Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Springfield, Lowell: brownstone, low income, homes)

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Can I be the contrarian here? I've been a huge believer is erring on the side of safety...but how in heck can 20 seconds of exposure, from masked people passing by one another, increase the risk? So what if people walk down both ways, no one is lingering in the aisles.

The argument is probably airflow just like many places are having one way in and one way out (cue Thunderdome)

Some areas allow one in and multi out but no reentry. MGM springfield has one way in to check if you have a mask. You can leave from a variety but the only reentry is around the back again. There's cameras all over the place. I was in the lounge sitting and was told to go back to the gaming floor. The lounge isn't active right now, you can exit but not lounge in it (no pun intended). At work there's one way in and out for the most part with basic security at the door for mask enforcement. We're getting more advanced air purifiers soon.

So it might not be 20 seconds but with a dry heat on the horizon particles can stay in the air longer so if there's a bounce back and forth like badminton from people it will keep going in different directions.

[jtolpin]

Close down entertainment like what? Movie theaters, casinos, etc...? Or more/less than that?

With the 10 PM curfew, casinos/theaters are losing money but following rules. What else can be done?

I would think family gatherings are still happenning by some.

[rach5]

They are considering opening field hospitals again.

[BostonMike7]

Slowly climbed from ~300 to over 600 hospitalizations in the last 2-3 months. If this upwards trend continues, especially if it breaks out among an older population, could very well need those hospitals.

I hope not

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Slowly climbed from ~300 to over 600 hospitalizations in the last 2-3 months. If this upwards trend continues, especially if it breaks out among an older population, could very well need those hospitals.

I hope not

I think most of the older at-risk population has taken themselves out of circulation. Hopefully, that keeps the ICUs from overflowing.



If it gets really bad, the nursing home infection control process breaks down because you can't test all the staff frequently enough to keep it out and they don't have the proper PPE. After all this, we still have an N95 mask shortage. Thanks Jared.

[mdovell]

I think the deployment of the vaccine is going to take awhile. Consider this

1) You have to have it twice over a month period

2) This cannot be provided in more rural areas, more likely urban

3) It can't be a drug store, it has to be quite cold.

I'm thinking for western Mass it's going to be Bay State, Mercy and the Big E Fairgrounds. Hundreds of thousands of people going to the same area over the course has only one default place that this could be...the Big E. It's also open air which helps. I'd argue that Worcester, Boston, Fall River/New Bedford, Brockton, maybe Taunton Lowell or Lawrence would be the main areas to go.

[BostonMike7]

Here's a draft of the Massachusetts plan

https://www.mass.gov/doc/massachuset...-plan/download

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I think most of the older at-risk population has taken themselves out of circulation. Hopefully, that keeps the ICUs from overflowing.

While I agree that the very high risk population (75+) seems to managing risk well post-spring, the 55-75 demographic seems to be less cautious despite relatively elevated IFR numbers. This group has an avg IFR of 2.5+ (if proportioning to the demographic splits) and they represent nearly a quarter (23%) of the MA population.

At 6.8 million, the hospitalizations and deaths can ramp quickly if that segment of the population is complacent. Complacency in sub-45 demographic is far less likely to cause an ICU 'run'.

[yesmaybe]

Almost 2500 today. Still don't get where these people are catching it other than spreading it at home.

[Steephill2]

Originally Posted by jtolpin

Im no scientist. I havent seen all the data.

I havent seen inside a school either. Im assuming the desks are far from each other, everyones wearing a mask, plastic barriers everywhere. People kind of scared of things.

With all that in palce, how can there be an increased spread from that? Couldnt it be related to grocery stores, other stores, etc...?

This is very interesting. Anyone aware of any studies out there comparing remote learning to In person learning + all these added restrictions mentioned above? Is it really that easy to say in person learning is better with all these changes?