this benefits texoma it's a less important Oklahoma story. But durant has had incredible rainfall the past month.

Tom Steed reservoir, where I get my rural water, has gone from ~17% capacity to 63% as of today, and last night's rain should add more as it gets out of the watershed. That kind of rainfall is the proverbial double-edged sword, as the ground down here is saturated and can't accept much more. Also means the mosquitoes are going to quite the problem (they already are) in June.

My rain gauge at home has tallied a total of 13.11" (+/- 5%) since May 1st. A lot down by Cookietown last night, 8+ inches in one day, according to the Wichita Falls station.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by SluggoF16

Tom Steed reservoir, where I get my rural water, has gone from ~17% capacity to 63% as of today, and last night's rain should add more as it gets out of the watershed. That kind of rainfall is the proverbial double-edged sword, as the ground down here is saturated and can't accept much more. Also means the mosquitoes are going to quite the problem (they already are) in June.

My rain gauge at home has tallied a total of 13.11" (+/- 5%) since May 1st. A lot down by Cookietown last night, 8+ inches in one day, according to the Wichita Falls station.

Thanks for posting this SluggoF16. Tom Steed Lake is one of my favourite places to go but I haven't been back down there since before the drought worsen. I've seen pictures though when it was at it's lowest.. really sad, but I'm encouraged that the levels are rising. Looking at the latest data, don't expect a decent respite from this pattern until possibly the first few days of June ... if then.

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by SluggoF16

Tom Steed reservoir, where I get my rural water, has gone from ~17% capacity to 63% as of today, and last night's rain should add more as it gets out of the watershed. That kind of rainfall is the proverbial double-edged sword, as the ground down here is saturated and can't accept much more. Also means the mosquitoes are going to quite the problem (they already are) in June.

My rain gauge at home has tallied a total of 13.11" (+/- 5%) since May 1st. A lot down by Cookietown last night, 8+ inches in one day, according to the Wichita Falls station.

In Stillwater, where it gets bypassed by a lot of wet weather, my rain gauge has only had 5.86" for May. But enough so that Boomer Lake in Stillwater appears to be less than 6 inches below the spillway. I don't think it went over the spillway after the last drought was broken in 2013, but it may do so soon. There's less to make up with this drought than from the previous one, which was quite an unforgettable record breaking skorcher. Of bigger significance is Lake Blackwell just to the west of Stillwater, but don't know how it's doing, but is surely well up. It's where OSU gets its water.

[SluggoF16]

All of SW OK's reservoirs should be at or over 100% capacity by tomorrow. After last night's 1.43", I'm at 17.11 for the month (+/- 5%), and where I live was relatively dry. Very noticeable warm front yesterday afternoon. Lots of road closures. Anyone got a few hundred cords of gopher wood, might need to build an ark soon.

[Goodpasture]