[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think this might be yet again…another computer generated fantasy. One of the (many) problems that long range computer models have are they fail to see patterns that seem to be setting up synoptically:

Yes but the storms are happening...the storm for thanksgiving was in the models 10-12 days out.. weak or not its moisture over us.

So hopefully that cold air stays put for a little bit and we get snow to fall.

P.S - I saw heavy snow Nov. 8th for a good 15 minutes... We did have snow falling at 200 feet above sea level so I think all we really need is a cold North Wind and maybe a system from the west.

[Cambium]

Man this thanksgiving storm was close folks..another 10 degrees or a slow down of another day and it could have been snow...wow!! What we don't want is feezing rain anywhere...man I hate to see ice on roadways anywhere...that's heart stopping to even see! But it sounds like northern CT could get some.. I'd say I-84 and above.

THU...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER /BUT BOTH SLOWED DOWN FROM THERE
PREVIOUS RUNS/. COLD DRY AIR WILL BE DAMMED INTO PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A SLOW
SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS BTWN 18Z-00Z FROM KALB SOUTH. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM THE S/SW. WE
TRENDED THE POPS WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE LATE PM BASED ON THESE
TRENDS AND WHAT WE ARE VIEWING IN THE SOUNDINGS. THE MODELS OVER
ACCOUNT FOR QPF /IN THE FORM OF VIRGA/ IN THESE SITUATIONS. HIGHS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. WE WENT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
40-45 RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U30S OVER THE MTNS.

THU NIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE CRITICAL IMPACT PERIOD FOR THE
REGION WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD IT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT AND SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRIMARY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE
PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CRITICAL
PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY A RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF MIXTURE OF SLEET. SOME THE MAJOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY /MID HUDSON VALLEY/.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...CT RIVER VALLEY AND THE ELEVATED
SFCS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...BERKS...AND CATSKILLS COULD
RECEIVED A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE CHANGING TO
LIQUID RAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH LATER ISSUANCES. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED AT OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE MID 20S AND
L30S...AND RISING INTO THE 30S TO L40S BY DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY...THE OCCLUDED FRONT TIED TO THE TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN THE
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SFC WAVES MOVES THROUGH WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW...AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ALSO
BEGINS TO CRANK UP BY THE AFTERNOON.



http://forecast.weather.gov/product....;highlight=off

[wavehunter007]

With temps near 60 F yesterday in the Tri-State area...the ground is just way too warm for any kind of frozon precip to last, even it did fall.

We need a least a week of really cold temps for the ground to get cold. Right now it looks like nothing like that will happen. In fact, it looks like by Monday...temps will once again warm locally. It might might 60 F again by Monday.

[Cambium]

I expect 50s and possible more 60s soon. PNA looks to be dropping again and NAO seems to be going neutral next week...Bad news..Sucks.

So I say rain for next 2 weeks than we'll get back to normal. Then a warm January again.

So forget any snow potential this year in November and early December. UNLESS, we get a system that moves from the North West and a nightime landfall.

[Cambium]

Have any of you guys heard whats happened out west?? Take a look at the insane, massive cold air sweeping down. Its below zero and single digits in manny major cities...snow cover out there is crazy..ITS ONLY NOV. 24TH!

[Miley Tipton]

hi,
Well temperature is better here in avon.. I mean I like winter and specifically little chilling one... because I can wear different style sweaters only in winters :P

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Have any of you guys heard whats happened out west?? Take a look at the insane, massive cold air sweeping down. Its below zero and single digits in manny major cities...snow cover out there is crazy..ITS ONLY NOV. 24TH!

Yeah, Seattle and Portland only usually get 1 or 2 snows/year (they average about 10" of total snow annually) so for them to get snow like this in November is like us getting it in October or mid-late April, extremely rare.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Yeah, Seattle and Portland only usually get 1 or 2 snows/year (they average about 10" of total snow annually) so for them to get snow like this in November is like us getting it in October or mid-late April, extremely rare.

Tell that to wavehunter...apparently he thinks the past stats or average is the only thing that happens. lol I must have shown him 7 different events that have nothing to do with average.

By the way...its snowing in PA.... Did someone say Snow on Thanksgiving ? LMAO...I know...this is the CT board. Close.,..very close again like Earl.

[Cambium]

So Close but yet so far. lol

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Tell that to wavehunter...apparently he thinks the past stats or average is the only thing that happens. lol I must have shown him 7 different events that have nothing to do with average.
By the way...its snowing in PA.... Did someone say Snow on Thanksgiving ? LMAO...I know...this is the CT board. Close.,..very close again like Earl.

No, of course I don’t think that.

However, what I do despise is the ubber hype, spin, misinformation, twisting of synoptic facts, ignoring of climatic averages/historical climate data…etc when it comes to weather forecasting in the USA today.

There is no such thing anymore as a true weather forecast...only a spin to get you to tune in/read the headline. It's sell, Sell, SELL. I’ll stick with synoptic common sense, climatic reality, and historical climatology…before I’ll ever go off the cliff with AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, and the other powers that be….in the wild world of weather hype.


PS. By the way, in the image you posted…some of those colors (both the rain and frozen precip) are not reaching the ground. The air is still too dry to the east of the low (it will take awhile for the atmosphere to moisten up): One of the reasons we (on the East Coast) will see no rain until tonight. The only frozen precip will fall in the high elevations of PA and maybe NY state.