[ND_Irish]

IHME makes more downward adjustments today.


Yesterday, it said the United States would need 140,823 hospital beds, 29,210 ICU beds, and 24,828 ventilators. Today, it says the United States would need 94,249 hospital beds and 19,438 ICU beds, and 16,524 ventilators. Projected deaths by August 4th were 81,766 yesterday; today, projected deaths by that date are 60,415. These are massive downward revisions to the projections in just one day! Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The downward revisions for Nevada by IHME are equally dramatic. Yesterday, IHME projected Nevada would eventually need 2,490 hospital beds, 483 ICU beds, and 411 ventilators at the peak. Today, it says Nevada will need 1,085 hospital beds, 216 ICU beds, and 184 ventilators. Ironically, the new peak numbers almost match what were supposed to be yesterday's numbers in their forecast (1,273 hospital beds, 216 ICU beds, and 183 ventilators). It appears they may also have aligned their death projections with actual numbers. Consequently, their forecast of 916 deaths by August 4th has now been revised downward as of today to 445 deaths. Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...america/nevada


There is no way national, state, and local governments should be solely relying on this model to be making any more policy decisions. Furthermore, speaking of the transparency we all were promised by Governor Sisolak, we have a right to know the specific models the State of Nevada is using when discussing projections at press conferences. It would be great if some local reporter would start asking some tough questions at these virtual press conferences so the citizens know exactly what is going on here.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

It's accurate though, I can find plenty of other non Jeff Bezos owned papers that say the same thing. Is name calling, a juvenile trait, common among all right wing fanatics or just most of them?

"Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me... you can't get fooled again" unless you're a conservative

Am I supposed to respect a man with literal delusions of grandeur about running the entire world? I mean, the man started a money-losing online bookstore, and turned it into a money-losing online department store. The only reason the company makes any money at all is because activist investors were going to pull the plug on him in the early 2000s which is when he bought cloudfront so something on the balance sheet would show a profit.

To this day, Amazon's retail business unit still loses money. Every. Single. Year.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

Pandemic economics. Numbers going down is good. Means social distancing is working and we're flattening the curve. ~80K deaths is optimistic and better than 200k

Correlation != Causation

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by hotjambalaya

maybe you cant see it because you're american, but as an outsider I think the concept of american society doing as its told when it comes to this is absolutely laughable. Its just impossible, there's just something in the american psyche that sees any interference as a huge invasion of freedom and liberty, next thing theres a 4 hour line at every gun shop while people scream about the stafford act and troops on the street yelling "arm yourself be ready to fight for freedom against government oppression"

Yes for the most part people aren't running around committing crimes on a daily basis, but huge amounts of otherwise law abiding citizens are ready to be triggered, and will not listen to new laws curtailing their freedom because they don't think it applies to them.

The amount of people that seem to be spending time hanging out at friends houses, or golfing, or hiking together while this is going on says it all really.

Compare this to japan, and I guarantee you that if they go for a lockdown you will not see a single person on the streets unless they absolutely have to be there. They are a FAR FAR more socially responsible towards the greater good, and not just compared to the usa, but compared to pretty much any country.

They're also ex-communist and bombed pearl harbor. They never admit fault to "save face" and won't ever rock the boat in a corporate setting, even when they know the person in charge is off their rocker.

The structure of their society lead directly to the massive ongoing nuclear disasters at Fukushima that have permanently poisoned the Pacific Ocean and will probably eventually lead to an extinction level event. Nobody has noticed because the media is mum about the whole thing and the disaster is occurring in super slow motion.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

There are so many exogenous shocks that models have a tough time keeping up. As more people take social distancing seriously, it drops the R0, which in turn drops both the actuals and the forecasts.

Its impossible to draw any conclusions about whether these measures work because there is no control group.

If they had cut Vegas in half and did lockdown on one side and nothing on the other and then compared those numbers they could actually draw some conclusions about how effective the lockdowns are.

Right now, its just a self fulfilling political stunt for the left. If numbers go down, they will claim the lockdowns worked. If the numbers don't go down, they will claim it was already too late and there was nothing they could do about it, but at least they tried.

Its the same deal with the death rate numbers. Its impossible to apply them to the entire population because the sample group is not randomly selected.

[Merrily Gather]

Originally Posted by equid0x

Correlation != Causation

It's how flatten the curve works. If you spent any time reading up on it. Sheesh.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by equid0x

Am I supposed to respect a man with literal delusions of grandeur about running the entire world? I mean, the man started a money-losing online bookstore, and turned it into a money-losing online department store. The only reason the company makes any money at all is because activist investors were going to pull the plug on him in the early 2000s which is when he bought cloudfront so something on the balance sheet would show a profit.

To this day, Amazon's retail business unit still loses money. Every. Single. Year.

Much more complicated than that. Amazon continues to plow large sums into growth. But the underlying US unit is likely profitable.

A discussion from the Fool...

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/...rofitable.aspx

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

It's how flatten the curve works. If you spent any time reading up on it. Sheesh.

Again, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is zero evidence that curve flattening works because there is no control group.

[CD2017]

Originally Posted by equid0x

Again, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is zero evidence that curve flattening works because there is no control group.

There is no (or little) evidence now. That being said, in time, we will have some evidence, albeit not an ideal control group that will let us know if social distancing works. Not all experiments can have a control group. Whether we should have done what we are doing is a separate argument.

So you're correct that currently, we have little data about this current outbreak. There is historical data from other viruses to infer. So you're right, while probably also being wrong at the same time. You can ask if this was worth it, sure. But let's repeat........ to do research, one does not have to have a control group. A control group just makes that data more accurate (admittedly, much more so generally,)

[EA]

Originally Posted by equid0x

Again, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is zero evidence that curve flattening works because there is no control group.

Go outside and tell me people are doing anything that would flatten the curve.

They're everywhere, in groups, doing everything except supporting "illegal" businesses.
If anything, we made things worse and yet the numbers keep on dropping.

It's almost like this thing is waaaaaaaay overblown.