[jp03]

[quote=7 Wishes;21942768]HMM, you said this in October too..... [/QUOT

That October storm makes this winter one to remember for snow no matter what happens. A once in 200 year event...amazing! All the warm air in the world cant replace what occurred. That day had to be a killer for warm winter weather fans.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I was thinking back then (in Oct) that Western Canada was so warm than the first part of winter (maybe December ) would be a bit warmer than normal, and there would be some light snowfall locally.

Now, looking at the MASSIVE ridge of the southeast Coast, the trough setting up just to the west of the Rockies, the positive NAO, and the subtropical jet not even in the picture...I'm going to make a really bold winter forecast:


1) NO SNOW at all till the last days of December 2011. Green XMASS for the Tri-State.

2) January 2012 will see less than 25% of normal snowfall across the Tri-State area.

3) December 2011 will continue the above normal temps at most NWS stations east of 95 West longitude...and esp along the East Coast. NWS BDL, NYC, Bridgeport, Trenton, Atlantic City...etc will have monthly mean temps 1 to 3 F above normal.

4) January 2012 will have monthly mean temps 2 - 5 F above normal at the same above stations.


Once we get to late Jan I'll make my late winter early spring forecast.

No I think you just "wishcast" a little too much......

However, you'll be happy to know that Accuweather's revised forecast isn't that much different (some other article last night said no sticking snow on the I-95 corridor until late Dec., but I can't find it anymore):

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-20112012-winter-1/58451 (broken link)

[Cambium]

Current Temps: Looks like some spots went slightly below the normal minimum temps. Danbury at 25. Hartford at 26 Normal is 28. New Haven under 30. Windsor Locks at 25.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

No I think you just "wishcast" a little too much......

However, you'll be happy to know that Accuweather's revised forecast isn't that much different (some other article last night said no sticking snow on the I-95 corridor until late Dec., but I can't find it anymore):

AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Update (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-20112012-winter-1/58451 - broken link)

True, I might have bias toward to warmer weather…but it’s only because the Connecticut weather page is being dominated by certain people with a pro-snow/pro cold agenda. So you might say I’m the equalizer of giving the truth at least equal time (for those who seek the truth).

As far as sourcing the current thinking about the warm November we had in the East…and why the pattern will STAY WARM in the east….there are a ton of forecasters out there that all seem to be saying the same thing:


AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Siberian Express into the West Next Week (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/siberian-express-into-the-west-next-week/58497 - broken link)

AccuWeather.com - Joe Lundberg | Different, But Somewhat the Same (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Lundberg/different-but-s/58489 - broken link)



This meteorologists forecast (below) seems to say it best. Here is his quote” In the short term, the NAO remains positive and the La Nina weak, which means no East Coast storms and therefore no snow for areas east of the Appalachians through at least midmonth, if not for the entire month of December" :

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Rant About Extremes During Weak La Nina. Yes, snow is coming (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/rant-about-extremes-during-weak-la-nina-yes-snow-is-coming/58538 - broken link)


I think all the meteorologists (esp the last one - watch the vid), show that what I said is pretty on target.

[7 Wishes]

Looks like this fall (NWS uses Sept 1 - Nov 30 as "meteorological fall") was Bridgeport's warmest ever (but it's 3rd snowiest on record, thanks to Oct):

National Weather Service Text Product Display

By the way wavehunter, I think the last article you mention is the one I'm thinking of that said no sticking snow until very late in Dec.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

It looks like a pretty strong cold front will roll through the southern Plains on Mon/Tue. NWS is forecasting Tuesday (December 6th) to be the coldest day in much of Texas…places near the Gulf are forecast to have highs only in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s on Tuesday:

Absolutely... That same front will push through and bring slightly below average temps in the East. Notice the warm air in Canada is gone now.. the bleeding of cold air should be easier to filter down.

Spring is in March...It's now Winter.

[Mixum]

seriously.... why is this guy even mentioning spring??? can we have xmas first?

imo... cambuim >>>> wavesurfer or whatever when it comes to weather

[Cambium]

Mid Week Storm Update (Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday)

3 waves of low pressures will ride up the cold front... First 2 will come when its warm (ALMOST 60 degrees) .. I'm holding my thought since a couple days ago about this being an all Rain event...

Here's NWS latest update: They seem to think a brief mix OR changeover to snow for interior sections...

Complex systems like this require up to the minute monitoring..

PREPARE FOR UNSETTLED MILD WEATHER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES DEVELOP AND MV NE ALONG A SFC
FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THERE COULD BE AT LEAST 2 ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RAINFALL
EAST AND ALONG THIS FRONT. RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY W ND N OF NYC BEFORE ENDING WED NIGHT.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

[Cambium]

Before & During the storm High Temps (left picture) 60s!

After the storms (right picture) Mid 40s next weekend... Still average.
HPC Day 3-7 Maximum Temperature Forecasts

[Cambium]

Some interesting developments for this weeks storm.

My thinking of all rain will hold true as temps behind the front will be 10-12 degrees abovr average. 2 seperate waves of low pressure. The second being lighter then the first.

But... What models are suggesting now is... A third storm.... Cold air to be in place and a storm develops in the south and rides NorthEast for Thursday. Some have nothing, others have light snow.

I'll wait for this afternoons update to give more details.

Short term temps will be above and then return to normal after Wednesday. The long range models have 20s and even teens for CT which I dont believe yet. (i'll post source later)

One thing this year I noticed is that the models tend to overdo the actual cold air. As time gets closer they all adjust warmer. So for some reason this year they cant get a grasp on actual temps. Maybe the atmosphere is that much different.