[MKB0925]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Snowstorm Update February 27-28::

Here is what the German model says... Stays all snow except for immediate coasts in New Haven and New London



Here is what the Canadian model says. Changes to rain for Eastern Half of CT





Here is what the GFS says. Changes to sleet, ice and rain for southern half of CT



Timing is slightly different with each of them
German starts the snow between 10pm Monday and 1am
Canadian between 1-7pm Monday
GFS between 7pm Monday - 1am




Euro comes out around 1pm

Fingers crossed for some snow...I would like one storm this season!

[Cambium]

Remember I was talking about the "main" storm and the coastal storm For Monday-Tuesday?

NWS Upton says if the coastal storm is stronger, than widespread snow would happen. We need that main storm heading towards great lakes NOT to be strong!


If that main(parent) storm is too strong OR the coastal storm is too weak, than its gonna be a changeover event

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

Good agreement on the upper pattern changing heading into early next
week as a southwestern US upper low ejects into the upper plains
Sunday Night into Monday, ahead of digging northern stream shortwave
energy. Still model spread in the amount of phasing between the two
shortwaves, before they slide into the NE US Monday Night into
Wednesday. This manifests in low predictability in details of a
resultant complex low pressure system that will affect the region
late Monday into Tue Night. Where there is good agreement is that a
complex low pressure system with subtropical moisture feed will
affect the region for the Mon Night/Tue time period, bring
increasing potential for heavy precip and gusty winds. The p-type
details remains low predictability, predicated on the aforementioned
interaction of northern and southern stream shortwaves, and
resultant relationship between the weakening parent low and
developing coastal low. SBU ensemble sensitivity pointing towards
the strength/evolution of eastern PAC ridging through this weekend,
having downstream impacts on strength of northern stream shortwave.

A weaker northern stream shortwave and stronger southern stream
shortwave, would point towards quicker and stronger coastal low
development (and quicker weakening of the inland parent low), and
greater potential for accumulating wintry precip areawide. Low
predictability on how this plays out at this time frame, but
potential is there for an accumulating wintry mix across the
interior and wintry mix to rain for city/coast. How quickly the
storm departs late Tue/Tue Night, again will be predicated on the
shortwave strengths/interaction, with more phased solutions (closed
upper low), being slower progressing. Overall though, gradual
improvement in the Tue Night/Wed timeframe.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=1&glossary=0

[WouldLoveTo]

I saw about a half dozen cars, most with MA plates, with a couple of inches of wet heavy snow on their roofs this afternoon. I got on the highway on the back side of the mall in Manchester and was heading west. It was misting in Manchester though.

I opened up my radar map around 11pm last night and saw 75 degrees in Charleston WV! We were at 32.

[Cambium]

Oh look... GFS says March is here, more cold snowy days than warm and rain. I give up

[Cambium]

Interesting that the Euro continues to be colder than the GFS. Usually its the other way around but will the GFS, as usual, cave to the Euro?

Data for Danbury

This doesn't show the 925mb temps (2500') which is important too but you can see how the Euro would be a snowier solution even though less precip

[Cambium]

Don't get the itch yet. We're a long way away from planting anything sensitive outside.


Here's a look at the latest freezes for Bridgeport. I should of done 35° since frost kills too.


Usually Mid May is the safe date to transplant

[Cambium]

Winter is back! Lol

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Don't get the itch yet. We're a long way away from planting anything sensitive outside.


Here's a look at the latest freezes for Bridgeport. I should of done 35° since frost kills too.


Usually Mid May is the safe date to transplant

If you counted 35 instead of 32, then 2020 would've been even more interesting since it was under 35 (and snow flurries!) on May 9!

[Cambium]

Unbelievable!!!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Interesting that the Euro continues to be colder than the GFS. Usually its the other way around but will the GFS, as usual, cave to the Euro?

Data for Danbury

This doesn't show the 925mb temps (2500') which is important too but you can see how the Euro would be a snowier solution even though less precip

Welcome to the Euro world GFS, as usual. GFS00z goes colder similar to the Euro past couple runs



Total snowfall next 2 weeks. I GIVE UP!!!!!!!!!!!


https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...s_ne&dpdt=&mc=