[debbie at bouontiful]

I hope not! It is 48 degrees today here in Eastern OK. I pray we get a decent winter and where is the rain?

[rockyinyourradio]

I thought this thread had died.. glad to see a little interest. I'm expecting a very warm start to December but a possible (and I mean, possible) pattern change after about Dec. 10th or so. Potentially a modified arctic outbreak may influence our state by that date and the possibility exists that a colder than normal period may ensue for the last half of the month. Depending on how much snowcover there is north of us will dictate how cold it may get. As of now, I think we'll be on the edge of the cold wave if it does materialize with the greatest anomalies across the Great Lakes and the corn belt. Unfortunately, precipitation amounts will be scant at best here in Okla. and across the rest of the southern plains for at least the next two weeks and likely alot longer.

Further ahead, I think this winter will be characterized by much drier than normal conditions with unusually wide swings in temperatures. I think we'll see at least a couple of significant incursions of polar and modified arctic air masses where temperatures for periods of up to 3-4 days could range up to 20 degrees below average but will rebound just as quickly to 20 to 30 degrees above average. This pattern is a classic drought cycle that Oklahoma goes through every 20-30 years, unfortunately of which we are in the middle of. As for the moisture, it's highly likely we'll see sub normal amounts of rain and snow.. some areas, especially west of I-35 will likely be exceptionally below normal for the winter season. This does not mean there won't be any ice/snow events, I think there will be at least one or two but won't be of much consequence.

As of now, unless we can get a major pattern shift.. expect drought conditions to worsen into the spring and summer of 2013. Wish I had better news.. I truly hope I'm wrong.

[rockyinyourradio]

Just read the updated winter forecast from Weatherbell.com which I'm a subscriber. Their last winter prediction was not that accurate but then again, no long term forecaster got last winter's prediction right,
This winter Weatherbell is forecasting a mild Dec., a colder than normal Jan. and a slightly above normal Feb. temperature wise. What's interesting is that they are predicting an ABOVE average amount of snowfall for all of Oklahoma. I'll believe it when I see the whites of it's eyes. Ironically, they think that this winter could be similar to 2010-11, if you recall, Feb of 2011, we saw an almost apocalyptic snow and cold event that sent temperatures plummeting to all time record lows (-31F in Nowata) and close to 40" of snow for the month of Feb. in parts of the Grand Lake area that month, an event I still relish as one of the greatest meteorologic anomalies of our life time. Given the current pattern we're in, I find it hard to believe that we'll see anything even close to that, but hey.. this is Oklahoma, where the abnormal is the normal when it comes to the weather.. gotta love it!

[rockyinyourradio]

Becoming increasingly confident of a pattern change roughly starting the end of next week (around 12/8-10), and may last intermittently for at least a few weeks. We should see some brief but impressive chill that will graze our area for about 2-4 days at a stretch followed by much above normal temperatures that would last about as long. It's possible that we'll experience temperatures as low as 12-16F here in the OKC, Stillwater area during the colder periods with daytime highs in the 30's, then suddenly warm into the 60's, perhaps near 70 a day or two later. What I don't see is a break in the dry streak we're currently facing. It's conceivable that we'll experience one of the driest December's on record. More to follow.

[debbie at bouontiful]

How long do drought generally last rocky? I have lived here for 14 years and last two summers were killers for me. Watering cows is not fun!

[Chelito23]

Thanks for the interesting analysis Rocky. Just how cold did OKC and Tulsa get in the anomalous 2010-11 winter? That -30 in NE OK rivels all time record lows in the Upper Midwest! Yikes!

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Thanks for the interesting analysis Rocky. Just how cold did OKC and Tulsa get in the anomalous 2010-11 winter? That -30 in NE OK rivels all time record lows in the Upper Midwest! Yikes!

The coldest low temperature since records have been kept for the Upper Midwest east of the Mississippi River was -60F in Couderay, WI in January 1996. -30F is frigid, but paltry to how cold lows can get further north.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

How long do drought generally last rocky? I have lived here for 14 years and last two summers were killers for me. Watering cows is not fun!

The average cyclical drought is about 3 to 5 years but some have been known to last up to 10 years as what apparently happened in the 1880's to 1890's and from roughly 1910-1918.

[Chelito23]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

The coldest low temperature since records have been kept for the Upper Midwest east of the Mississippi River was -60F in Couderay, WI in January 1996. -30F is frigid, but paltry to how cold lows can get further north.

Well, yes....of course I didn't mean it rivaled the record lows there, just that it was up there with record lows for good old Madison, WI as a matter of fact. That is pretty amazing to me that a good chunk of the Upper Midwest has similar record lows, sans the Northwoods of Wisconsin, Michigan's UP and the Minnesota-ND corridor! I guess I should have said lower-upper Midwest lol....

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Well, yes....of course I didn't mean it rivaled the record lows there, just that it was up there with record lows for good old Madison, WI as a matter of fact. That is pretty amazing to me that a good chunk of the Upper Midwest has similar record lows, sans the Northwoods of Wisconsin, Michigan's UP and the Minnesota-ND corridor! I guess I should have said lower-upper Midwest lol....

Yes, the Upper Midwest is quite diverse, meaning lots of different climate zones in a relatively short distance. You are correct that it is suprising that Madison, WI does not have a few record lows that are as cold or colder than -40F. That low temperature of -31F of Nowata was probably a once in 1,000 years type of event given the latitude and elevation in that area.