[equid0x]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

Read the cited article. It is clear that the IHME model is optimistic...

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Experts and state leaders, however, continued to steel themselves for grim weeks ahead, noting that the revised model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington conflicts with many other models showing higher equipment shortages, deaths and projected peaks.
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And an example...
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This is how starkly models can differ.

Local leaders in the District said on Friday that their model estimates the outbreak in the nation’s capital will peak June 28. The IHME model predicts the peak is coming in just days, on April 16. The District’s model predicts hospitals will need 1,453 ventilators at the peak. IHME predicts a need for only 107. The District is using the IHME model as a best-case scenario and the more dire model to prepare for a likely surge.
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So somehow you believe the IHME model is pessimistic?

They just updated the model and downgraded predictions by nearly 75%.

[ND_Irish]

Meanwhile, Sweden, unlike Nevada, decided to pursue sensible recommendations, (e.g., isolate the sick and elderly, recommend, not mandate, social distancing, and limit gatherings to 50 people or less), treat its citizens like adults, and not kill its economy. Grade schools, restaurants, bars, and shops are still open! (Source: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...economic-ruin/). Amazingly, the total number of new cases in Sweden is trending down per WHO situation reports which can be found here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reports.


I agree with equid0x regarding the IHME model. I have taken screen shots periodically over the last week of their projections, and they continue to be revised down significantly. Policy should be made based on the actual data at hand, not models which will have inherent bias.

[EA]

Luckily most people are ignoring lock down and are getting fresh air and vitamin D instead of staying inside with stale air.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by ND_Irish

Meanwhile, Sweden, unlike Nevada, decided to pursue sensible recommendations, (e.g., isolate the sick and elderly, recommend, not mandate, social distancing, and limit gatherings to 50 people or less), treat its citizens like adults, and not kill its economy. Grade schools, restaurants, bars, and shops are still open! (Source: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...economic-ruin/). Amazingly, the total number of new cases in Sweden is trending down per WHO situation reports which can be found here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reports.


I agree with equid0x regarding the IHME model. I have taken screen shots periodically over the last week of their projections, and they continue to be revised down significantly. Policy should be made based on the actual data at hand, not models which will have inherent bias.

That does no good. The preparation for events requires lead time and acquiring the needed materials. So things like ICU and ventilator usage have to be planned in advance particularly if the event is expected to be much bigger than normal.

So practically you need to project where you will be in the future. That is where the models come in.

And the IHME model will continue to be updated as data becomes available. The object is to make the best projection possible. And the issue with the IHME model has been lower projections than other models. And this is an area where an overly optimistic projection could turn into a disaster.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by ND_Irish

Meanwhile, Sweden, unlike Nevada, decided to pursue sensible recommendations, (e.g., isolate the sick and elderly, recommend, not mandate, social distancing, and limit gatherings to 50 people or less), treat its citizens like adults, and not kill its economy. Grade schools, restaurants, bars, and shops are still open! (Source: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...economic-ruin/). Amazingly, the total number of new cases in Sweden is trending down per WHO situation reports which can be found here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reports.


I agree with equid0x regarding the IHME model. I have taken screen shots periodically over the last week of their projections, and they continue to be revised down significantly. Policy should be made based on the actual data at hand, not models which will have inherent bias.

The jury is still out on Sweden, it will make an interest test case. Why are you already drawing conclusions?

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by EA

Luckily most people are ignoring lock down and are getting fresh air and vitamin D instead of staying inside with stale air.

I partly agree with you. Cruise ships are a good example of stale recirculated air, and everyone getting sick.

Summertime means people are practicing natural social distancing, not staying indoors in confined heated spaces.

I do believe (natural) vitamin D is great for the immune system, and Las Vegas might be lucky sunshine is plentiful.

The problem is our economy is Casinos. They need to come together and figure how they can reopen and provide a safe, disease free environment. Maybe free quarantine rooms or something, I don't know.

As soon as instant testing is available, I think things will slowly get back to normal. There is a test being developed that shows 1. If you've had the disease and have the antibodies, 2. Are currently sick and are transmissive, 3. Are not sick. It covers everything but I don't remember exactly what their 3 points were.

Who's going to want to go to a casino anytime soon? Conference? I'd estimate 90% of the relevant population are terrified.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

I hope you're right.

One of the issues is models are built on assumptions which in turn are built on assumptions which in turn are built on assumptions, etc. Very much like a house built on a foundation of sand.

Both the numerator and denominator in percentage calculations are highly suspect. But if we take today's WHO numbers (also highly suspect because they include China),

Confirmed deaths WW from COVID-19: 74,870
Confirmed COVID-19 infections WW: 1,359,398

Confirmed deaths as a percentage of total confirmed infections: ~ 5.5%.

In the USA,

Confirmed deaths from COVID-19: 11,773
Confirmed COVID-19 infections: 377,317

Confirmed deaths as a percentage of total confirmed infections: ~ 3.1%.

And yes, both the numerator and denominator are understated and both are suspect, but that's the data we have.

With roughly 330 million people in the USA, a 3.1% death rate implies about 10,296,620 dead.

Your upper bound of about 1.3 million implies a death rate of about 0.4%.

One difficulty in forecasting these things is we have exogenous impacts coming in all the time: variance in adherence to social distancing, the potential for new antibody testing, the potential for increased coronavirus testing, etc etc.

Nice post.

The real death rate will obviously be very difficult to work out because of the (plethora of) variables which you pointed out, but if you look at countries with the highest test rates, it's much lower. Even still, asymptomatics aren't being tested in meaningful numbers.

The only thing we can do is listen to doctors and the epidemiology experts. They're telling us to practice good hygiene and most importantly social distancing merely to save lives by not overwhelming our hospitals. This is especially hard for a large proportion of Americans because they do not like being told what to do, unless it's done subconsciously.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

The jury is still out on Sweden, it will make an interest test case. Why are you already drawing conclusions?

1. Review all of the data going back to January 21st for new cases in the WHO reports for Sweden referenced in my prior post. The trend in new cases is down in Sweden.


2. Given the economic damage being wrought by these draconian measures, we ought to be drawing conclusions regarding the data now before any further economic damage is caused. The fallout from the economic damage being caused likely will be significantly worse for public health in the long run.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

Nice post.

The real death rate will obviously be very difficult to work out because of the (plethora of) variables which you pointed out, but if you look at countries with the highest test rates, it's much lower. Even still, asymptomatics aren't being tested in meaningful numbers.

The only thing we can do is listen to doctors and the epidemiology experts. They're telling us to practice good hygiene and most importantly social distancing merely to save lives by not overwhelming our hospitals. This is especially hard for a large proportion of Americans because they do not like being told what to do, unless it's done subconsciously.

I disagree the only thing we can do is listen to doctors and the epidemiology experts. As the old saying goes, they can't see the forest for the trees. While their input is valuable, they absolutely should not be the final arbiters on policy. Let's not forget what Dr. Fauci said back on January 21st.

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1246156119938080776


In addition, if the common wisdom regarding locking people in their homes and shutting down all of society is supposed to be the correct solution, then how does one explain the following data:


https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/sta...00508841025542



Furthermore, it seems all doctors and epidemiologists need to be heard, not just the ones who want a total lockdown of society for an indefinite period of time. The following is an interview with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford doctor, which everyone should watch for a different perspective:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UO3Wd5urg0

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

I partly agree with you. Cruise ships are a good example of stale recirculated air, and everyone getting sick.

Summertime means people are practicing natural social distancing, not staying indoors in confined heated spaces.

I do believe (natural) vitamin D is great for the immune system, and Las Vegas might be lucky sunshine is plentiful.

The problem is our economy is Casinos. They need to come together and figure how they can reopen and provide a safe, disease free environment. Maybe free quarantine rooms or something, I don't know.

As soon as instant testing is available, I think things will slowly get back to normal. There is a test being developed that shows 1. If you've had the disease and have the antibodies, 2. Are currently sick and are transmissive, 3. Are not sick. It covers everything but I don't remember exactly what their 3 points were.

Who's going to want to go to a casino anytime soon? Conference? I'd estimate 90% of the relevant population are terrified.

Why is everyone terrified of the flu?

Instant testing? Quarantine rooms?

You've got to be kidding!