[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

EXACTLY! Maybe the media realized how ridiculous they sounded last year making it seem like the Vortex never split or dropped south. Meteorologists were all over them for that. Looks like they finally got the message.

-13° might be tough but there might be some spots that may touch that.

I tell you... looking at this type of airmass I usually see it coming as we enter mid winter, not meteorological spring. Usually our lows of the year come in January.

And I swear if I seen this being shown in December I'd start talking about how it would be a brutal winter. But because it's happening now, it's hard to say that with March around the corner. Maybe a cold March?

Quincy's Forecast

Of course this is a brutal winter Camb..just because its not spanning the whole winter, we are seeing snowpacks, and temps that are very rare.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Of course this is a brutal winter Camb..just because its not spanning the whole winter, we are seeing snowpacks, and temps that are very rare.

If you include December which is part of "winter's average" it's not. Only since January we been colder. But I was talking about this pattern and airmass coming. If it was happening in November/December I'd feel safe saying buckle up, its gonna be a long ride.

[Cambium]

Canadian Model has some candy for us...

Storm #1 on left. Tommorrow. NO Big Deal. (6th time? LOL)

Storm #2 in middle. Weekend. (don't ask start stop times yet!) More for NYC, Southern CT and Long Island. OH....................... Double those amounts since it will be in the teens! (WOW!)

Storm #3 on right. Mid Week next week. (had rain with yesterdays update as does GFS today) Todays update has snow.

So basically by next Wednesday the Canadian says there will be 2 feet of fresh snow across the area. lol

Watch that weekend storm! I got my eye on that one.

[CT_Native]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Venus is as hot as Mercury despite being twice as far from the sun. And it is strictly because of an atmosphere rich in "greenhouse gases". So there's really no question to the science, it's more how much is what we're doing affecting the climate. There are some complications because many stations used did not exist in the 1800s or even the 1st half of the 1900s, but all the evidence does show the earth has warmed, the only question is how much has been caused by humans and what is the future trend? And how do the other complexities of weather and climate figure into it?

We have twice the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere we had 100 years ago, that too is indisputable. It is still a relatively small amount (on the level of hundreds of parts per million) but anytime we are changing the composition of our atmosphere we should take pause and recognize it's not likely a good thing. Is it so dire that we need to go back to being cavemen to do something about it? Not likely, and that's where I agree its "exaggerated". Should science do nothing about it and let it continue? No, they shouldn't either, we've dealt with fixing pollution before (the ozone layer vs. CFC is a great example) and can do it again.

Originally Posted by Cambium

And how was the concentration during the last global warmup? Gimme a break.

The take away is the fact that Earth's climate systems are changing, and so is the biosphere in which we inhabit -- each are incredibly fragile and complex. The two have also always been changing -- they go hand-in-hand -- and there's no debate over that. As extraterrestrial influences have affected and continue to affect the Earth, so does Earth-originating events and occurrences. Discounting trends and occurrences, as insignificant as they may seem in terms of time and influence, is ignorant. There's simply much we have yet to understand and witness. But looking at the past, what happens in the biosphere significantly affects the atmosphere, therefore, altering and changing climates, therefore metrological events. Also, don't let anyone tell you greenhouse gases don't change the atmosphere/biosphere.

What's in question is how exactly different variables are influencing our biospheres and atmospheres, in the short and long term. Whether "in our control," or not -- let me reiterate, our short life-spans contribute very little to the overall changes in entire climate systems, but we are absolutely contributing to changes -- our societies will be required to adapt to environmental changes moving forward, akin to adaptions made previously as surviving organisms. Now, scientific observations have proven carbon dioxide is becoming more prevalent in our atmosphere, and our globals surface temperatures have been increasing over the past few centuries. What's very hard to do is drawing a line between them, because there's much, much more that exists between and around those two very specific and small facts. They do influence each other, and the atmosphere and biosphere, and likely lots of other variables, both on a short and long term scale, but we don't know for sure how and to what degree -- we've made too simple of a guess.

It's all relative and we're theorizing -- yea, the Earth has been cooling ever since it formed, but you can bet it'll warm up (a lot) once the Sun transitions into a red giant (we should be off the planet before that, I hope, for other reasons). Narrow your time span down to your liking and you'll still see changes in everything. Remember there's always spontaneous events that are not foreseeable/random that could dramatically change things in seconds -- think volcanoes, or solar radiation events. We must not simplify our origins, especially Earth.

I think you'd both agree, keep analyzing the information we have supported by evidence and observation, and continue to make observation of everything.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Of course this is a brutal winter Camb..just because its not spanning the whole winter, we are seeing snowpacks, and temps that are very rare.

Originally Posted by Cambium

If you include December which is part of "winter's average" it's not. Only since January we been colder.

Sorry, I stand corrected after just checking...

It's now officially colder than last year even including the warm December this year. WOW!

Average Winter Temp: (Dec, Jan, Feb)


Islip 6th Coldest on record
Bridgeport 13th Coldest on record
Windsor Locks 24th coldest on record
Boston 26th Coldest on record

Still got 18 days left this year

[Cambium]

I hope you all watch Bernie's videos. Always Good stuff! Watch where he draws the line over CT for his thoughts on the biggest 6"+ threat.

Even if you don't like the technical talk try to watch all of it to understand how a shift south with the storm will mean more of us involved in the bigger snows.

No hype, lots of technical talk and well spoken!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmpJJ7-DZng&feature=youtu.be

[Cambium]

It's looking like this is happening much too far north for a typical winter snowstorm from Philly to Maine or Virginia to Boston. It's not one of those because of where its dropping down. Just too late to round the base and blow up. It would need to happen in Virginia/Del Marva area for a Philly to Boston Snowstorm/Blizzard.

So as this entire winter has been, the trend is NYC north. Pretty dam amazing to see that could happen again where it misses Philly and NJ!!! Nuts

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by CT_Native

The take away is the fact that Earth's climate systems are changing, and so is the biosphere in which we inhabit -- each are incredibly fragile and complex. The two have also always been changing -- they go hand-in-hand -- and there's no debate over that. As extraterrestrial influences have affected and continue to affect the Earth, so does Earth-originating events and occurrences. Discounting trends and occurrences, as insignificant as they may seem in terms of time and influence, is ignorant. There's simply much we have yet to understand and witness. But looking at the past, what happens in the biosphere significantly affects the atmosphere, therefore, altering and changing climates, therefore metrological events. Also, don't let anyone tell you greenhouse gases don't change the atmosphere/biosphere.

What's in question is how exactly different variables are influencing our biospheres and atmospheres, in the short and long term. Whether "in our control," or not -- let me reiterate, our short life-spans contribute very little to the overall changes in entire climate systems, but we are absolutely contributing to changes -- our societies will be required to adapt to environmental changes moving forward, akin to adaptions made previously as surviving organisms. Now, scientific observations have proven carbon dioxide is becoming more prevalent in our atmosphere, and our globals surface temperatures have been increasing over the past few centuries. What's very hard to do is drawing a line between them, because there's much, much more that exists between and around those two very specific and small facts. They do influence each other, and the atmosphere and biosphere, and likely lots of other variables, both on a short and long term scale, but we don't know for sure how and to what degree -- we've made too simple of a guess.

It's all relative and we're theorizing -- yea, the Earth has been cooling ever since it formed, but you can bet it'll warm up (a lot) once the Sun transitions into a red giant (we should be off the planet before that, I hope, for other reasons). Narrow your time span down to your liking and you'll still see changes in everything. Remember there's always spontaneous events that are not foreseeable/random that could dramatically change things in seconds -- think volcanoes, or solar radiation events. We must not simplify our origins, especially Earth.

I think you'd both agree, keep analyzing the information we have supported by evidence and observation, and continue to make observation of everything.

Well said. I will say there are other times the planet has warmed though, it has not constantly cooled since it was formed, this is not the first time in history that it warmed, in fact we've been warming since the 1800s so I never said it's strictly pollution that is doing it. There is also some evidence of a period in the early 1000s (about 1000-1400) where it may have been as warm as today (or in some cases, even warmer at least in some spots, read about early colonization of Greenland by the Vikings). The "exaggeration" behind global warming bothers me, but what also bothers me is most of those calling it out on that also think there's no science to it and it doesn't exist at all. I think it falls somewhere in between those two extremes.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Sorry, I stand corrected after just checking...

It's now officially colder than last year even including the warm December this year. WOW!

Average Winter Temp: (Dec, Jan, Feb)


Islip 6th Coldest on record
Bridgeport 13th Coldest on record
Windsor Locks 24th coldest on record
Boston 26th Coldest on record

Still got 18 days left this year

December was warm but I don't believe it was in top 10 was it? (It may have been for BDR and especially ISP with their shorter record compared to BDL and Boston). It wasn't for Central Park (though I think it was close like 11th or 12th) and Boston and BDL's record is almost as long.

[AntonioR]

This is great because apparently it doesn't looks wintry enough already, nope!

Does anyone knows if the groundhog saw his shadow or not? Anyone??

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by AntonioR

Does anyone knows if the groundhog saw his shadow or not? Anyone??

Yes, but it was cloudy that day. Do people still talk about that?

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

December was warm but I don't believe it was in top 10 was it? (It may have been for BDR and especially ISP with their shorter record compared to BDL and Boston).

December 2014 Average Temp

Bridgeport: 9th warmest December on record
Islip: 9th warmest
Windsor Locks/Hartford: 13th warmest
Providence: 14th warmest
Boston: 20th warmest
Albany: 20th warmest