[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Thanks for the interesting analysis Rocky. Just how cold did OKC and Tulsa get in the anomalous 2010-11 winter? That -30 in NE OK rivels all time record lows in the Upper Midwest! Yikes!

On Feb. 10th, Tulsa hit -12F, their second coldest night ever recorded. I believe -16F is their coldest.
On the same date, OKC hit -5F. Northwest of Piedmont where I live, we barely stayed above 0 because of a constant light wind but literally just below Piedmont by a mile or two, it was at least -10F. What's astounding is that about 5 days later, temperatures were in the 70's and actually had a night that stayed above 60 here in OKC. Talk about weather whiplash!

A brief update on our pattern change starting in about 8 days give or take a day or so, I'm starting to see some interesting changes, not just with the potential arctic outbreak that will now likely envelope at least half of the country by Dec. 15-20th and likely beyond, but what may FINALLY be a change in the jetstream that may allow for some rain and probably some snow/ice to occur over parts of the southern plains. Still, I think the chances are better that what precipitation we do get will be inconsequential, but the model trends are starting to grab my attention. Another day or two and I may have to "adjust" my forecast for a slightly wetter or even snowier outlook. .. Could we be in for a white Christmas after all??

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Yes, the Upper Midwest is quite diverse, meaning lots of different climate zones in a relatively short distance. You are correct that it is suprising that Madison, WI does not have a few record lows that are as cold or colder than -40F. That low temperature of -31F of Nowata was probably a once in 1,000 years type of event given the latitude and elevation in that area.

What was fascinating about that night was that the conditions were perfect for a big temperature drop due to high pressure being directly overhead, so wind was calm throughout the night AND a deep snow pack.. we're talking in Nowata, it was about 18" deep, maybe more. Those conditions are perfect for radiational cooling at it's best, plus I believe their mesonet station lies in a lower elevation area where the cold air collects more readily under such conditions.

FWIW: You mentioning places like northern MN. and Upper Michigan.. I lived in the Houghton area for many years, gosh do I miss it there. This is one reason why I miss winter so much.. but even getting that type of snow here in OKC or Tulsa again discombobulates most everyone around here, so it wouldn't be near as fun unless I just stay off the roads. Also GraniteStater, just want to thank you for all your posts on the New England forums, your quite the weather guy! Are you a degreed meteorologist? Thanks again and hope to see you more on this thread to keep this going.

[nightbird47]

I first moved here from socal four years ago. That winter we had four days in a row with a high of 16, and at night it got down to zero or below. Then that night, about ten o'clock, I took out some trash and there was a warm wind. I think the temp had gone up from less than twenty to almost eighty in a few hours. It cooled down after but that was a very wierd moment.

A white christmas would be okay. Just please no blizzard like 09...

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

What was fascinating about that night was that the conditions were perfect for a big temperature drop due to high pressure being directly overhead, so wind was calm throughout the night AND a deep snow pack.. we're talking in Nowata, it was about 18" deep, maybe more. Those conditions are perfect for radiational cooling at it's best, plus I believe their mesonet station lies in a lower elevation area where the cold air collects more readily under such conditions.

FWIW: You mentioning places like northern MN. and Upper Michigan.. I lived in the Houghton area for many years, gosh do I miss it there. This is one reason why I miss winter so much.. but even getting that type of snow here in OKC or Tulsa again discombobulates most everyone around here, so it wouldn't be near as fun unless I just stay off the roads. Also GraniteStater, just want to thank you for all your posts on the New England forums, your quite the weather guy! Are you a degreed meteorologist? Thanks again and hope to see you more on this thread to keep this going.

I don't have a degree in meteorology, but I did take several meteorology courses at the college level. I have been a hobbyist for years, had a decent weather station when I was younger, and still follow the computer models quite a bit. I'm a big winter person and am originially from the Kansas City region. Winters were too mild there for my liking and numerous other negatives about the area I didn't care for. I've lived in many other areas of the US since then, but generally prefer to stay above 42-43N as I find the intense sun angle and heat of the southern tier to be intolerable at best. I prefer to be outdoors in the Summer and Winter (big skier and snowshoer). My ideal place to live if I wasn't concerned about jobs would be the Northwoods with frontage on a large lake, similar to one you would find in Vilas County, WI (Boulder Junction, Presque Isle, Land O'Lakes) being some of my favorite spots.
We could talk further if you want to send me a DM.

[bchris02]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

On Feb. 10th, Tulsa hit -12F, their second coldest night ever recorded. I believe -16F is their coldest.
On the same date, OKC hit -5F. Northwest of Piedmont where I live, we barely stayed above 0 because of a constant light wind but literally just below Piedmont by a mile or two, it was at least -10F. What's astounding is that about 5 days later, temperatures were in the 70's and actually had a night that stayed above 60 here in OKC. Talk about weather whiplash!

A brief update on our pattern change starting in about 8 days give or take a day or so, I'm starting to see some interesting changes, not just with the potential arctic outbreak that will now likely envelope at least half of the country by Dec. 15-20th and likely beyond, but what may FINALLY be a change in the jetstream that may allow for some rain and probably some snow/ice to occur over parts of the southern plains. Still, I think the chances are better that what precipitation we do get will be inconsequential, but the model trends are starting to grab my attention. Another day or two and I may have to "adjust" my forecast for a slightly wetter or even snowier outlook. .. Could we be in for a white Christmas after all??

It looks like the next week is calling for highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Like I said, its not unusual to have warm days in December but to have such a long stretch of warmth is relatively unusual. I hope some colder weather will be here by mid-month.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by bchris02

It looks like the next week is calling for highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Like I said, its not unusual to have warm days in December but to have such a long stretch of warmth is relatively unusual. I hope some colder weather will be here by mid-month.

I'm thinking the southern Plains will have a few shots of "cooler" air the rest of the month, but it seems like the warmth will rebuild quickly with the type of pattern we're in at the present time. I'm not expecting much precip either which is a very bad sign, unfortunately!

[Zachj7]

Possible snow next week!
Hope that GFS trend confines to verify!

[#1soonerfan]

^
Good. Even a nice, quick cooldown would be appreciated.

It is difficult to get in the Christmas spirit when it is 80 degrees outside.

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by #1soonerfan

^
Good. Even a nice, quick cooldown would be appreciated.

It is difficult to get in the Christmas spirit when it is 80 degrees outside.

I grew up in the Phoenix area, this IS Christmas.

[debbie at bouontiful]

This is horrible not Christmas at all. I moved from the upper Midwest and boy do I miss the snow. Now we haven't had rain for so long I am getting worried about that. I have a blueberry upick and irrigation is getting low not to mention cattle! I am now running water to them from a (Thank the Good Lord) a wonderful well. I don't know what we'd do without that well. Our ponds and creeks look sick.