Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: concerts, starting, process)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by lrfox

I understand the logic generally speaking - the deadlier strain is more, well, deadly. And generally, if a virus is incapacitating people (and in many cases, eventually killing them), the hosts aren't spreading it as rapidly because they're incapacitated (or dead). So over time, the weaker strain becomes the dominant strain because hosts are not incapacitated and can spread it far and wide.

It's tough with COVID-19, however, because the incubation period is often pretty long. Even a deadly case can exist in a host and be spread for days before symptoms start to show.

Which was my point. Most people who contract and spread around COVID-19 don't become seriously ill. Why would a less virulent strain have any advantage over the strains being spread around now? If you contracted it and immediately died, sure.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by lrfox

While it's never been a foregone conclusion, it was also never safe to assume it wouldn't happen either given the information we've had at hand. Naturally, without an effective and widely distributed vaccine, herd immunity, or the virus mutating to the point of dying off, it's safer to assume that once people start resuming "normal" behaviors, that it would lead to another spike in cases. We won't know for sure until it does or doesn't happen. The report from Italy is good news, but it's far from concrete. And most of the viruses vary slightly by region, so it doesn't necessarily mean what's happening in Italy is happening to the virus here.

The other thing that could happen is that we develop treatments that are effective enough that very few people land in the ICU with severe pneumonia. Maybe we don't get to herd immunity but we could get to the point where enough of us have been exposed that we don't have the severe immune response the second time. It still is high risk for the nursing homes and similar immune-compromised people just like the flu but it knocks most of the risk out for everyone else. "Defend the nursing homes" has far less cost than trying to defend everyone. It would be far less societal cost to equip the nursing home staff with the best in PPE, train them to use it, and test them frequently. If I knew that some antiviral cocktail was highly effective, my behavior would change significantly.

[mdovell]

^^^ while that is true elderly people are more apt to vote and certainly have more in finances to mount opposition. I'm not sure if we'd have a retirement home industry in another few years if this stays. Heck how should open town meetings for towns work?

My fear would be if this mutates further. The numbers I see from DPH are as follows

53 - average age of someone with it (I believe this has dropped)
68 - average age of someone with it that needs to be hospitalized
82 - average age of someone that dies from it

I think that it can be established that there's a difference between elderly people that can live by themselves and function and those that cannot. We shouldn't assume a broad generalization.

[BostonMike7]

Good news on the case count. Under 400 new cases and 50 deaths. Also, Hospitalizations continue to fall. Less than 1700 Hospitalized

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Good news on the case count. Under 400 new cases and 50 deaths. Also, Hospitalizations continue to fall. Less than 1700 Hospitalized

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download

Yes, I agree, this is great news. At the risk of sounding political, I will say I love how our officials are basing their decisions and actions on data of this type (the 3 key indicators, all moving averages to even out the spikes of individual days).

Any bets on whether Phase 2 will begin on June 8? Baker is playing coy again...

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Yes, I agree, this is great news. At the risk of sounding political, I will say I love how our officials are basing their decisions and actions on data of this type (the 3 key indicators, all moving averages to even out the spikes of individual days).

If anything, the riots are a direct result of being too slow to reopen. Not just here but the entire country as a whole.

As to whether Phase 2 will start on the 8th, it's more likely the 15th, whether the riots continue is probably driving the decision now.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

If anything, the riots are a direct result of being too slow to reopen. Not just here but the entire country as a whole.

As to whether Phase 2 will start on the 8th, it's more likely the 15th, whether the riots continue is probably driving the decision now.

Yeah, I was just watching MSNBC, and they were showing aerial shots of the crowds in Boston. Social distancing out the window, for sure.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Yeah, I was just watching MSNBC, and they were showing aerial shots of the crowds in Boston. Social distancing out the window, for sure.

So there will either be a spike in a few weeks or the authorities need to rethink what restrictions are appropriate.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

So there will either be a spike in a few weeks or the authorities need to rethink what restrictions are appropriate.

I really hope there isn't a spike. If that's the case, it will be great evidence that wearing masks can be a workable way back to normalcy all around.

[porterhouse]

We’ll find out if this was all overdone or not in a few weeks. People are out in full force today, traffic, store parking lots, etc. are at pre pandemic levels. The protests and riots have unofficially reopened the country without regard for the phases.