Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Florida: houses, school, live in)

[L00k4ward]

[QUOTE=GeoffD;62507650]“Never tell me the odds.”
— Han Solo[/quote]

I have some re-buttals for their “back of the napkin” calculations of odds re.: vaccinated vs unvaccinated getting sick.
Too tedious, too many facts, have no interest to “re-educate” an unknown stranger on the web, not too invested- sorry.

The point stands that the vaccinated spread the virus, so time to shut up about the horrible unvaccinated people.

Apologies for quoting a primitive article from BBC, but even here they mention for layman

“Two doses of some vaccines offer almost no protection from an Omicron infection, although they should still greatly reduce the risk of becoming so ill you need hospital care.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59639973

The no needing hospital care is still very debatable, the scientists have contradictory results and opinions regarding antibodies disease enhancement but some convincing research about it happening are trickling in if anyone know how to do a search for it

(As you could imagine it can not possibly be a front page news due to politics and pharmaceutical/healthcare interests and social climate of “divide the people and rip the benefits” climate in the society.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by bostongymjunkie

Yup. Florida (the old people capital of the nation) also lower per capita morbidity and at one time highest vaccine rates for over 65. No extensive lockdowns.

What do you mean by lower per capita morbidity? Looking at Covid death rates per capita, Florida is the 10th highest (just above Mass. which is #11). Not quite a place to be envious of. And the old people capital of the nation would be Maine, not Florida. Maine ranks as the 3rd lowest death rate. Wouldn't that be the place to model after, if anywhere (although things there aren't going so great at the moment either)?



https://www.statista.com/statistics/...s-us-by-state/

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by lrfox

You're right. And we were never actually "locked down."

But there were still significant restrictions in place in December 2020. Restaurants and stores had capacity limits. Many simply remained close for that period of time. Mask mandates existed statewide. Large events, both indoor and outdoor events were not taking place. Bars weren't allowed to operate without serving food (and many of them remained closed). Private indoor gatherings were limited to 10 indoors, 25 outdoors, etc. People are doing a good deal more and gathering in far greater numbers today than they were in December 2020. And that was the point being made.

Sometimes I talk to people in other countries. We had nothing even remotely close to a lockdown like Asia and Europe. Some were under house arrest in everything but name. Wearing a mask isn't a big deal. People still went outside and traveled domestically. Sure we had smaller groups but we still allowed it. If we tried what Europe and Asia did we'd have a much bigger backlash.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Sometimes I talk to people in other countries. We had nothing even remotely close to a lockdown like Asia and Europe. Some were under house arrest in everything but name. Wearing a mask isn't a big deal. People still went outside and traveled domestically. Sure we had smaller groups but we still allowed it. If we tried what Europe and Asia did we'd have a much bigger backlash.

Thank you for saying this. And add ANZ to the list. I laugh when people talk about how we were under "lockdown" or "quarantine" in 2020.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Thank you for saying this. And add ANZ to the list. I laugh when people talk about how we were under "lockdown" or "quarantine" in 2020.

I find nothing funny about huge swaths of the world being placed under house arrest in an ostensible attempt to curb the spread of a virus that has a 99.9% survival rate for people under 50 (CDC figures). I'm grateful that American systems made it stop short of that point.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by L00k4ward

I have some re-buttals for their “back of the napkin” calculations of odds re.: vaccinated vs unvaccinated getting sick.
Too tedious, too many facts, have no interest to “re-educate” an unknown stranger on the web, not too invested- sorry.

The point stands that the vaccinated spread the virus, so time to shut up about the horrible unvaccinated people.

Apologies for quoting a primitive article from BBC, but even here they mention for layman

“Two doses of some vaccines offer almost no protection from an Omicron infection, although they should still greatly reduce the risk of becoming so ill you need hospital care.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59639973

The no needing hospital care is still very debatable, the scientists have contradictory results and opinions regarding antibodies disease enhancement but some convincing research about it happening are trickling in if anyone know how to do a search for it

(As you could imagine it can not possibly be a front page news due to politics and pharmaceutical/healthcare interests and social climate of “divide the people and rip the benefits” climate in the society.

I'll try to use little words so you can comprehend them.




The current data is that vaccinated and boosted, vaccine efficacy is 90% or better against Delta. I'm 90% less likely to be infected and transmit the disease than someone who is unvaccinated. If I'm in a room with everyone vaccinated and boosted and one of them happens to be infected, I'm 90% less likely to get infected myself. If everyone is vaccinated, the transmission rate drops down well below 1.0 and this thing goes away. It's the selfish unvaccinated people who are prolonging the pandemic. If you're not vaccinated, you're selfish. End of story.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I'll try to use little words so you can comprehend them.




The current data is that vaccinated and boosted, vaccine efficacy is 90% or better against Delta. I'm 90% less likely to be infected and transmit the disease than someone who is unvaccinated. If I'm in a room with everyone vaccinated and boosted and one of them happens to be infected, I'm 90% less likely to get infected myself. If everyone is vaccinated, the transmission rate drops down well below 1.0 and this thing goes away. It's the selfish unvaccinated people who are prolonging the pandemic. If you're not vaccinated, you're selfish. End of story.

I understood this logic previously, but yours is a very clear explanation. But honestly, it will be beyond the comprehension of many. A good analogy is how many don't understand how/why you have to multiply, not add, probabilities to get the odds of 2 simultaneous events.

It's the new fallacy "well, the vaxxed spread it too" that has become the crutch of the deniers or the anti-mandate folks.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Sometimes I talk to people in other countries. We had nothing even remotely close to a lockdown like Asia and Europe. Some were under house arrest in everything but name. Wearing a mask isn't a big deal. People still went outside and traveled domestically. Sure we had smaller groups but we still allowed it. If we tried what Europe and Asia did we'd have a much bigger backlash.

I have coworkers in Malaysia that I speak to frequently. When they get a "spike" of 200 cases or so, they go into a lockdown that would make heads roll here.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

I understood this logic previously, but yours is a very clear explanation. But honestly, it will be beyond the comprehension of many. A good analogy is how many don't understand how/why you have to multiply, not add, probabilities to get the odds of 2 simultaneous events.

It's the new fallacy "well, the vaxxed spread it too" that has become the crutch of the deniers or the anti-mandate folks.

It's not "beyond the comprehension" of anyone, it's just implausible. He's describing a fantasy where the Rt of the virus stays under 1, forever, thanks to the magic shots and what ever else "public health" feels like recommending that week. That fantasy has run smack into the concrete wall of reality everywhere in the world, no matter how many shots are delivered to how many people.

He can believe "this just means we need more shots," just like he can believe in Santa Claus, if he wants.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by L00k4ward

I have some re-buttals for their “back of the napkin” calculations of odds re.: vaccinated vs unvaccinated getting sick.
Too tedious, too many facts, have no interest to “re-educate” an unknown stranger on the web, not too invested- sorry.

So you say you have some rebuttals, but yet you can't find any fault with what I wrote. Where is the mistake?