Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Provincetown: home, to buy, high school)

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Brighter days (than last fall) are ahead.

Unlikely but I hope you're right.

[redplum33]

1,079 deaths today nationwide. This is the first time since April it has hit a thousand.

[yesmaybe]

Is going up but is still entirely manageable here. These kind of bumps might be the new normal.

[rach5]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

I think most locales would *kill* for a <0.3% positivity rate. I would not worry about New England colleges and universities contributing to another surge this fall. We gotta focus on the ~2M unvaxxed in our state instead. Yesterday's SC ruling, and impending FDA approval, will (I believe) open the floodgates for employers and businesses to start to require proof of vaccination.

Brighter days (than last fall) are ahead.

It's an "asymptomatic" positivity rate on an almost fully vaccinated campus that's hugely de-densified. It gives us a good idea of breakthrough infections for delta. From that same website at Brown, in the entire past year in their asymptomatic testing program, since last August, 4.6% of those tested have tested positive - so things seem to be speeding up despite vaccinations (and it will surely get much worse with all the students flying in from all over and full dorms - I have seen no plans about what universities plan to do to isolate the covid cases).
I think this does not bode well for fall even here in New England. I hope deaths will be manageable thanks to vaccinations here, but I do wonder how much we will see in terms of long-term impact for those that get "mild" disease (including our young kids...where it will likely spread like wildfire this fall).

[msRB311]

Perhaps universities shouldn't have jumped the gun on bringing students back this fall. All about the money though. Can't have people pay for remote college when they're expecting in person.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by msRB311

Perhaps universities shouldn't have jumped the gun on bringing students back this fall. All about the money though. Can't have people pay for remote college when they're expecting in person.

Right but the other aspects is that it creates false impressions for graduatates if they still think things are in person

[OutdoorLover]

We do have 65% fully vaccinated, and with better coverage of the more vulnerable older people, so even if cases go as high as they did last January, you would expect significantly lower hospitalizations and deaths in Mass. As far as the case rate, I won't be shocked if we can still reach that peak again - yes we have the vaccinations, and they help some even on infection and transmission, but Delta is much more efficient at transmission.

One might hope that the specific immunity that's been gained and will be gained by vaccination and infection will still be relevant against new variants, and if so, one would expect that over time, the virus will begin to run out of naive hosts and the pandemic will diminish in ferocity, i.e., we may find that in another 6 months, we're getting to some level of herd immunity.

Mind you, the virus won't eradicate itself, it will keep evolving, but with anti-vax sentiment still running very high here, I think the best we might hope for is that the virus will to some extent become self-limiting, and may become an annual thing of lower drama, with rational people getting vaccinated annually, as they now do for influenza.

[OutdoorLover]

A recent report in the Boston Business Journal indicated that many hospitals in the state are significantly short-staffed. I think many states are in this position, but it's not good.
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/n...challenge.html

[OutdoorLover]

For those who believe in science and medicine, a nice audio interview between the editors at NEJM re updates on Covid-19 treatments. Some interesting points are made regarding immunocompromised individuals - you might know someone who has chronic leukemia or has received an organ transplant and is on immunosuppressant drugs, for example....

• Studies indicate that even when the first two doses of vaccine provide little useful antibody response in immunocompromised people, a third dose may be effective in raising the antibody titer
• While the cost of monoclonal antibodies makes them inappropriate for widespread use, they make a lot of sense for infected/immunocompromised people, who won't develop a good antibody response on their own. Monoclonal antibodies must be given early in the course of disease to be effective.

This and more at:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2113398

[OutdoorLover]

The news re Covid-19 can be confusing. There are real questions as to the efficacy of vaccines to prevent Delta-variant infection and transmission - which is why masks and social distancing are still being encouraged, even for vaccinated individuals, in riskier settings.

However, it is actually clear that double vaccination with the mRNA vaccines provides excellent protection against trips to the hospital, the ICU, and the morgue, due to infection with either the Alpha or the Delta variants.

On the infection and spread of Delta, see "How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says":
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1