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Old 01-14-2012, 04:59 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,166,397 times
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South Carolina Primary: Mitt Romney Opens Up Big Lead In The Palmetto State



Quote:
WASHINGTON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has opened a wide lead over his rivals in the South Carolina primary election race, trouncing Newt Gingrich and gaining momentum in his march toward the party's nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, could all but quash his rivals' presidential aspirations with a victory in South Carolina on Jan. 21 after winning the first state-by-state nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Voters in South Carolina - who have favored Republicans in nine of the last 10 presidential elections - appear to have shrugged off attacks on Romney by rivals who accuse him of killing jobs as a private equity executive for Bain Capital in the 1990s.

The poll showed 37 percent of South Carolina Republican voters back Romney. Congressman Ron Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second place with 16 percent support.

Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives, has fallen far back after holding a strong lead in South Carolina in December. He was in fourth place at 12 percent in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

"In primary races things can change quickly but it does look like Romney is in position to win South Carolina, and if he wins ... that's sort of the end of the road for most of his challengers," Ipsos pollster Chris Jackson said.

Quote:
Asked who they would choose if the nomination contest were solely between Romney and Gingrich, 62 percent of Republicans picked Romney and 30 percent went for Gingrich.

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Old 01-14-2012, 05:01 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,965,821 times
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If this were a horse race, it would be listed as Mitt Romney and the Field (all others combined).

Seriously, w/o better showings, no one deserves to be announced as the 2nd place candidate. They are that far behind.
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Old 01-14-2012, 05:31 PM
 
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Bob, I have been a little concerned about South Carolina so this is great news. Of course, things can always change so until it's a done deal I won't be celebrating.
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Old 01-14-2012, 05:33 PM
 
Location: NJ
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Ditto, I agree it may tighten some, but I have little doubt MR will win it.
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Old 01-14-2012, 07:27 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Most other polls show things quite a bit closer. Also this appears to be an online poll.
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Old 01-14-2012, 07:42 PM
 
Location: SC
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Latest SC polls show Romney 29%; Gingrich 25% and Ron Paul 20% I just heard it on "Free Talk Live". Ron Paul is SURGING.
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Old 01-14-2012, 07:45 PM
 
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It might help if the people knew that they only polled about 800 people and half were democrats for that poll. Of course Democrats want Romney to win SC and win the nomination because they know Obama will tear him a new one. Mr flip flop Romney will get destroyed in a general election...that poll is garbage and we all know it.
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Old 01-14-2012, 07:54 PM
 
Location: The High Seas
7,372 posts, read 16,011,284 times
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I don't understand this at all. Why is Romney, all of a sudden, gaining momentum? Apart from attacking Gingrich, what has he done to start convincing people that he's the one?
4 years ago, I had the same confusion regarding McCain.
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Old 01-14-2012, 08:06 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,184 posts, read 19,455,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dissent View Post
It might help if the people knew that they only polled about 800 people and half were democrats for that poll. Of course Democrats want Romney to win SC and win the nomination because they know Obama will tear him a new one. Mr flip flop Romney will get destroyed in a general election...that poll is garbage and we all know it.
To be fair Democrats were not polled for the Primary portion of the poll also S.C does not register by Party so the Primary is open. With that being said while 800 is generally fine from a Scientific method for polling, the slightly under 400 in the Primary poll is a bit low. Also the bigger issue is this was an online poll.

While not the straight up website polls that can be spammed, online polling can be quite poor even when the general Scientific method parameters are followed. Casing point look at the past history of the Zogby online polls, others as well. Not to mention this poll doesn't seem to match up to the other polls that are out.
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Old 01-14-2012, 08:10 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,184 posts, read 19,455,621 times
Reputation: 5301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snort View Post
I don't understand this at all. Why is Romney, all of a sudden, gaining momentum? Apart from attacking Gingrich, what has he done to start convincing people that he's the one?
4 years ago, I had the same confusion regarding McCain.
Winning the early states does give momentum. However, you also have the anyone but candidates splitting the vote. For awhile one surged, then dropped and then another surged than dropped. Now instead of just one anyone but candidate surging,they have seemed to plateaued and stay in that plateau with each other.

With that being said as I mentioned earlier there are quite a few problems with this poll.
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